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Monday Night Football Prop Bets Week 3: Joe Burrow to Torch the Commanders Secondary

Written by: Kody Malstrom
Published September 22, 2024
5 min read
  • Ja’Marr Chase is averaging a pedestrian 48.5 receiving yards per game this season

  • Joe Burrow finished last week with a QBR of 110.65 against the Kansas City Chiefs

  • The Washington Commanders secondary ranks 32nd in Def Pass Success Rate and DVOA

While Comeback Player of the Year contender Joe Burrow seemingly bounced back with a respectable performance against the Kansas City Chiefs, his star wide receiver has still yet to get it going this season as he is averaging just 48.5 receiving yards per game. Fortunately for Chase and the rest of the Bengals' pass catchers, they draw a favorable matchup against the Washington Commanders as their secondary ranks dead last across the board in Def Pass Success Rate and DVOA.

On the other side of the field, it will be on Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense to stay within the Bengals scoring pace as sizable underdogs in Monday’s primetime contest. Daniels has not hesitated to flash his elite dual-threat ability in his rookie campaign, averaging 205 passing yards and 66 rushing yards per game in his first two contests. With an underwhelming group of pass catchers drawing a tough assignment against a stout Bengals secondary, expect Daniels to utilize his legs at a heavier rate.

As for where to wager on Monday Night Football’s matchup between the Washington Commanders and Cincinnati Bengals, FanDuel Sportsbook has been the top choice for the market as they offer an abundance of props for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds. If you have not signed up yet with FanDuel, you can claim $200 in bonus bets after creating an account and making an initial wager of at least $5.

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Best MNF Prop Bets Week 3

Joe Burrow Over 261.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

After a shockingly bad performance against the lowly New England Patriots in their season opener, Joe Burrow managed to round back into form against the reigning Super Bowl champions the following week after finishing the contest against the Chiefs with 258 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. Burrow will now find himself in a position to continue to build momentum as he faces off against a Commanders secondary that ranks last in the league in Def Pass Success Rate and Success Rate.

Better yet, the Bengals may have to rely on a heavier dose of the pass as the Commanders' front seven ranks above league average in Run Defense Win Rate and PFF Grade. That indicates a potential uptick in pass attempts to help sustain drives down the field, giving Burrow a heavier volume to help clear the over on this prop. Even if they build up a sizable lead, we may see the Bengals keep their foot on the pedal as they are in desperate need of a win after starting out 0-2 this season.

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Ja’Marr Chase Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at BetMGM

Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, Burrow’s go-to target on the outside is in desperate need of a breakout performance as Ja’Marr Chase is averaging just a pedestrian 48.5 receiving yards per game this season. Granted he has had to combat against extra coverage this year as his teammate Tee Higgins has been out with an injury, yet he will now get the benefit of more single coverage with Higgins expected to make his return. Even if Higgins remains out, Chase should still be able to produce against the worst secondary in the league.

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Mike Gesicki Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+320) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Keeping the theme of an uptick in production for the Bengals pass catchers, we also turn our attention towards the anytime touchdown scorer market as Mike Gesicki will continue to be a reliable target for Burrow to throw to. While he has yet to haul one in for a score, Gesicki does lead the team in targets so far this season. With the Commanders' secondary stretched thin against the Bengals' star receivers, expect Gesicki to continue to create high-quality throwing opportunities against singular coverage across the middle.

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Jayden Daniels Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

While Cincinnati gets the benefit of running wild against a horrendous Commanders secondary, Washington’s lackluster group of pass catchers draw a much tougher assignment against a stout Bengals secondary. Outside of Terry McLaurin, the Commanders fail to field another reliable go-to target for Daniels to throw to. The Commanders' inability to create separation away from coverage will force Daniels to tuck it and run as he will desperately need to extend plays to help sustain drives down the field.

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Kody Malstrom WSN Contributor

Kody Malstrom

Sports Betting Analyst

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Kody Malstrom is a sports betting journalist with six years of writing experience in the industry. He covers an abundance of sports, including College Football, NFL, College Basketball, NBA, and more. Born and raised in Michigan, Kody is a devoted Detroit Sports fan and spends his Sundays rooting for the Detroit Lions while telling himself this year is the year they win it all. When not staring at betting markets, Kody spends his free time at the beach in the summer or snowboarding in the winter.
Email: [email protected]
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of Finance
Favourite Sportsbook: Caesars Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: BetMGM Casino
Experience: 6 years
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