Monday Night Football Week 9 Prop Bets: Expect a Vintage Performance From Patrick Mahomes

• Patrick Mahomes has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season

• Tampa Bay’s secondary ranks near dead last in Def Pass Success Rate and EPA

• Baker Mayfield will be without his star wide receiver duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin

While Patrick Mahomes is listed as one of the betting favorites for the MVP award, he has yet to look the part as he has thrown more interceptions than passing touchdowns this season. Granted the reigning Super Bowl champions are still undefeated, yet Kansas City is treading on thin ice should Mahomes continue to underwhelm. Fortunately for Mahomes, he has the opportunity to round back into form as Tampa Bay’s secondary enters the contest ranked near dead last in Def Pass Success Rate and EPA.

As for the Bucs, Baker Mayfield is tasked with having to match the Chiefs offensive production while without his star wide receiver duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Even without them against Atlanta, that did not stop Mayfield from being aggressive last weekend as he finished the contest throwing the ball 50 times for 330 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. With the Chiefs listed at -7.5, expect another high volume of pass attempts from Mayfield as they are projected to play from behind.

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Patrick Mahomes Over 242.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

After years of terrorizing secondaries on a weekly basis, it almost seems unfathomable how poor Patrick Mahomes has looked this season. As of writing, Mahomes has thrown only eight passing touchdowns while also throwing nine interceptions. A stunningly bad level of play for someone regarded as one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the NFL. Granted some of the blame can be pointed towards his underwhelming group of pass catchers, yet Mahomes decision making has been awful as well.

Heading into Monday, Mahomes will have the opportunity to round back into form as the Buccaneers secondary enters the contest ranked near dead last in Def Pass Success Rate. Their low mark in Def Pass Success Rate indicates the Bucs struggle to stop opposing offenses from cutting the distance to gain in half on first down, as well as converting on later downs. That spells potential disaster with Travis Kelce excelling at exploiting gaps in coverage, giving Mahomes high quality passing lanes for him to throw to.

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Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

Not only do the Bucs secondary struggle to defend at a competitive level when in the middle of the field, but they also underwhelm in the red zone as they rank 26th overall in Def Pass EPA. Their scheme puts their cornerbacks on islands as the Bucs blitz their linebackers at one of the heaviest rates in the league. With Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins able to routinely beat any single coverage they may receive, Mahomes should have no issue with connecting with his star pass catchers when in scoring territory.

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Baker Mayfield Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

With Mahomes in a position to routinely get the Chiefs into scoring territory, it will be up to Baker Mayfield to match their level of production in order to stay within their scoring pace. Easier said than done while without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, yet their absence did not stop him last week from stringing together a high volume pass attack. With the Chiefs front seven ranking top-10 in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Adjusted Line Yards, calling a heavy dose of the pass may be the best path of success for the Bucs.

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Bucky Irving Under 32.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

With the Chiefs front seven excelling at stopping the run, the surging Bucky Irving may find it tough to generate consistent rush production. Even as the more efficient running back, Irving still splits carries with Rachaad White which shades value towards the under on his rushing yards prop. The Bucs may also be better off calling a heavy rate of the pass, limiting the number of carries for Irving as well.

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