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The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots square off on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 13 of the season.
The Bills and Miami Dolphins are both 8-3, but the Dolphins hold the tie-breaker while the Patriots are in last place in the division at 6-5.
Here, we’ll look at single-player props and try to determine some individual performances.
The ongoing premise surrounding the Patriots and head coach Bill Belichick is that he’ll do whatever he can to take away the opposition’s best asset. For the Bills, that’s wide receiver, Stefon Diggs.
While that may be a tall task going up against the Bills, they have a solid No. 2 option in Gabe Davis.
Davis has just 33 catches this season, but he’s had 15 over the last three weeks and last scored in Week 10.
In this one, he’ll match up plenty with Patriots cornerback Jalen Mills who’s allowing 60% of his targets to result in a reception.
He’s allowed just two touchdowns all year, but in a game where Diggs will be the primary player to slow down, Davis should benefit from more one-on-one matchups.
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Jones is far from being the best quarterback in the NFL, but getting a +150 price on this prop is something we’ll take a chance on.
Jones hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 8 and, according to Pro Football Focus, has just one turnover-worthy play.
The Bills will be without pass rusher Von Miller in this one, and while there are still talented pass rushers on this team, the loss of Miller will be noticeable.
The Patriots will want to run the ball, as with any game and the Bills have beatable cornerbacks on the outside.
With an average target depth of under eight yards, an emphasis on the run game, and cornerbacks that aren’t exactly imposing, Jones should leave this game clean in the interception column.
There’s no denying it—Stevenson hasn’t been all that potent lately.
The last time Stevenson topped 61.5 rushing yards was Week 8, and he has only cleared this mark twice since Week 6.
However, against the Bills, this could be the spot where he makes that three times since Week 6.
The Patriots know they can’t contend with the Bills offense; thus, the way to win this game will be by keeping the Bills off the field.
They’ll run both Stevenson and Damien Harris, but Stevenson, who’s had 15 or more carries three times since Week 8, will lead the way.
The Bills, as mentioned, are without Miller in this one, and their defensive line has just one player, Ed Oliver, that’s competent against the run.
Stevenson should get plenty of carries in this one. If he can maintain a four-yard-per-carry average, he’ll top this after 15+ carries.
After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.More info on Richard Janvrin
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