The Buffalo Bills survived a thriller against the lowly Arizona Cardinals in their season opener
Miami struggled to generate any sort of rush production with their stable of running backs
Weather is projected to be a major factor with heavy winds and rain in the forecast
It was arguably the most thrilling game of the weekend as the Buffalo Bills and Arizona Cardinals traded scores for the majority of their contest until the Bills squeaked out the win to the tune of 34-28. As for the Miami Dolphins, they found themselves in a slugfest against the Jacksonville Jaguars as their offense uncharacteristically struggled to get their pass attack going due to their ground game failing to command defensive attention from the Jags' second level of their defense.
With poor weather conditions in the forecast while on short rest, the Dolphins pass attack may struggle again with generating consistent pass production. Especially with question marks lingering over their offensive line, now having to go against a Bills defense that is capable of generating pressure with just four pass-rushers while dropping the rest back in coverage. Factor in a Bills offense that seems to want to run at a heavier rate, and this contest may feature a minimal amount of scoring opportunities.
As for where to wager on Thursday night’s matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills, FanDuel Sportsbook has been the top choice for the NFL as they routinely put out lines before everyone else and at very favorable odds when compared to the rest of the market. If you have not signed up yet with FanDuel Sportsbook, you can claim $200 in bonus bets as well as three weeks of NFL Sunday Ticket by simply creating an account and making an initial wager of at least $5.
Since opening at 51, the under has continued to take on money as the total is now listed as low as 49.5 for the highly anticipated AFC East matchup. Even after the line movement, the under is still worth a wager as scoring opportunities should be generated at a low rate between both offenses as they are in a position to struggle with moving the ball down the field at a consistent rate. Especially with poor weather conditions in the forecast as Thursday night’s matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins may feature heavy winds and a strong chance of rain.
With the weather potentially hampering the Dolphins' pass attack, as well as having to go against a Bills defense that can generate a pass rush with just their front four, their offense may struggle for a second week in a row. That was apparent when their ground game could not command defensive attention from the Jags' back end, forcing Tua to throw into tight windows for minimal success. Any limitations on the Dolphins' offense bodes well for the under as their pass attack can put up points in a flash. Take the under at now lower than the key number of 49.
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If you want to get a little crazy, taking an alternate under at the key number of 42.5 is also worth a stab. Especially if the Bills offense wants to continue to call the run at a heavy rate, dominating time of possession for small chunks of a time while keeping the ball out of Tua’s hands in the process. This also limits the variance that comes with Josh Allen’s arm as he continues to generate turnover-worthy plays at a high rate in his career. With less offensive possessions comes less scoring opportunities, playing towards a low-scoring affair.
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While a low-scoring affair does shade value towards the underdog, it’s worth using the Bills as a Wong teaser piece as it will move their spread through the key numbers of +3 and +7 while tying in another wager I like on Sunday’s slate. At +7.5, you get to avoid the potential opportunity of a game-winning field goal burning a less-than-ideal +1.5 straight ticket.
Don’t let Arizona’s offensive performance against the Bills in week one scare you away as the Cardinals quietly field an explosive offense with a healthy Kyler Murray back under center and a productive group of skill players surrounding him. While the Dolphins' offense is still projected to be one of the best units in the league, the Bills' defensive scheme and desire to control time of possession is enough to keep the contest tight enough to help cover their part in the Wong teaser.
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