Thursday Night Football Prop Bets Week 15: San Francisco’s Pass Attack to Thrive on Primetime

• The San Francisco 49ers odds to win the Super Bowl have drastically declined

• Kyren Williams is averaging 77.9 rushing yards per game this season

• The Los Angeles Rams secondary ranks below league average in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

After entering the year listed as one of the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl LIX, the San Francisco 49ers are on the brink of missing out on the playoffs entirely. Fortunately for San Francisco, they are still in contention for the NFC West division title which would give them an automatic berth into the playoffs should they win the division. In order to keep their division title hopes alive, they must secure the win over the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night.

In their rematch, Brock Purdy and the 49ers' pass attack will have the opportunity to consistently move the ball down the field through the air as the Rams defense ranks below league average in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Especially when Purdy is expected to play in a clean pocket as the Rams also rank in the bottom half of the board in Def Adjusted Sack Rate and Adjusted Line Yards. On the other side of the field, expect Kyren Williams to run wild as he faces off against a weak 49ers front seven.

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Brock Purdy Over 237.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

While the Rams offense have gone through a resurgence after getting their star receivers back from injury, their defense has struggled to match their level of production and have severely underwhelmed at every level of the field. Especially on the back end as the Rams' secondary ranks below league average in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Against the 49ers' deep group of pass catchers, the Rams' defense will be spread out thin which creates wider gaps in coverage and higher-quality passing lanes.

Better yet for Brock Purdy, he is expected to operate in a clean pocket for a majority of the contest as the Rams also grade out poorly in Def Adjusted Sack Rate and Adjusted Line Yards. His starting left guard Aaron Banks is also expected to make his return from injury, giving his offensive line a boost in production while protecting his blind side. With minimal pressure and sizable gaps in coverage, expect Purdy to face minimal resistance in his efforts of generating pass production. 

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Deebo Samuel Anytime Touchdown (+145) at Caesars Sportsbook 

With the 49ers offense in a position to routinely move the ball down the field and into the red zone, their skill players will receive an uptick in scoring opportunities. That shades value towards their pass catchers as they have the opportunity to shred the Rams' weak coverage and give Purdy high-quality passing lanes for him to throw to. Not only should you bet on Deebo Samuel to score a touchdown, but shop around and sprinkle wagers on George Kittle and Jauan Jennings as well.

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Kyren Williams Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After neglecting their front seven throughout the offseason, the San Francisco 49ers have once again struggled to stop the run as their defense currently ranks well below league average in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. With the Rams offensive line grading out very well in Run Block, Kyren Williams will find himself with plenty of high-quality rushing lanes in the trenches and extra room to work with when he gets to the second level of the 49ers' defense.

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Puka Nacua Under 82.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

While the 49ers' defensive scheme hurts them in their efforts of stopping the run, it does help their secondary as the extra bodies anchored across the middle in coverage lessens the quality of opposing passing lanes. This allows the 49ers to bracket Puka Nacua off the line, as well as give them the opportunity to throw help side coverage. Factor in Kyren Williams potentially receiving an uptick in rush attempts against a weak front seven and Nacua may see a decrease in targets as well.

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