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Best Dolphins vs. Chiefs Player Props: Betting Picks for NFL Wild Card Weekend

Written by: Grant Mitchell
Published January 13, 2024
10 min read

The Kansas City Chiefs are hosting the Miami Dolphins in an AFC Wild Card matchup on Saturday evening.

These two teams already met in Germany in Week 9, a game the Chiefs found themselves on top of 21-14. Neither team enters the playoffs in a great run of form, but Kansas City is favored because of its defense and history of success.

Here are a few of our favorite player props from the Dolphins vs. Chiefs Wild Card matchup.

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Dolphins vs. Chiefs Odds

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Team Spread Moneyline Total
Miami Dolphins +4.5 (-110) +190 Over 43.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 (-110) -230 Under 43.5 (-110)

Dolphins vs. Chiefs NFL Wild Card Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa under 231.5 passing yards (-114)

Tua led the league in passing yards but hasn’t been impressive in big moments. He only managed 173 yards against the Buffalo Bills last weekend and went under in two of his last four games.

Not only did the Dolphins only beat one team with a winning record, they’re 0-10 in their last 10 games played at 40 degrees or colder. This game is expected to have a real feel around -20, and Miami’s downfield passing attack is probably going to look very different.

On top of Tua struggling in big moments, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both banged up. The last thing they need is to be asked to sprint downfield in the freezing cold, which sounds like an injury waiting to happen.

Isaiah Pacheco anytime touchdown scorer (-105)

This is going to be an old-school slugfest, and we’re not sure there’s any player who enjoys hard hits and running through contact more than Pacheco. Despite only being 5-foot-10, he’s a human battering ram that will pound the rock into the teeth of the defense.

This game figures to be dominated by the run, again, because of the conditions. Kansas City has a strong offensive line and should take advantage of the injury-induced absences of both Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb.

Pacheco also scored at least once in the Chiefs’ final four games and consistently receives a hefty workload. He’s in a great spot entering the matchup and is our favorite anytime touchdown scorer pick on the board.

Patrick Mahomes under 28.5 rushing yards (-114)

Mahomes often becomes more of a running threat in the postseason—however, he went under this line in five of his last nine playoff games and in five of his last six regular-season matches.

Although the Chiefs’ wide receivers haven’t given Mahomes a ton to work with through the air, we don’t expect to see him use his legs much because of the weather. Health is key, and the last thing Andy Reid wants to see is his half-a-billion-dollar quarterback running for his life.

The Dolphins’ injuries on the defensive line also mean they’re less likely to generate pressure and force Mahomes to scramble out of the pocket, which also sets up nicely for his under.

Tyreek Hill over 6.5 receptions (-136)

How could we possibly bet Tua’s under and Tyreek’s over? It’s simple, really.

The former Chiefs wideout caught seven passes last week while finishing with 82 yards, which was below his projected total. He also caught eight balls but for only 62 yards when these two teams squared off earlier this year in Germany.

We’re tired of beating the same drum, but the weather won’t allow for many downfield shots. Hill should be used on a variety of short and intermediate routes, including screens, which should help him boost his receptions without gaining a ton of yards.

How to Watch Dolphins vs. Chiefs

  • Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

  • When: Saturday, January 13, 7:00/8:00 p.m. CT/ET

  • TV/Streaming: Peacock

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Grant Mitchell

548 Articles

Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.

In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.

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