NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread: Predictions, Best Bets, Odds 2023

NFL Week 4 marks the first month of the 2023 season, and the storylines are already taking shape.

The Cincinnati Bengals have gotten off to a slow start due to the waning health of Joe Burrow, while the Miami Dolphins are the talk of the town after scoring 70 points against the Denver Broncos.

Here, we’ll review the odds and give our best bets against the spread for every game in NFL Week 4. Buckle up, here we go.

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NFL Week 4 Odds

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Detroit Lions (-1.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (+1.5) 

The Lions improved to 2-1 with a 20-6 win over the Atlanta Falcons last week. Jared Goff is fourth in the NFL with a 71.2 QBR, and the defense has gone from one of the three worst in the entire league in 2022 to rankings 11th in yards and 13th in points allowed.

The Packers have enjoyed a fruitful start to the season and are also 2-1 and tied for the NFC North lead. Both of their last two outings have been decided by one point, one in a 25-24 loss to the Falcons, and last week, an 18-17 win over the New Orleans Saints.

Jordan Love has filled in admirably for the start of the post-Aaron Rodgers era and has thrown seven touchdowns and only one interception thus far. The Packers’ defense is also just about the same as the Lions in the rankings, which is why the spread is essentially a pick’em. We’ll take the Lions on the slightest of margins because of Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness, but this could be a spot for the Packers to show they’re serious division contenders.

Lions vs. Packers pick: Lions -1.5

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Atlanta Falcons (+3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)

The Falcons are 2-1 but are still figuring out how to best utilize their weapons on offense. Eighth-overall pick Bijan Robinson has already made several highlight plays, and the receiving corps, though the production has not been there, is overwhelmingly talented. The key to fully unlocking the offense will be getting Desmond Ridder to push the ball down the field, though the jury is out on him being the long-term solution.

The Jaguars were expected to cruise to an AFC South title but find themselves at 1-2 following a loss last week to the Houston Texans. Trevor Lawrence has failed to continue the momentum it garnered in the back half of last year (three touchdowns, two interceptions, 41.6 QBR in three games) and the young defense has not progressed like it needed to.

This is a situation of one team playing much better than a team that should be objectively better. We’ll side with the Jags because they can be explosive through the air, but we’d be lying if we said the Falcons didn’t look like the better of the two to start the year.

Falcons vs. Jaguars pick: Jaguars -3

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Miami Dolphins (+2.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (-2.5)

The Dolphins scored 70 points, are undefeated, and have the MVP favorite at quarterback, yet they’re underdogs to a division rival. That speaks to both the faith the oddsmakers have in the Bills, and also that the oddsmakers are not yet getting swept up in the storm that is the 2023 Miami Dolphins.

The Bills started the year with a dreadful loss to the New York Jets but bounced back with wins against the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders by a combined score of 75-13. The defense is second in points and yards allowed, while Josh Allen has been bad, spectacular, and average.

The Dolphins will falter eventually, and they are getting a tough test on the road in Buffalo, but we think their offense is too hot to slow down. They can win by going over the top, dominating the short game, or running the ball, as they have shown in all three games. Their defense still needs work, but it is coming off of its best game of the year in which it allowed 13 offensive points to the Denver Broncos.

Dolphins vs. Bills pick: Dolphins +2.5 

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Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (+2.5)

Joe Burrow is clearly not himself, and that’s the bottom line. The Bengals’ star led a win on Monday Night Football but has very limited mobility and is on pace for career worsts in completion percentage, QBR, passing yards, and touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Titans were blown out by the Browns last week but have traditionally been a stout team under Mike Vrabel. They lack big-play makers (aside from Derrick Henry) and have a need for a long-term solution at quarterback, but they’re still 2-1 ATS and started last year 8-2 ATS.

We absolutely love the under in this game, and that is our favorite pick. But if we’re looking for a lean on the spread, we still have a tough time backing an immobile and fragile QB going against a tough defense. Vrabel will have his boys ready to play after an embarrassing loss last week, and we’ll go with the Titans.

Bengals vs. Titans pick: Titans +2.5

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Denver Broncos (-3.5) vs. Chicago Bears (+3.5)

And, now the team that lost by 50 points to the Dolphins: the Broncos. Sean Payton said last year was one of the worst coaching jobs in NFL history and he’d be livid if this squad did not make the playoffs, yet he finds himself sitting at 0-3 with a regressing defense and a quarterback past his prime (but one that is playing better than last year).

The Bears are also a total mess, just like the spread implies. Justin Fields is averaging 175.3 passing yards per game and has four total touchdowns and four interceptions to go with a 21,5 QBR that ranks 34th… of 32 teams. The defense has also surrendered 35.3 points per game, the second-most in the league (Denver is last with 40.7 per game).

This could easily be the worst matchup of Week 4. The Broncos are overwhelmed by gross incompetence, but the Bears can’t seem to do anything right. Both teams are 0-3 straight-up and also 0-3 against the spread, so we’ll take the Bears purely because they’re being spotted points at home.

Broncos vs. Bears pick: Bears +3.5

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Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

The Ravens were victimized by a missed pass interference call on fourth down in overtime against the Indianapolis Colts last week. That was their first loss of the year despite the team suffering several key injuries early in the year. Lamar Jackson has only thrown two touchdowns (both against the Bengals) but did run for 101 yards last week, and his QBR is in the top half in the league.

The Browns are also 2-1 and just beat the Titans 27-3. Deshaun Watson played the best game of his Browns career last Sunday, racking up 289 yards and two touchdowns despite the running game only combining for 78 yards on 31 carries. The defense was excellent and generated five sacks while only allowing 94 yards of total offense.

The Browns look like they have a top-five defense in the NFL, and the Ravens are not as potent offensively as they were expected to be. At the same time, the Ravens are eighth in points allowed (Cleveland is first), and Ravens coach John Harbaugh is 45-30-3 (59.6%) against the spread as an underdog. We respect what the Browns have done, but without Nick Chubb, we like the Ravens to squeak out a close one.

Ravens vs. Browns pick: Ravens +2.5

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Los Angeles Rams (+1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (-1)

The Rams started the year well but fell flat on their face on Monday Night Football against an injured Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Matt Stafford threw two interceptions, and the team did not convert a single third down until the final minutes of the fourth quarter.

The Colts have enjoyed a solid start to the season with wins coming under different quarterbacks, Anthony Richardson and Gardner Minshew. Richardson’s status is unknown at the time of writing, which will inevitably affect which side of the line we’re on.

Although the Rams were a let-down on Monday, we like them better than a Minshew-led offense or one fronted by Richardson shortly after he suffered a concussion. Wait to see who starts at QB for the Colts, but lean towards the Rams.

Rams vs. Colts pick: Rams +1 

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) vs. New Orleans Saints (-3)

The Buccaneers undid lots of the goodwill they built in the first two weeks with an embarrassing home performance against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football. The offensive line could not hold up, Baker Mayfield only threw for 146 yards, and the running game was held to 41 total yards.

The Saints just lost 18-17 to the Packers in a hard-fought affair that saw Derek Carr leave with an AC joint sprain. Backup Jameis Winston looked sharp when he stepped in, just as expected from one of the best backup QBs in the league. The defense is sixth in points allowed, yet the team is 0-2-1 ATS.

Even if Carr is a scratch, Winston is arguably just as capable and will have extra motivation to face his former team. Mayfield impressed early in the year but has thrown for less than 175 yards in two of three games, and the defense just gave up 471 yards of total offense. The Saints are rightfully favored, but laying the field goal isn’t something we’re willing to do.

Buccaneers vs. Saints pick: Buccaneers +3

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Washington Commanders (+7) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-7)

What do we make of the Commanders? They pulled off fourth-quarter comebacks in their first two games of the season before fling 37-3 at home to the Buffalo Bills during alumni weekend. Sam Howell finally had his first truly bad game and threw four interceptions, while the stout defense forced a turnover but was gashed by numerous big plays. 

The Eagles were resoundingly unimpressive during the first two weeks but dominated the Bucs in Week 3 and are now 3-0 and 3-0 ATS. The offense is blending the run and pass with greater ease, and the pass defense finally tightened up after allowing 300+ yards in each of the first two games.

The Eagles have won nine of the last 12 encounters with the Commanders, and Jalen Hurts is only 10-3-1 ATS as a home favorite. Washington has proven that it can be competitive but is reliant on late-game comebacks, which means they’ll probably look for a backdoor cover. We don’t foresee that coalescing on the road.

Commanders vs. Eagles pick: Eagles -7

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Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (+3.5)

The Vikings are 0-3 despite Kirk Cousins playing arguably the best football of his career. The 35-year-old QB leads the league with 1,075 passing yards and nine touchdowns but has two crucial interceptions and is only 12th in QBR. The Vikings’ defense has not shown much improvement on last year even under new defensive coordinator Brian Flores and is 26th in points allowed.

The Panthers are also 0-3 and have a major question mark at quarterback. First-overall pick Bryce Young is averaging less than 150 yards per game and has only thrown two touchdowns in two games. Young missed last week with an ankle injury and could be out again, which would leave veteran backup Andy Dalton in line to start if needed. 

The Panthers’ defense is only one spot from Minnesota’s in points allowed and just surrendered 37 points to the Seahawks last week. We don’t trust either a Dalton or Young-led offense to keep pace with Cousins and the high-octane Vikings at home.

Vikings vs. Panthers pick: Vikings -3.5

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Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) vs. Houston Texans (+3)

The Steelers have proven that they don’t need to score a ton of points to win games. They struggled to move the ball all of last year but still finished with nine wins while also missing their best player, T.J. Watt, for seven games. The offense looks a little better than it did last year, and the defense is giving up a lot of yards, but they get sacks and can score touchdowns even if the ball doesn’t start in their hands.

The Texans have been one of the surprises of the league. Though they are only 1-2, they’ve turned in three solid performances. The defense looks improved on last year, and C.J. Stroud is top-five in passing yards and is yet to throw an interception.

The Steelers should win, but they also don’t have the kind of offense that makes us comfortable laying a field goal against a young and impassioned Texans group coming off a momentous win over the Jaguars. The Steelers also play much better as underdogs, and we’re interested to see how they do against a team that wants the fight.

Steelers vs. Texans pick: Texans +3

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Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5)

We sounded the alarm last week that the Raiders, who were favored by a field goal, were primed to fall to the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. That’s exactly what happened, and Vegas now ranks 24th in points allowed and 29th in scoring. Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown at least one interception in every game, and the defense continues to miss the presence of Chandler Jones.

The Chargers won the battle of the winless teams against the Vikings last week and are finally on the board. They both score and allow 29 points per game and still have a serious question mark in the form of head coach Brandon Staley.

The Chargers’ terrible defense is unlikely to be a major concern against a team with as many offensive woes as the Raiders have. Justin Herbert just completed 40 of 47 passes for 405 yards and three touchdowns, and we expect him to stay hot at home. 

Raiders vs. Chargers pick: Chargers -5.5 

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New England Patriots (+7) vs. Dallas Cowboys (-7)

Mac Jones has at least returned to the rookie version of himself and is playing better than he did in 2022, but he’s still been just about league-average. He and the Pats picked up their first win of the season last weekend against the Zach Wilson-led Jets but now get their toughest test of the season against the Cowboys.

Dallas, as it turns out, has not kicked its bad habit of haphazardly falling flat on its face. They lost to the Cardinals 28-16 and need to bounce back quickly before fans start to turn on Dak Prescott, who threw his first terrible interception of the campaign a year after he led the league in picks.

The Cowboys’ defense was supposed to be excellent but looked lost without the presence of the injured Trevon Diggs at corner. Their run defense is also a real concern, especially if it means Micah Parsons becomes less impactful as a pass-rusher. We think the seven-point spread is a fair price, but we’ll take the Cowboys to cover (but will be nervous in doing so).

Patriots vs. Cowboys pick: Cowboys -7

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Arizona Cardinals (+14) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-14)

The Cardinals have our respect. They’ve held fourth-quarter leads in all three games and just beat the Cowboys by two scores as 12.5-point underdogs. That said, they are huge underdogs once again for a reason…

Not only have the 49ers looked like the best team in the league; not only are they a head-scratching field goal away from being 3-0 against the spread; not only are they the Super Bowl favorites; but they are playing at home after an extended week of rest since they played on Thursday Night Football last week. That’s a brutal math equation for the Cardinals, who entered the year with the lowest projected win total.

The Cardinals are a perfect 3-0 against the spread, but it’s time for that to change. San Fran is third in scoring and fifth in points allowed and has ample time to prepare for their upcoming matchup. Brock Purdy is also 8-3 ATS as a starter, and he’s about to be 9-3.

Cardinals vs. 49ers pick: 49ers -14

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Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) vs. New York Jets (+9.5)

This is the best defense that Patrick Mahomes has had in his career. The Chiefs rank fourth in points allowed despite having the youngest average starting defense in the league and just annihilated the Bears 41-10 last week. The offensive concerns that were present at the start of the year are also starting to dissipate.

The Jets are approaching a point of crisis. Zach Wilson has the lowest completion percentage and passer rating in the league, which reportedly has the Jets locker room on the verge of an implosion. They have not won since opening night and, since starting last year 6-3, are just 2-9.

Patrick Mahomes is only 1-8 ATS as a road favorite of more than seven points in his career. But with all of the internal dissension brewing in the Jets’ locker room combined with Wilson’s inability to command the offense, we think that the Chiefs will secure at least a double-digit win.

Chiefs vs. Jets pick: Chiefs -9.5

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Seahawks (+1.5) vs. Giants (-1.5)

The Seahawks left a sour taste in the mouths of many when they were embarrassed by the Rams in Week 1, but they’ve bounced back with a pair of wins and rank fourth in scoring offense. Bobby Wagner and Devon Witherspoon are yet to have the desired effect on the defense, which is the number one concern.

The Giants have had a less-than-desirable start to their year. A 40-0 nothing loss to the Cowboys and a blowout loss to the 49ers were offset by a miracle comeback against the Cardinals, but this team still looks like it will struggle to make the playoffs for the second straight year. They’re 0-3 ATS and have the second-worst scoring differential in the league. 

Since 2005, teams that are 0-3 ATS and that are favored in Week 4 are 16-8 ATS—that means the precedent is on the side of the Giants here. We believe the Giants have more to show and they can make this game competitive, especially against a weak Seahawks defense, but Geno Smith is quietly playing at a top-10 level yet again and is our pick to quarterback a win and cover.

Seahawks vs. Giants pick: Seahawks +1.5

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