NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread: Predictions, Best Bets, and Early Odds

Months of offseason training, front office management, roster reconstruction, coaching carousels, and preseason preparations have finally led to Week 1 of the 2024 NFL Season.

The San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs enter the year as the Super Bowl favorites, while all six of the rookie quarterbacks taken in the first round of the NFL Draft will work feverishly to make a dent in those odds.

With the table set for a new campaign, here are our best bets and picks against the spread for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season.  

2024 NFL Season Week 1 Odds

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Weekly NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1 of the 2024 NFL Season

Baltimore Ravens (+3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

The Ravens were one of the four final teams remaining in the postseason and claimed the number-one seed in the AFC last year. They lost several key contributors such as defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald and linebacker Patrick Queen, but they also made one of the largest upgrades with the addition of Derrick Henry. They are going to have a near-unstoppable running game, plus the reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson.

The Chiefs won their second straight Super Bowl in a “rebuilding” year and with very little in the way of standout offensive talent. They loaded up during the summer with Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and rookie Adonai Mitchell, plus they re-signed Chris Jones to a lucrative deal.

The Chiefs easily handled the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game by stifling their offense the way nobody else did that year. However, they lost their Week 1 matchup against the Detroit Lions last year and are unlikely to be at their physical or mental peak early in the year given their sights are set purely on Super Bowl trophies.

• Ravens vs. Chiefs pick: Ravens -3

Bet on Ravens Spread -3 at FanDuel 

Green Bay Packers (+1.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)

Jordan Love was up, down, and way up in his first season as the Packers’ full-time starter, throwing 26 touchdowns and only five interceptions over the final 12 games of the season (including the playoffs). He also helped his team annihilate the Cowboys 48-32 on the road in the Wild Card and has a new standout running back in Josh Jacobs to work with.

Philly lost six of its final seven games after a 10-1 start in 2023, but its greatest loss came in the offseason with the retirement of Jason Kelce. New arrival Saquon Barkley will look to get Philly back to the top running offense in the league, while rookie corner Quinyon Mitchell and veteran safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson will be tasked with shoring up a secondary that allowed the third-most passing yards per game.

This is the first NFL game that will be played in Brazil (Sao Paulo), which adds a level of unfamiliarity to the matchup. Green Bay finished in better form but is likely still inferior to the Eagles’ level of talent, yet the loss of Kelce will loom large. Expect this to be a back-and-forth classic to start the year.

• Packers vs. Eagles pick: Eagles -1.5

Bet on Eagles Spread -1.5 at FanDuel 

Tennessee Titans (+4.5) vs. Chicago Bears (-4.5)

The Titans recognized the desperation of their situation as a rebuilding team in a division with the other rebuilding teams…yet one in which they were clearly the least ready for present or future success. They signed Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, and L’Jarius Sneed to bolster their bottom line but are still relying on progression from second-year QB Will Levis.

The Bears, on the other hand, gave first-overall pick and QB Caleb Williams arguably the best situation for any first-overall QB pick ever. Joining him on the offense are the likes of Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and D’Andre Swift, while the defense gave up fewer points per game after the arrival of Montez Sweat than all but two teams did for the entire year.

The Titans will be more competitive than they were last year in the AFC South, but the Bears are the better team. Williams will have his struggles but also won’t need to be the far-and-away best player on the field for every snap like he did in college. 

• Titans vs. Bears pick: Bears -4.5 

Bet on Bears Spread -4.5 at FanDuel 

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

Russell Wilson will likely get the starting job over Justin Fields as he looks to rewrite the story of his post-Seattle career. The Pittsburgh defense was solid last year, and the team is 27-14-1 over the last three years with T.J. Watt on the field, which means they just need league-average QB production to be a contender in the AFC North.

The Falcons spent a lot of money to acquire veteran QB Kirk Cousins despite him suffering a torn Achilles in the middle of last season. He could have the best spread of talent of his career on the offensive end, while the Atlanta defense had its moments and should get better, in theory, under Raheem Morris, a defensive-minded coach.

Mike Tomlin is one of the best coaches against the spread as an underdog in NFL history and will find his way to 10 wins seemingly regardless of how good his players are. Cousins could be a little rusty after his injury and with his new team, making the Steelers an attractive upset pick.

• Steelers vs. Falcons pick: Steelers +2.5

Bet on Steelers Spread +2.5 at FanDuel 

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

Forgotten amid the Houston Texans’ rise to notoriety was the Jaguars’ 8-3 start to their 2023 campaign before Trevor Lawrence suffered a debilitating ankle injury, though he chose to keep playing. The team’s offense sputtered as its pass defense remained very poor, causing them to completely capitulate down the stretch. They drafted Brian Thomas Jr. and signed Gabe Davis but mostly got worse on defense during the summer.

The Dolphins have proven themselves to be an excellent regular-season team but have serious questions in the postseason. They signed veterans such as Odell Beckham Jr. and Jordan Poyer, among others, but will not fool anyone until they consistently win cold-weather and high-pressure matchups in a tough AFC.

As much as Jacksonville’s fall-off has been over-exaggerated—or at least taken out of context—the Dolphins are the much better pick here. They had an offseason full of soundbites criticizing them for falling flat in the playoffs and games against playoff-caliber opponents and have an extremely talented team, along with a terrific offensive mind in Mike McDaniel. 

• Jaguars vs. Dolphins pick: Dolphins -3.5

Bet on Dolphins Spread -3.5 at FanDuel 

New England Patriots (+9) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-9)

The home of the NFL’s most devastating dynasty is now the residence of one of the worst teams in the league—at least, that’s the general sentiment heading into the 2024 NFL season. New England has a subpar offensive line with little-to-no weapons at skill positions, either a rookie or career backup at quarterback, and a 36-year-old first-time head coach. The defense has talent, but it remains to be seen how it will perform without Bill Belichick on the headset. 

Cincy is making another push at a Super Bowl run with Joe Burrow seemingly healthy (for the time being). They brought back Tee Higgins and even drafted a wideout in Jermaine Burton to give Burrow as many weapons as possible, while the defense was buoyed with the likes of Geno Stone and Sheldon Rankins.

The Bengals are only true contenders if Burrow is healthy, which is far from a guarantee at this point. However, his offensive line is better than in years past, and there will be an innate fire burning after their disappointing 2023 campaign. The Patriots will start the year with a new spirit but should quickly realize they aren’t ready to compete with the top-tier teams in the league.

• Patriots vs. Bengals pick: Bengals -9

Bet on Bengals Spread -9 at FanDuel 

Houston Texans (-1.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (+1.5)

A rematch of the Week 18 thriller that decided which team won the division and made the postseason a year ago, the public would say this line shows too much respect to the Colts. Houston won the AFC South with a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach despite suffering numerous injuries and having a worse roster than they currently do. Stefon Diggs, Danielle Hunter, and Joe Mixon will all be desperate to make an impact in their new home.

Anthony Richardson could not stay on the field for more than four games before he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in his rookie season, but he showed flashes of real potential. Indy quietly assembled an intimidating offense with elite playmakers and still has its strong offensive line. The biggest question with this team is its pass defense, especially with the lack of secondary depth. 

The oddsmakers made the objectively correct decision to respect the job the Colts did a year ago. Shane Steichen will have plenty of surprises in Week 1 given there is very little film on Anthony Richardson, while the Texans will be able to unleash their new weapons. This will be a test of maturity of Houston more than anything, but C.J. Stroud proved last year he’s more than capable of handling pressure.   

• Texans vs. Colts pick: Texans -1.5

Bet on Texans Spread -1.5 at FanDuel 

Minnesota Vikings (-1) vs. New York Giants (+1)

An elite quarterback would make the Vikings legit challengers in the NFC. Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson are all components of a championship offense, which means that either Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy will be in the spotlight trying to hold up their end of the bargain. Brian Flores improved the defense with every passing week in 2023 and will bring his trademark aggression into the Week 1 road matchup.

The Giants are in contention with the Patriots (and some others) for the worst roster in the NFL. A severe case of buyer’s remorse with Daniel Jones, the loss of Saquon Barkley, and general ineptitude leave them with a bottom-tier offense. On a more positive note, their defensive front seven is actually one of the 10 best in the league and will make an impact in the running and passing game.

New York quickly went from a surprising overachiever two years ago to dreadful last year. Malik Nabers and Brian Burns are fun new additions to the team, but the Vikings simply have far more talent. If Darnold or McCarthy can avoid a multi-turnover game, this one should swing toward the Purple People Eaters.

• Vikings vs. Giants pick: Vikings -1

Bet on Vikings Spread -1 at FanDuel 

Carolina Panthers (+4.5) vs. New Orleans Saints (-4.5)

Okay, let’s call last year a write-off—Bryce Young now needs to prove that he was the rightful top pick in the draft a year ago, especially seeing the success Stroud and the Texans achieved. It won’t be easy with bottom-five weapons and an uninspiring offensive line, not to mention the losses of Brian Burns and Frankie Luvu on defense…we’d mention the positives here, but there aren’t many.

Nobody seems to know what the Saints are doing, and that includes the Saints. Derek Carr did not have a great first year, Alvin Kamara is a year older, there are holes on the offensive line, and the defense, while solid, is aging quickly. There hasn’t been much development for the future, and the team’s ceiling is a first-round playoff exit at best.

We don’t see a world in which the Panthers take a leap, but the Saints are also strikingly average. Betting against Carolina is like taking the low-hanging fruit, and maybe, just maybe, they find a way to lose by four points.

• Panthers vs. Saints pick: Panthers +4.5

Bet on Panthers Spread +4.5 at FanDuel 

Arizona Cardinals (+7) vs. Buffalo Bills (-7)

The Cardinals may have had the worst offensive line in the league a year ago, but who needs a line when you have First-Team All-Pro in the making Marvin Harrison Jr.? The Card finished a surprising third in rushing yards per game (139.1) a year ago and have a solid foundation to build on in that regard with a healthy Kyler Murray and MHJ’s impending arrival. Just don’t ask them to consistently hold teams under 20 points… or 25… or…

Enter: Josh Allen. The football world mostly recognizes the Bills’ gunslinger as the second-best QB in the league, but he’ll be put to the test with a cast of young players both on his line and at skill positions. The defense still has pieces and will welcome back a healthy Matt Milano but is still undergoing a salary cap-induced transformation, one that may not be complete for a few years.

Allen is going to need to put on his Superman cape more times than not this year. He’s more than capable of scoring four total touchdowns, but he also led the league in turnovers last year and will have as green of a light as ever. This one could swing either way depending on which version of the star QB shows up, but we’ll take the Cardinals to cover (probably in a loss).

• Cardinals vs. Bills pick: Cardinals +7 

Bet on Cardinals Spread +7 at FanDuel 

Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)

Move over, AFC West, there’s a new sheriff in town! Reigning NCAA national champion Jim Harbaugh will lead a new-look Chargers team into battle against a divisional foe in a nice litmus test for his team. Expect LA to prioritize running the ball and dominating the trenches more than in years past despite their second-round investment on Georgia wideout Ladd McConkey.

Nobody quite knows how, but the Raiders won eight games last year despite a terrible start, awful quarterback play, and a very poor secondary. Antonio Pierce worked his magic and catalyzed a team that will now start a backfield featuring either Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew and Zamir White, putting them at an immediate disadvantage. Don’t sleep on the Raiders’ pass rush, though, or your quarterback might be seated on his behind.

Vegas will play teams tough and could be a Wild Card contender with a league-average quarterback. That said, the Chargers’ overhaul should work well for them as they clear out dead weight and Harbaugh brings the best out of a talented defense. The Bolts’ new coach has the best winning percentage of any coach in the NFL, and we like him to start the new chapter of his NFL career with a win and a cover.

• Raiders vs. Chargers  pick: Chargers -3.5

Bet on Chargers Spread -3.5 at FanDuel 

Denver Broncos (+4.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)

It’s not quite time to start questioning Sean Payton, but it is time to jot those questions down for further use. The Super Bowl champion appears ready to start one of Jarrett Stidham, Zach Wilson, or Bo Nix with an offense that ranked 20th in points per game last year. Even worse, the defense was 27th in scoring and did not make any noticeable upgrades.

The Seahawks are pigeonholed into being a Wild Card contender because of the San Francisco 49ers’ dominance, but they should still be above average. The offense isn’t elite but is explosive, and the defense is due for improvement under new coach Mike MacDonald, the Ravens’ defensive coordinator a year ago. 

The Bobby Wagner loss is a big deal for Seattle, but they’re set at corner and were top 10 in sacks per game. Denver doesn’t have the horses (pun intended) to compete with teams with even decent offenses and is in for a long year.

• Broncos vs. Seahawks pick: Seahawks -4.5 

Bet on Seahawks Spread -4.5 at FanDuel 

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (+1.5)

What a Week 1 matchup this is! The Cowboys have seemingly been right on the cusp of a Super Bowl run for close to a decade now, yet they’re only 2-5 in the playoffs with Dak Prescott under center. They also bid goodbye to Tony Pollard, Dorance Armstrong, Tyler Biadsz, defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, and several others, without making major upgrades anywhere on the roster.

The Browns had a Super Bowl roster last year but were stymied by inadequate quarterback play. Deshaun Watson was once a top-five quarterback in the league and just needs to be in the top 20 or top 15 for this team, back with a healthy line and a healthy Nick Chubb, to be a legitimate threat for the one seed in the AFC.

These teams had two of the best defenses in the NFL a year ago but were/are very different on offense. Whichever style wins out—for Dallas, airing the ball out, and for Cleveland, controlling the clock with the run—will be the likely winner.

• Cowboys vs. Browns pick: Browns +1.5

Bet on Browns Spread +1.5 at FanDuel 

Washington Commanders (+4) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)

No player in college football had a better 2023 than second-overall pick Jayden Daniels, who enters year one of the Commanders’ official rebuild as their starting QB. No team made more changes through trades and free agency than the Commanders, which makes them a bit of an unknown, especially with a rookie QB. The defense will get after the ball with a great linebacking corps and defensive line, while the offense could be explosive in spurts.

Baker Mayfield revitalized his career and led the Buccaneers to an NFC South title last year, which makes the expectations for this year another division title. They ranked fifth in points allowed per game but need to find a greater balance running the ball to have the offense to match their defense, even despite Mayfield’s resurgence. 

The Commanders are going to be an interesting team. Daniels’ abilities as a runner are an obvious wrinkle in the game plan, while the sheer amount of changes could lead to them booming or busting early in the year. Tampa’s defense will be tough to break down on the road, but we still expect this to be a nip-and-tuck matchup.

• Commanders vs. Buccaneers pick: Commanders +4

Bet on Commanders Spread +4 at FanDuel 

Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) vs. Detroit Lions (-3.5)

Aaron Donald’s retirement stole the headlines from the Rams, but we haven’t forgotten how they finished their regular season with wins in seven of their final eight games. Matthew Stafford still looks like a top-10 quarterback, the receiver pairing of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua is obviously elite, and the team spent an early draft pick on running back Blake Corum of Michigan. 

The Lions knocked the Rams out of the playoffs with a 24-23 win in the Wild Card. They’re very much the “in” team and bolstered their pass defense with Terrion Arnold and Carlton Davis III, though they’re still young in that department. The offensive line might be the best in the league, the skill position guys make plays, and the team is rightfully second in odds to win the NFC.

The Rams took a while to get going last year but were great when it counted, playing the Lions to a one-point loss. Detroit is going to have its highest expectations in decades but handled pressure well throughout most of last year, which gives us reason to believe in them in Week 1.

• Rams vs. Lions pick: Lions -3.5

Bet on Lions Spread -3.5 at FanDuel 

New York Jets (+5.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)

This author is curious as to why the Jets are perceived as a potentially-elite team in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers is 40 years old, coming off a torn Achilles, and three years removed from excellent football play, and he has a poor offensive line and average receivers. The defense has outstanding personnel but was 10th in points allowed per game, which will likely prove to be too low for them to win the division.

The Niners are the Super Bowl favorites and were an overtime away from taking down the dynastic Chiefs in the biggest game of the year. Brock Purdy is still only 24 and has less than two years of starting experience, which means he should be even better this year. The team is stacked at every position and will be favored nearly every week.

The Jets don’t have an advantage in a single area of the field. San Fran also has the much better head coach and a real proof of concept, while the only proof the Jets and Rodgers are concerned with are conspiracy-laced historical concepts, medical practices, or political stances. Take the Niners in a blowout.

• Jets vs. 49ers pick: 49ers -5.5

Bet on 49ers Spread -5.5 at FanDuel