NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread: Predictions, Best Picks, Odds

TNF Pick: Buccaneers vs Eagles

Odds from Caesars Sportsbook.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
TB Buccaneers -7.0 (-110) -320 O 52 (-110)
PHI Eagles +7.0 (-110)
+250 U 52 (-110)

It was an NFL Week 5 filled with missed field goals and botched extra points, blown penalty calls and failed game plans, a resigned head coach, plus scrambling, hurdling quarterbacks and halfbacks, and unfortunate, gruesome injuries with some shocking losses and amazing wins thrown in for good football measure.

If you’re a fan of the Buffalo Bills or L.A. Chargers or Arizona Cardinals you’re on cloud nine right about now, but if you root for the Browns or the Jags or the Chiefs or the Raiders you might be asking some critical questions instead.

Of course, if you put big money on the Cowboys or the Bucs or the Titans or the Saints your betting kitty is probably as swollen as your gambler’s pride, and for the rest of us, there’s always NFL Week 6 filled with fourteen good looking matchups (and four bye weeks) with plenty of generous odds included if we can find them.

Here are our NFL Week 6 predictions, picks, spreads, and odds – good luck, let’s win big!

NFL Week 6 Byes
Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans Saints
New York Jets
San Francisco Giants

Thursday, October 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles (+7)

How to watch: Thursday, 8:20 PM ET, FOX + NFL Network

The 4-1 Buccaneers handled the Dolphins easily in Week 5, 45-17, but now Tampa Bay GOAT QB Tom Brady is dealing with a thumb issue that could have used a few more days of recovery time to heal, but he will play on Thursday against these Eagles and continue his supreme connection with receivers Antonio Brown, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin until Gronk’s ribs finally heal up enough for him to play.

The 2-3 Eagles took down the McCaffrey-less Panthers last week despite Philly’s second-year QB Jalen Hurts not throwing any touchdowns passes but managing an interception, though Hurts legs are his bright spot scoring two touchdowns while scrambling, but against Tampa Bay he might want to depend more on targets DeVonta Smith, Quez Watkins, and tight end Dallas Goedert if they hope to outscore Brady’s bunch.

The Bucs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games against NFC opponents so take the points and the Eagles and hope their defense can keep it close.


Eagles +7 (-110)

Sunday, October 17

Miami Dolphins (-3.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars

How to watch: Sunday, 8:30 AM ET, CBS

In this London-based matchup of who cares versus so what, the 1-4 Miami Dolphins look like they’re crumbling apart after getting brutalized by the Bucs last week, 17-45, the Tua-less Phins with just 39 yards of rushing and 3 sacks allowed, a pick thrown, and a fumble lost, they may have found their match against these winless Jaguars who are beatable but also incredibly desperate for a win.

It’s Miami’s veteran backup QB Jacoby Brissett taking on Jacksonville’s rookie under center, Trevor Lawrence, who has yet to notch a professional win despite having a rocket arm and above-average football IQ, his main struggle now being a head coach, Urban Meyer, who is struggling to acclimate to the professional level after having been in godlike charge of his college teams as they became winners.

Miami has covered the spread in eight of their last ten games following a loss, so take them at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and expect them to hand the Jaguars their 21st loss in a row.


Dolphins -3.5 (-110)

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears (O45)

How to watch: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, CBS

The 4-1 Green Bay Packers barely squeaked by the Cincinnati Bengals last week and but for (more than) a few botched kicks from both sides, they might be 3-2 right now, although QB Aaron Rodgers is still putting up MVP numbers with the help of receiver Davante Adams, the two connecting 11 times in Week 5 for over 200 yards and a touchdown, offensive production that might not come as easy against this Bears’ 9th ranked defense.

Chicago has undergone a shift under center, with head coach Matt Nagy finally handing the starting reins over to rookie Justin Fields, who seems to get better at the pro level every week he is given the chance, and he threw his first NFL touchdown last week to an unlikely hero, backup tight end Jesper Horsted, the Bears needing their defense to manhandle Rodgers and company if they expect to earn this NFC North win.

Nine of the Packers’ last ten games after coming off overtime have gone over the total points line, so take the over on this game.


O45 (-110)

Cincinnati Bengals vs Detroit Lions (O48.5)

How to watch: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, FOX

These Bengals should have beaten the Packers in Week 5 but their surefooted placekick Evan McPherson blew the game-winner and Cincinnati ended up losing to an enemy field goal, but what is obvious is that there are offensive leaders now in Cincy, from head coach Zach Taylor to quarterback Joe Burrow to rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase and tight end C.J. Uzomah, and as their defense grows this team could be danger in the AFC North.

Right about now Detroit’s new quarterback Jared Goff is most likely wondering what he did to deserve being traded to the 0-5 Lions, though his lack of touchdown passes and the interception thrown in Week 5’s 17-19 loss to the Vikings are probably a clue, his offense couldn’t break 290 total yards and they only managed a single touchdown in the loss, something they need to fix if they expect to take care of these feisty Bengals.

Six of the Bengals’ last seven games as favorites have gone over the total points line, so take the over here and figure these two will shoot it out.


O48.5 (-110)

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Houston Texans (+10) vs Indianapolis Colts

How to watch: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, CBS

Give Houston Texans’ rookie quarterback Davis Mills his due credit after his stellar Week 5 performance against the strong defense of the Patriots, completing 21-of-29 passes for 312 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions, now if only his team’s rushing attack can start producing, last week only rushing the ball for 67 total yards in the loss, the Texans a 1-4 team that seems to be at the beginning of their rebuild.

The 1-4 Colts should have won their second game of the year on Monday Night Football but their placekicker Rodrigo Blankenship who was dealing with a hip issue missed a last-second game-winner and they fell to the Ravens in overtime, but Indy quarterback Carson Wentz had a huge game regardless completing 25/35 passes for over 400 yards and two touchdowns with no turnovers, offensive momentum they must bring home in Week 6.

The Texans might lose but take them and all those points and figure Mills will get them close enough to cover.


Texans +10 (-110)

Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) vs New York Giants

How to watch: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, FOX

The Rams were on the road last week as well, taking care of the Seahawks 26-17 with quarterback Matthew Stafford throwing for a touchdown and a pick while connecting with receiver Robert Woods a dozen times for 150 yards, plus WR Cooper Kupp is also dangerous but L.A.’s rushing attack must start kicking in and help offset the passing game that head coach Sean McVay prides himself in, this 4-1 team probably not too nervous about this Week 6 matchup with the shaky Giants.

The Giants were already struggling before the injury bug smacked them in various body parts, with quarterback Daniel Jones now in concussion protocol, running back Saquon Barkley doubtful with a serious ankle sprain, and receiver Kenny Golladay now questionable with a banged-up knee, the 1-4 Giants better hope their noisy New York hometown crowd can make up the difference against this talented Rams team that will be tough to beat.

These Giants have lost all but one of their last ten matchups as underdog and there is no reason to believe this week will be any different so take the Rams to cover the widespread.


Rams -10.5 (-110)

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) vs Washington FT

How to watch: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, CBS

Nobody is truly sure what is ailing these 2-3 Chiefs except that their defense is underperforming, and their offense led by (former?) magician Patrick Mahomes can no longer just outscore everybody since other teams are beginning to figure out how to neutralize his best targets – speedy receiver Tyreek Hill and the YAC capable tight end Travis Kelce – a fix that defensive coordinator had best soon figure out.

For the 2-3 Washington Football Team to begin winning games, they had better get their quarterback Taylor Heinicke to stop throwing picks – he had two in Week 5 and has five interceptions altogether – and to start completing passes after missing on over half his targets in the team’s Week 5 loss to the Saints, the team needing to get better at converting on third down.

If the Chiefs expect to rise in the AFC West anytime soon, they need to start with a Week 6 pummeling of the Washington Football Team, so take them here to do just that.


Chiefs -6.5 (-110)

Minnesota Vikings vs Carolina Panthers (-1.5)

How to watch: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, FOX

The outcome of this game will depend heavily on how certain injuries pan out including with Vikings’ running back Dalvin Cook (ankle, questionable) and Carolina running back Christian McCaffrey (hamstring, questionable), two productive players who can swing a game their way, although that’s what Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins was also doing until he skipped a few beats in the last few losses throwing uncharacteristic picks and missing targets.

Speaking of interceptions, Panthers’ new quarterback Sam Darnold threw three of them last week in the team’s close loss to the Eagles, so whatever is ailing him (a lack of McCaffrey?), he needs to counter by getting busier with targets D.J. Moore and dual-threat back Chuba Hubbard who can catch balls like a receiver while running hard out of the backfield.

The Vikes have lost all but one of their last five road games and they have failed to cover the spread in all but two of their last dozen matchups, so take the Panthers for this close one.


Panthers -1.5 (-105)

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Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens (-3)

How to watch: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, CBS

The Chargers could have easily lost to the Browns in Week 5 but they didn’t thanks to the head-turning play of quarterback Justin Herbert who threw for four touchdowns and no interceptions in that win for almost four hundred yards while scrambling for first downs and even a touchdown while his killer running back Austin Ekeler gives defenses something else to worry about and game plan around, this 4-1 L.A. team AFC trouble for sure.

After basically losing to the Colts all game, the Ravens won in overtime during Week 5 Monday Night Football thanks in large part to the arm of QB Lamar Jackson (37/43, 442 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INT) and the receptions and two touchdowns each from TE Mark Andrews and WR Marquise Brown, an offense that is never quite out of the game, though against these Chargers they might not get as many chances as Indy gave them.

The Ravens defense will keep it close, and Lamar Jackson’s legs will cover the spread at home against these talented Chargers.


Ravens -3 (-110)

Arizona Cardinals vs Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

How to watch: Sunday, 4:05 PM ET, FOX

Few teams stay unbeaten in the NFL, so even the 5-0 Cardinals should lose a few games this season, although they do look unbeatable with their scrambling QB Kyler Murray finding success hooking up with WRs DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, and Christian Kirk, a team whose biggest weakness right now is their 14th ranked defense that seems to struggle against the run, not good news against this Cleveland team.

The 3-2 Browns could easily be undefeated as well, but they have not closed the deal when it matters, so expect them to come home to Cleveland and let their two-heated rushing monster nicknamed CHUNT (Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt) rush all over the Cardinals weak run defense while QB Baker Mayfield and his head coach Kevin Stefanski figure out how to convert on fourth down.

This could be the perfect storm between a powerful rushing attack and a struggling run defense, so take the Browns at home to cover the minor spread.


Browns -2.5 (-115)

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos (U44.5)

How to watch: Sunday, 4:25 PM ET, CBS

The 3-2 Las Vegas Raiders’ head coach Jon Gruden has “resigned” due to offensive emails and the team seems to be crumbling as QB Derek Carr failed to throw for a touchdown pass last week while tossing a pick, his offense posting less than 260 total yards in that Week 5 loss to the Bears with only 71 yards gained on the ground, offensive production that won’t cut it against these Broncos who only let opponents score about 15 points per game.

Should be fun to watch the 3-2 Broncos’ defense matchup against the Raiders offensive targets (Hunter Renfrow, Henry Ruggs, Darren Waller) as Denver’s journeyman quarterback Teddy Bridgewater continues to rediscover his NFL mojo, the seven-year veteran now completing almost 70 percent of his passes with 7 for touchdowns and zero for interceptions, he and Courtland Sutton ready for a breakout season.

Eight of the last nine matchups between these two teams have gone under the total points line so take the under in this one and expect their defenses to reign supreme.


U44.5 (-110)

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots (+4)

How to watch: Sunday, 4:25 PM ET, CBS

Well, there is no doubt that the Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is back where he was before his season-ending injury last year, his arm on fire last week against divisional rivals, the New York Giants, tossing 22 completions on 32 targets for over 300 yards and three touchdowns with a pick, the team’s running back duo Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard keeping each other rested throughout the game so that the fourth quarter is horrible on whoever they play.

Right now the New England Patriots have a defense ranked 5th best in the league but they do better against the pass (5th) than against the run (14th), a difference that the Cowboys will most likely exploit as the Pats’ rookie quarterback Mac Jones continues to grow into the type of QB that head coach Bill Belichick pictures, one who can begin to stack wins for the struggling franchise.

Given that the Pats have won each of their last four matchups with NFC East opponents and that the Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as road favorites, take New England and the points here in Foxboro.


Patriots +4 (-110)

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Seattle Seahawks (+4.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers

How to watch: Sunday, 8:20 PM ET, NBC

Maybe a change of scenery and a few extra days of game prep is what the Seahawks need after getting beaten at home by the Rams last Thursday night, 17-26, although with QB Russell Wilson (finger) out and backup Geno Smith in, their chances against this pumped up Steelers defense at home quickly shrinks, Seattle’s 32nd ranked defense about to get a taste of what Pittsburgh has been offensively cooking.

Any doubters of Big Ben Roethlisberger’s surgically repaired throwing arm must have been shocked to watch him launch bombs in the team’s Week 5 win over the Broncos connecting with Chase Claypool five times for 130 yards and a touchdown while rookie running back Najee Harris continues to find his NFL legs, last week averaging 5.3 yards a carry as he rushed the ball 23 times for 122 yards and touchdown.

This game could get out of hand depending on whether the Steelers offense shows up at home, but they have lost their last five games as favorites, so take the Seahawks and the points.


Seahawks +4.5 (-105)

Monday, October 18

Buffalo Bills (-4.5) vs Tennessee Titans

How to watch: Monday, 8:15 PM ET, ESPN

Well the AFC seems to have a new best team roaming the league, the Buffalo Bills looking like champions already against the former champ Chiefs last week in that Sunday night shellacking Buffalo gave, 38-20, while hurdling QB Josh Allen shows MVP qualities, tossing for three touchdowns and completing 15 passes for 315 yards and no picks, he and his best friend tight end Dawson Knox onto something together connecting 3 times for 117 yards and a touchdown in that win.

Looks like Derrick Henry is up to his old rushing tricks again, last week carrying the ball 29 times for 130 yards and three touchdowns while seeming impossible to tackle, with his steady quarterback Ryan Tannehill also shining in that Week 5 victory over the pathetic Jags, completing 14/22 passes for almost 200 yards and a touchdown with no picks, he and A.J. Brown beginning to solidify their connection, necessary production if they expect to compete with these Bills.

Expect the Bills to continue to roll as they cover the spread against these Titans on national TV.


Bills -4.5 (-110)

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Mike Lukas

Expert on NFL

Mike Lukas is a retired standup comedian turned freelance writer now living in Dallas, Texas, originally from Cleveland, Ohio. His love for the game of football and all things Cleveland Browns turned Mike into a pro blogger years ago. Now Mike enjoys writing about all thirty-two NFL teams, hoping to help football gamblers gain a slight edge in their pursuit of the perfect wager. Email: [email protected]