Image for Richard Janvrin Richard Janvrin - November 17, 2022

Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay Week 11

TNF SGP Week 11

Starting Week 11 of the NFL season is the Green Bay Packers at home as they host the Tennessee Titans. Both teams are coming off a win in Week 10, so how will they do against one another?

Here, we’ve constructed a three-leg Same Game Parlay with odds of +700. You can bet this over at DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get a $1,000 deposit bonus if you sign up today using our exclusive link. 

Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans: +700

Over 42.5 Points (-115)

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Taking the Titans +3.5 in the SGP is tempting, but we’ll opt for the points here instead.

Both teams have defenses that struggle mightily against one facet of offense. 

The Titans give up the second-most passing yards per game at over 270, while the Packers surrender over 140 rushing yards per game.

The Packers are coming off a game where they finally got their rookie deep threat Christian Watson going after he’s dealt with numerous injuries this year. The Titans, as we all know, have running back Derrick Henry.

On a short week, team game plans are always a bit more simplistic. While both would prefer to run the ball, the Packers will need to get their passing game going again, as the Titans allow the second-fewest rushing yards per game to opponents.

When you think of the Titans and Packers as independent entities, yes, the under sounds appealing, but the line here is just 42.5. 

Look for Rodgers to get the passing game going by leveraging Watson downfield and opening up more opportunities underneath. At the same time, the Titans use Henry to dominate the Packers upfront in this cold-weather matchup.

The forecast predicts a 20% chance of precipitation and temperatures to get down to around 20 degrees with 10-15 MPH winds. 

Allen Lazard Any Time TD (+195)

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As mentioned, the Packers will need to pass successfully in this game. With Watson on the outside, that should assist other receivers on this team, including Lazard. 

Lazard runs both outside and out of the slot. The split is roughly 58/39 in favor of out wide. 

His average target depth is 12.6 on the season, but he’s had games where it’s reached 17.8. Last week against the Dallas Cowboys, he was used much more underneath, as evident by his average target depth of just two yards. 

Lazard also ranks 26th in the league in yards per route run at 1.76 among receivers with at least 40 targets, so he’s also being used down the field.

Before Week 10, Lazard hadn’t seen less than seven targets in a game since Week 3. With that kind of volume against a squishy Titans secondary, we’ll take our chances at +195 odds and add it to this SGP. 

Derrick Henry Over 104.5 Rushing Yards (+110)

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Henry is coming off back-to-back weeks with less than 20 carries, which hasn’t happened all season. The last time he went under 20 carries was Week 2, but he’s never had less than 20 carries in two straight games. 

Before Week 10 against a tough Broncos defense, Henry had gone over 100 yards in five straight games.

As mentioned, the Packers give up over 140 per game. The key to victory for the Titans will be using Henry in this Lambeau tundra to manhandle players upfront and run with success. Henry is averaging 4.6 yards per carry. 

If he reaches 20 carries in this game, he’ll already be at 92, but with this matchup, expect his yards per carry to be up even more. 

In their front seven, the Packers also have injuries to Rashan Gary and De’Vondre Campbell. 

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AUTHOR

Richard Janvrin

278 Articles

After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.

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