The Los Angeles Chargers host the Miami Dolphins to close out the Sunday slate of the NFL season. These are important games for both teams as they hope for a Wild Card spot in the postseason.
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One of the higher totals this week, the Dolphins and Chargers are teams that, on paper, have great offenses and bad defenses.
Where this is magnified, specifically, is in coverage. Both teams have cornerbacks that are not playing well across the board.
For the Chargers, though, the passing yard statistics for opposing teams are decent at around 220 passing yards surrendered per game because they allow over 150 rushing yards per game.
Both teams have a cast of weapons that should see little resistance against each other’s defenses.
Also, this could be the first complete game in some time where Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert will have wide receivers Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, and running back Austin Ekeler on the field.
For the Dolphins, quarterback Tua Tagovailao is coming off of a bad game, but he hasn’t thrown for less than 285 yards since Week 7 and had three straight games with three touchdown passes from Weeks 7 to 9.
Both offenses should be on top of their game in this one against easy defenses.
There’s no denying that Hill is one of the best receivers in the NFL, and he’s proven that again this year with the Dolphins. Entering Week 14, he should cross 100 receptions, has just under 1,400 receiving yards, and averages over 14 yards per catch.
Playing both out wide and out the slot, Hill will face a Chargers secondary that has struggled this season. Still, as mentioned, the stats aren’t all that egregious due to how poor their run defense is.
Asante Samuel Jr. has allowed six touchdowns on his own this season.
As for Hill, he’s scored three times in his last four games and has just as many 100+ yard games (six) as games with less than 100 receiving yards (six).
Hill has a great matchup here in a game with a high total. He’ll find the end zone.
Coming back in Week 11, Allen immediately made an impact out of the slot.
Here are his stat lines since then:
Week 11: 8 targets, 5 receptions, 94 yards, 0 TDs
Week 12: 7 targets, 5 receptions, 49 yards, 1 TD
Week 13: 12 targets, 6 receptions, 98 yards, 1 TD
This week, Mike Williams will be back in the lineup for what is hopefully a larger-ish snap count.
This will help Allen with better matchups, and against the Dolphins that have beatable corners in Keion Crossen and Xavier Howard, Allen should see the benefits.
The only potential tougher competition he’ll have is against Kader Kohou, who hasn’t allowed a touchdown this season but does allow 66.1% of targets thrown toward him to get caught.
Allen is Herbert’s No.1 option in the passing game, and in a game with a total north of 50 points, he should be in line for double-digit targets once again.
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After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.More info on Richard Janvrin
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