Image for Richard Janvrin Richard Janvrin - November 17, 2022

Thursday Night Football Predictions & Best Bets Week 11

TNF Best Bets Week 11

Week 11 of the NFL season kicks off with the Tennessee Titans traveling to take on the Green Bay Packers.

Both teams are coming off Week 10 wins, so who takes it here? Can the Titans beat the Packers in Lambeau? Are the Packers off to a second-half surge?

Let’s explore. 

Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans Best Bets

Titans +3 (-108) at FanDuel

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The Packers are coming off a comeback victory that included overtime. This week, they host the Titans, who squeaked out a win against the formidable Denver Broncos defense.

On a short week here, you have to imagine both teams’ game plans will be a bit more simplistic as both want to run the ball successfully.

The Titans face a Green Bay defense that has gotten gashed on the ground this year, giving up over 140 yards rushing per game. In contrast, the Titans give up the second-fewest rushing yards per game at 85.1. 

We did see the Packers get wide receiver Christian Watson involved in a big way, scoring three touchdowns. The Titans secondary can be passed on—they give up nearly 273 passing yards per game. 

The Packers may be able to win this one narrowly, but the Titans, with Derrick Henry running the ball, have a great chance to control the clock and the time of possession. 

Titans should cover, and you should be on the lookout for this line to perhaps go to 3.5. 

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Over 42 (-110) at Caesars

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With both teams wanting to run the ball successfully, taking the under is tempting, but 42 isn’t a lot of points.

The Titans have limited weapons in the passing game despite the breakout from wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in Week 10. Henry could post three touchdowns on his own if the Titans wanted him to.

Their passing offense is starting to wake up a bit for the Packers, as seen with Watson’s production. He’s an excellent downfield threat against a Titans secondary with cornerbacks Roger McCreary and Terrance Mitchell, who are middle-of-the-pack in terms of coverage players. 

The Packers should establish the pass early in this one to open up more play-action and RPOs for Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. This Titans defensive front is good at snuffing out the run, so Rodgers will need to sling it.

Again, two run-heavy teams on a short week make taking the under tempting, but at 42, we’ll take our chances with this going over. 

Both teams have receiving options, but at the core of it, these are two offenses that want to run the ball.

As mentioned, the Falcons run the ball on 53.2% of their plays, and while the Panthers are just under 40%, they’ve wanted to run more since the Christian McCaffrey trade. 

Short weeks usually mean simpler game plans, and this game will be won in the trenches running the ball. 

It doesn’t seem likely that this game will be a repeat of 70+ total points here. Running the ball will be the focus. 

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AUTHOR

Richard Janvrin

278 Articles

After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.

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