Thursday Night Football Picks Week 15: 49ers Still in Contention for the NFC West Division Title

• The San Francisco 49ers are two games back from first in the NFC West division standings

• 49ers secondary ranks above league average in Def Pass DVOA and Success Rate

• The Los Angeles Rams defense conceded over 400 yards of total offense to the Buffalo Bills last weekend

Even after a rough start to the season, the San Francisco 49ers are still in contention for the NFC West division title as they are only two games back from the Seattle Seahawks for first place in the division standings. With the Seahawks having to go through a rough stretch of games to end their year, this opens the door for San Francisco to leap over them should they win out. That starts with a rematch against the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night after losing to them 27-24 earlier in the year.

Should the 49ers want to salvage their hopes of making the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl, then securing the win against their divisional foe is crucial. Fortunately for the 49ers, their offense is in a position to thrive as they get the benefit of facing off against a Rams defense who ranks below league average in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Factor in the 49ers secondary capable of smothering the star duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua and San Francisco is in a great position to cover the spread.

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San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

After losing to the Rams earlier in the year while battling through injuries, the San Francisco 49ers look to exact their revenge on Thursday night and keep their division title hopes alive. Especially with the Rams' defense continuing to regress as they enter the contest ranked in the bottom half of the board in Def DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, Adjusted Line Yards, and Adjusted Sack Rate. Their lack of defensive production was on full display last Sunday as they conceded over 400 yards of offense to the Buffalo Bills.

With the 49ers offense in a position to thrive, it will be up to their defense to help secure the cover. While that normally spells disaster against an offense who fields the star duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, the 49ers' secondary has been a strength for their defense as they currently rank above league average in Def Pass DVOA and Success Rate. San Francisco also anchors their linebackers in coverage at one of the heavier rates in the league, giving them extra bodies to help lessen the quality of passing lanes.

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San Francisco 49ers Team Total Over 25.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

As previously mentioned, the Rams' defense grades out poorly across the board at every level of the field. That bodes well for the 49ers offense who has steadily improved throughout the year as they head into Thursday ranked top-10 in both Pass and Rush DVOA. With the 49ers' defense capable of halting the Rams' pass attack and forcing them into early outs, San Francisco’s offense may receive an uptick in their number of possessions to help increase their chances of clearing the over on their team total.

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49ers/Ravens Moneyline Parlay (-114) at Caesars Sportsbook 

If you want to bypass the 49ers spread and bet on them to win outright instead for some added security, then they make for a great team to target for a two team moneyline parlay. Especially with Thursday night football bringing in a high amount of variance into their contest as both teams revert to a more simplistic game plan while on less preparation due to the shortened week.

As for who to pair with them, the Baltimore Ravens are fresh off of their bye week and get the benefit of facing off against the lowly New York Giants. With the Giants offense struggling to generate pass production at a competitive level, that helps the Ravens defense mask their low marks in Def Pass Success Rate. That will lead to early outs and stalled out drives, leaving the Giants prone to falling quickly behind on the scoreboard while their own defense gets rolled over by the high powered Ravens offense.

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