Thursday Night Football Week 1 Picks: An AFC Conference Championship Rematch

• The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Baltimore Ravens in the 2023 AFC Conference Championship

• Chiefs enter the season as the betting favorites to win their third straight Super Bowl

• The Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is the reigning NFL MVP

After beating the Baltimore Ravens in last year’s AFC Conference Championship en route to a second straight Super Bowl victory, the Kansas City Chiefs look to pick up right where they left off as a three-point favorite entering the season opener. It was a slugfest in their previous matchup as the Chiefs squeaked out the Ravens to the tune of 17-10.

With an offseason geared towards beefing up their already explosive offense, the Chiefs look as dangerous as ever as Patrick Mahomes has more weapons at his disposal. Rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy joins an already stacked room of pass catchers, giving Mahomes a field-stretching speedster who can flip the field position at the blink of an eye. Factor in a Ravens defense that is projected to regress after a lackluster offseason, and the Chiefs may set a scoring pace too fast for Baltimore to keep up with.

As for where to wager on the season opener between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens, FanDuel Sportsbook has been the go-to app for betting on the NFL as they consistently put out lines before the rest of the market and at very favorable odds. If you have not signed up yet with FanDuel Sportsbook, you can claim $200 in bonus bets as well as three weeks of NFL Sunday Ticket for simply creating an account and making an initial wager of at least $5.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-104) at FanDuel

With both teams trending in different directions, the Chiefs make for an intriguing wager at the key number of -3. Even while potentially without newly acquired Hollywood Brown at receiver due to injury, the Chiefs boast more than enough explosiveness to create serious stress towards the Ravens secondary with the addition of Xavier Worthy. Every bit of his production will be needed to create holes in the Ravens' coverage as they excelled at smothering the pass, finishing last year ranked top-3 in Def Pass DVOA and Success Rate.

With the Chiefs wideouts stretching the field, star tight end Travis Kelce will find himself with wider gaps in coverage to help create havoc across the middle. That puts the Chiefs offense in a great position to continue to move the ball down the field and into scoring territory, potentially setting a scoring pace too fast for the Ravens offense to keep up with. Especially if their own defense continues to excel in coverage, forcing the Ravens to revert to a heavier dose of the run and limiting the number of possessions in the process.

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Kansas City Chiefs ML (-150) at BetMGM

Should you want to bypass the spread and take the Chiefs on the moneyline instead for some extra security, the Chiefs still show value at their current odds. Especially if they take on heavy money as a public darling as we near kickoff, making them a pass at -3.5 or higher. The Chiefs' offense boasts more than enough production to break the Ravens' stout coverage, forcing Baltimore’s offense to play at a faster pace than they would like as a run-heavy unit.

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Baltimore Ravens Team Total Under 21.5 (-106) at FanDuel

Not only can the Chiefs burn the Ravens through the air, but they can also turn the contest into a snail’s pace by attacking their weakness in stopping the run. Stopping opposing running backs in the trenches was an issue for the Ravens last season, finishing the year ranked 16th in Def Adjusted Line Yards, 14th in Def Rush EPA, and 16th in Def Rush Success Rate. With their front seven projected to regress, expect the Chiefs to churn out sizable gains while dominating time of possession as well.

With less time on their side comes less offensive possessions for the Ravens to burn their team total under. Their offense may also find themselves in an unfavorable position as they are not built to play in a track meet. That was apparent after the addition of running back Derrick Henry, indicating the Ravens will want to go back to their roots of dominating on the ground. With the Chiefs also projected to struggle with stopping the run, expect Baltimore to try to chew the clock with a heavy rush play rate while minimizing the number of scoring opportunities.

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