NFL Week 13 Picks Against the Spread: Predictions, Best Bets, Odds

Odds as of 29 November 2022 at BetMGM

Week 13 Bye Teams

Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers

How to watch: Thursday, 8:15 PM ET, Prime Video

It took a last-minute 36-yard completion from QB Josh Allen to WR Stephon Diggs to set up Buffalo Bills PK Tyler Bass for the game winning 45-yard field goal on Turkey Day, final score 28-25 over the Lions, the Bills now 8-3 and atop the AFC East a game ahead of the Miami Dolphins, giving this divisional matchup with the Patriots even more importance to both teams. 

New England Patriots QB Mac Jones celebrated Thanksgiving by getting sacked three times during the team’s loss to the Vikings, 26-33, a game they had in their pockets going into the fourth quarter, but the Pats 5th ranked defense allowed ten Vikings points while the offense got blanked, not a recipe to win games, especially not against the Bills, the rulers of the AFC East.

The Buffalo Bills have what it takes to beat the Patriots outright in Week 13 but take New England the home team and all those points to cover in front of their rabid fans in Foxboro.

Pick:

Patriots +5.5  (-110) at DraftKings

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)

How to watch: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, CBS

It was touch and go for the Pittsburgh Steelers on MNF as they allowed the Indy Colts back into the game in the second half, but in the end rookie QB Kenny Pickett (20/28, 174 yds) got the job done with great help from the run game featuring Benny Snell (12 car, 62 yds, TD) and Najee Harris (10 car, 25 yds, TD), though at 4-7 the Steelers still sit at the bottom of the AFC North.

The Atlanta Falcons’ 26th-ranked offense led by QB Marcus Mariota could only manage a field goal in the 2nd half of their Week 12 loss to the Commanders, 13-19, and now at 5-7 they still have a chance to win the NFC South where they trail the 5-6 TB Bucs who are in divisional first, so a win over the Steelers is key to their playoff future, no gimmee for Atlanta HC Arthur Smith

The Falcons need this win to stay alive so take them to cover at home against rookie QB Pickett’s Steelers who look shaky even when they win.

Pick:

Falcons -1.5 (-110) at Caesars 

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) vs Chicago Bears

How to watch: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, FOX

The downward spiral is complete, and the Green Bay Packers playoff chances have been shattered after falling to the Eagles on SNF, 33-40, the worse news being that QB Aaron Rodgers left the game due to an injury to his ribs plus his injured thumb, this team now led by backup Jordan Love, the young potential phenom (6/9, 113 yds, TD) looking decent filling in.

The Chicago Bears are 3-9 and their season is essentially over, especially given the injury to QB Justin Fields (shoulder, inactive), with his backup Trevor Siemian coming up short in Week 12 against the Jets who beat them good, 10-31, this divisional matchup with the rival Packers at Soldier Field still a black & blue priority since Chicago loves to kick Green Bay when it’s down.

This will be a better game with Aaron Rodgers (ribs, questionable) and Justin Fields (shoulder, questionable) in but assuming they can’t play take Green Bay’s backup over Chicago’s to cover.

Pick:

Green Bay -2.5 (-110) at BetMGM 

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Detroit Lions (-2)

How to watch: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, FOX

Talk about guts, the Jacksonville Jaguars went for the win in Week 12 going for the two-point conversion instead of the PAT, and QB Trevor Lawrence 29/37, 321 yds, 3 TDs) connected with a quick pass to Marvin Jones, and since the Ravens PK Justin Tucker’s final 67-yard field goal attempt came up short the Jags move to 4-7 and still three games out of first in the AFC South.

The Detroit Lions 32nd ranked defense kept them in their Thanksgiving game until the end when they allowed the Buffalo Bills to kick a game-winning 45 yarder on Thanksgiving, this Dan Campbell team now 4-7 and in need of some more wins as they sit five games behind the Vikings in the NFC North, their postseason hopes resting on taking care of these Jaguars.

The Lions’ defense might struggle against QB Lawrence’s surging passing attack so take the Jaguars and the points to cover in Detroit.

Pick:

Jaguars +2  (-110) at DraftKings 

New York Jets vs Minnesota Vikings (-3)

How to watch: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, CBS

The New York Jets offense was on fire in Week 12 with backup QB Mike White under center who is now starting after Zach Wilson was benched for not taking responsibility for his offensive shortcomings, White leading his team to a 31-10 crushing of the Bears while completing 22/28 for 315 yards and 3 TDs with no turnovers, a big test in Minnesota coming next for these Jets.

It’s been a treat to watch the 9-2 Minnesota Vikings play this season thanks to the QB Kirk Cousins to WR Justin Jefferson connection that has been more than on point most weeks, including a Thanksgiving one-handed snag that helped the team earn their 33-26 win over the Patriots, now ready to face these Jets so Minnesota’s 31st ranked defense must show up.

Depending on who the Jets start at QB, they face a struggling Vikings defense who might not be able to keep up regardless of how many magical catches Jefferson snags so take NY to cover.

Pick:

Jets +3 (-108) at FanDuel

Washington Commanders (-1.5) vs New York Giants

How to watch: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, FOX

The Washington Commanders just won their 3rd game in a row and despite owning a 7-5 record sit in the NFC East basement, which makes this matchup with the Giants all the more critical if they expect to play in the tournament, this team’s 6th ranked defense led by playmakers like DE Montez Sweat and CB Kendall Fuller, their 24th ranked offense in QB Tyler Heinicke’s hands.

The New York Giants went into halftime on Turkey Day a field goal ahead of the Dallas Cowboys thanks to two interceptions of Dak Prescott, but the defense allowed three second-half touchdowns to lose that game, 20-28, so now these 7-4 Giants are two games out of first place of the NFC East, this divisional matchup with Wash. a chance to stack another critical win.

Time to see which of these contenders is for real – take Washington to cover but expect the Giants to keep it close.

Pick:

Commanders -1.5 (-110) at BetRivers 

Tennessee Titans vs Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

How to watch: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, FOX

It will be tough for the Tennessee Titans to stack wins if they can’t get their lead playmaker RB Derrick Henry a big game like what happened last week when the Bengals kept Henry to just 38 yards on 17 carries with no TDs, though he was the team’s leading receiver, a sign that QB Ryan Tannehill must improve his 30th ranked passing attack to give the run game some help.

The 10-1 Philadelphia Eagles snuck by a scary comeback by the Green Bay Packers with a Week 12 SNF win, 40-33, with the help of their superior rushing attack that posted the most rushing yards (363) in an NFL game since 1948, with QB Jalen Hurts leading the way, so the Eagles stay atop the NFC as the potential number one playoff seed, a win here critical to that.

The Eagles 18th ranked run defense could struggle against Titans RB Henry so expect this one to stay close enough for Tennessee to cover.

Pick:

Titans +6 (-110) at Unibet 

Denver Broncos vs Baltimore Ravens (-8)

How to watch: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, CBS

The Denver Broncos continued their downward spiral by losing their third game in a row, this time to another struggling team, the Carolina Panthers, and now the Russel Wilson experiment has yet to pay off as his offense is still coming up short far too often, a tough 3-8 season considering they have the 3rd ranked defense, now stuck in the basement of the AFC West.

The best placekicker in the NFL is Baltimore Ravens Justin Tucker but even he could not connect from 67 yards to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, the team losing 27-28 and dropping to 7-4 though they remain atop the AFC North, barely, so a win over these spiraling Broncos is key to their postseason chances, with QB Lamar Jackson’s legs the key to a victory.

It’s starting to look like Broncos QB Wilson is imploding so don’t count on his offense to score enough to cover against the Ravens in Baltimore.

Pick:

Ravens -8 (-110) at Caesars 

Cleveland Browns (-7) vs Houston Texans

How to watch: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, CBS

It was an OT Week 12 win for the Cleveland Browns over Tom Brady’s Bucs, 23-17, a thrilling game with some incredible pass catches (David Njoku’s one-handed game saver and Amari Cooper’s big catch after a critical drop), this team now 4-7 and still in the Wildcard hunt if their new starting QB Deshaun Watson can win out the season starting with his old Texans team.

What a kick in the teeth this game is to the 1-9-1 Houston Texans who will face their old franchise QB Deshaun Watson, this a chance to embarrass him after his awkward departure, but that could be tough with the worst-ranked offense and defense in the league, a team that looks like they have their sights set on the NFL Draft, though HC Lovie Smith still wants to win.

It’s been a while since Browns QB Watson has stepped on an NFL field, but this is Houston so expect him to return with a vengeance and help his new Cleveland team cover.

Pick:

Browns -7 (-110) at BetMGM

Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) vs Los Angeles Rams

How to watch: Sunday, 4:05 PM ET, FOX

What a heartbreaking way for the Seattle Seahawks to lose in overtime in Week 12 against the Raiders when Seattle’s defense allowed RB Josh Jacobs to escape for a game-winning 86-yard TD run, a productive outing nonetheless for RB Kenneth Walker (14 car, 26 yds, 2 TDs) and WR DK Metcalf (11 rec, 90 yds), the 6-5 franchise 1 game behind the Niners in the NFC West.

Tough Week 12 for the LAs Rams since they had to face the KC Chiefs without their starting QB Matthew Stafford (neck) so his backup Bryce Perkins got the call, and he struggled with turnovers throwing two interceptions in the 10-26 loss that essentially ends their playoff hopes, now on a 5-game losing streak and in last place in the NFC West facing a divisional rival.

Any time the oddsmakers want to be this generous with the home team, take the points and expect the banged up Rams to keep it close enough to cover over the visiting Seahawks.

Pick:

Rams +4.5 (-110) at DraftKings 

Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

How to watch: Sunday, 4:05 PM ET, FOX

The Miami Dolphins offensive line must do better having allowed QB Tua Tagovailoa to get sacked four times in their Week 12 win over the Houston Texans, 30-15, this team with an offense ranked third in the league and a defense ranked 21st, an imbalance that must be evened out by the postseason if HC Mike McDaniel’s 8-3 team expects to dominate the playoffs.

Give credit to the San Francisco 49ers for the Week 12 shutout win over the Saints, 13-0, a low-scoring affair that Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo (26/37, 222 yds, TD) seemed to have in control spreading the ball to eight different receivers including dual-threat RB Christian McCaffrey (4 rec, 17 yds), though fans got a scare when playmaking WR Deebo Samuel tweaked his leg.

The Forty-Niners have too many offensive weapons and too good a pass rush for the Dolphins to stay close enough to cover in front of these San Fran fans.

Pick:

Forty-Niners -3.5 (-110) at FanDuel 

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs Cincinnati Bengals

How to watch: Sunday, 4:05 PM ET, CBS

The Kansas City Chiefs led by HC Andy Reid continue to fire on all cylinders as they earned their 9th win of the season over last year’s Champions, the LA Rams, 26-10, an easy matchup in which QB Patrick Mahomes’ passing attack dominated (27/42, 320 yards, TD, INT) as he and TE Travis Kelce continue connecting for big plays, alone atop the AFC West by three games.

The 7-4 Cincinnati Bengals stay tied for 1st with the Ravens in the AFC North though they are a tiebreaker behind thanks to having less divisional wins, the success of their future a matter of their key playmaker WR Ja’Marr Chase (hip, inactive) to get healthy and return to give QB Joe Burrow his deep threat, this team with a top-6 offense and a top-11 defense facing the Chiefs.

What a game this should be and at this point in the season expect it to be close in the end so take the underdog Bengals and the points to cover at home.

Pick:

Bengals +3 (-113) at BetRivers 

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) vs Las Vegas Raiders

How to watch: Sunday, 4:25 PM ET, CBS

What a thrilling end to the Los Angeles Chargers Week 12 win over the Cardinals, 25-24, their fourth come-from-behind victory of the season, HC Brandon Staley showed guts at the end of the game having his offense led by QB Justin Herbert go for two points for the win, which they converted, moving to 6-5 but still three huge games behind the KC Chiefs in the AFC West.

The Las Vegas Raiders earned their fourth win of the season by the grace of a Josh Jacobs 86-yard touchdown run in overtime, his game numbers (33 car, 229 yds, 2 TDs) an impressive sign that the team’s 23rd-ranked rushing attack is on the mend, but it was QB Derek Carr’s game-winning tears that might motivate this team to give these divisional rival Chargers a tough time.

The Chargers are on the cusp of an AFC Wildcard playoff spot and the Raiders might be too banged up to do anything about it so take Los Angeles to cover in Vegas.

Pick:

Chargers -2.5 (-110) at Unibet 

Indianapolis Colts vs Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)

How to watch: Sunday, 8:20 PM ET, NBC

At times on MNF, Indy Colts QB Matt Ryan looked every bit of his 37 years old as he led his team to a 2nd half comeback that fell short of a win, but it shows that this 4-7 team is better with him under center and with interim HC Jeff Saturday in charge, though they must get better converting on third downs (3/12 in that loss, ranked 26th in 2022), now facing a tough Week 13.

Despite Cowboys QB Dak Prescott throwing two first half interceptions on Thanksgiving Day, his team still got the win over the Giants, 28-20, keeping them one game behind the Eagles in the NFC East so they will be hungry for this Week 13 win over the Colts, the home field advantage in Arlington always a big help as their Zeke Elliott / Tony Pollard run game rolls on.

The Cowboys should win this home game outright but with that many points from the oddsmakers, take Indy and their 4th ranked defense to at least keep it close enough to cover.

Pick:

Colts +9.5 (-110) at Caesars 

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6)

How to watch: Monday, 8:15 PM ET, ESPN

Not a good sign when your offense gets kept off the scoreboard in Week 12 like the New Orleans Saints did by the 49ers, 0-13, a loss in which the Saints’ rushing attack was neutralized to just 63 total yards, though QB Andy Dalton did not fare much better (18/29, 204 yds), this team now 4-8 and in last place in the NFC South, though just by one game so a win here is big.

Tom Brady faced his old backup last week – Browns QB Jacoby Brissett – and lost the game in OT, 17-23, sacked three times, one less than what his defense posted against Brissett, the best receiver on the field that game Chris Godwin (12 rec, 110 yds, TD) because Mike Evans was essentially neutralized (3 rec, 31 yds), Tampa Bay still barely in first place of the NFC South.

Tom Brady’s Bucs must win to stay alive for the postseason so expect him to lead Tampa Bay past these offensively struggling Saints by enough to cover at home.

Pick:

Buccaneers -6 (-105) at BetMGM