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NFL Super Bowl LVIII Picks Against the Spread: 49ers vs. Chiefs Predictions, Best Bets, and Odds

Written by: Grant Mitchell
Updated January 31, 2024
8 min read

The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will clash in Super Bowl LVIII in their second meeting in the NFL’s championship match in the last five years.

The Chiefs arrived in the Super Bowl after an uncharacteristic regular season that saw them finish 1-4 against playoff teams and in the third seed in the AFC. However, they dominated all three playoff opponents and won the last two outright as underdogs, giving them both momentum and extra motivation since they’re being counted out.

The Niners earned the top seed in the NFC but are yet to play like the best team in the conference in the postseason. They were outplayed by the seventh-seed Green Bay Packers and fell 17 points behind the Detroit Lions, yet they found ways to beat both teams and buck coach Kyle Shanahan’s habit of failing to win after trailing late in games.

Here, we will break down everything there is to know about the 49ers vs. Chiefs Super Bowl, past matchups and betting trends, and give our favorite betting pick for the games.

NFL Super Bowl LVIII Odds

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook as of 1/31/24. Use our FanDuel promo code for $200 in bonuses.

TeamsSpreadMoneylineTotal
San Francisco 49ers
vs.
Kansas City Chiefs
-1.5 (-115)-132Over 47.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-105)+112Under 47.5 (-110)
NFL Weekly Picks Against the Spread

San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5)

The 49ers were one of the best on-paper teams in the regular season. They finished third in points scored and points allowed and went 5-2 against playoff teams (excluding a Week 18 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in which their starters didn’t play). 

The Niners also finished fifth in rushing yards and 13th in passing yards allowed despite often leading in games, forcing opponents to mostly air out the ball. 

Second-year QB Brock Purdy recorded the second-highest yards per attempt (9.6) in the modern era, led the league in QBR, was third in touchdowns, and fifth in passing yards. Meanwhile, Christian McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing yards and total touchdowns, rounding out arguably the most complete team in the league.

The Chiefs are known for a prolific offense led by a player in Patrick Mahomes who is on pace to be the greatest to ever grace an NFL field—but this year, the mold completely changed.

Kansas City is only 15th in average points per game (22.1) despite leading the league as recently as last year even though Tyreek Hill had already been traded to the Miami Dolphins. On the flip side, the KC defense gave up the second-fewest points and second-fewest yards and also ranked second in sacks, giving Mahomes a level of defensive support and reliability he hadn’t experienced in his six-year starting career.

Mahomes’ basic numbers are down compared to years past, but he produced the highest average QBR of his postseason career during the first three rounds of the ongoing playoffs and has not thrown an interception since the AFC Championship Game in 2021.

Looking at some basic trends, the Chiefs are 14-3 straight-up and 12-5 against the spread in Mahomes’ playoff career (truly remarkable numbers). They also won and covered in five straight playoff games and in two of three Super Bowls, including Super Bowl LIV against the Niners.

On the flip side, Brock Purdy is 22-5 straight-up and 17-10 against the spread (although he is 0-2 ATS in these playoffs). He was favored in every game except for one in his career and is 3-4 ATS against the AFC.

The Niners are 9-10 ATS, while the Chiefs are 12-7-1. Mahomes is 10-3 straight-up (11-1-1 ATS) as an underdog and 2-0 as a road underdog in the playoffs with both covers (and outright wins) coming in the recent Divisional Round and AFC Championship Game.

One of the most impressive aspects of the Chiefs’ 17-10 win over the Baltimore Ravens was their aggressiveness and superiority at the point of attack. They completely neutralized the Ravens’ pass-rush and found success running the ball even without All-Pro guard Joe Thuney.

That wasn’t the first time they dominated the trenches. They manhandled the Philadelphia Eagles earlier in the year and carved up the Buffalo Bills’ defense a couple of weeks ago.

San Francisco has found it hard to generate pressure on opposing QBs all of a sudden. They managed just five sacks in their last four games and also did a terrible job stopping the run last week, allowing the Lions to run 29 times for 182 yards and three touchdowns.

The Niners can’t afford to get off to a slow start the way they did during the NFC Championship Game. The Chiefs won’t make the same mistakes the Lions did and are also a much better and more experienced team that’s playing its best football of the season.

We like the Chiefs to cover and win Super Bowl LVIII. The Mahomes-Purdy head-to-head matchup isn’t even a contest, and the Chiefs’ defense is playing much better than the Niners’ is.

Teams that run for more yards than their opponent are 42-15 SU (40-14-3 ATS) in Super Bowls, which should give a theoretical advantage to McCaffrey and the run-heavy Niners. However, they outgained the Chiefs on the ground in Super Bowl LIV and still lost 31-20, and Isiah Pacheco scored a touchdown in seven straight games.

Underdogs are also 9-5 straight-up in the last 14 Super Bowls and covered in seven of the last 10. 13 of the last 14 Super Bowl winners also covered the spread, and with the 1.5-point line, it’s very likely that the Chiefs win if they cover. 

  • 49ers vs. Chiefs pick: Chiefs +1.5

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AUTHOR

Grant Mitchell

397 Articles

Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.

In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.

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