AFC East Predictions, Odds & Projections 2021/2022

AFC East

  • Somehow Bills QB Josh Allen became more accurate and now Buffalo is favored
  • The Dolphins had Tua Tagovailoa under center now and hope to win the AFC East
  • Our longshot to win this division is the New York Jets, possibly rebuilding with a new QB

Bet on AFC East, Here!

In a division long dominated by the Tom Brady led New England Patriots, the GOAT-less AFC East now seems to belong to the surging Buffalo Bills or perhaps the Tua-rich Miami Dolphins, so we look at the predictions, odds, and picks of which of these developing teams could run away with this division. Good luck!

AFC East Division Winner Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, updated on December 23, 2021.

Team Odds
New England Patriots -175
Buffalo Bills +130
Miami Dolphins +100000

Odds from DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or check out more offers and promo codes for the best online sportsbooks.

AFC East Division Predictions and Picks

The Buffalo Bills are just a few roster tweaks away from going deeper into the playoffs, so expect them to post yet another productive season with QB Josh Allen rapidly developing on the job.


Buffalo Bills

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Favorites to Win

Buffalo Bills

The team’s salary cap in 2021 will be lower than expected, so GM Brandon Beane will be forced to get clever this offseason if he expects to use free agency and the upcoming draft to fill in the roster spots he is currently lacking.

This includes another edge rusher and some linebacker depth, both of which could help Josh Allen’s offense get back on the field with the talented playmakers he now has as targets, including WRs John Brown, Stefon Diggs, and Cole Beasley, plus soft-handed tight end Dawson Knox.

Various mock drafts have the Bills using their first-round pick, 30th overall, to snag an edge rusher like Miami’s Gregory Rousseau or else some linebacker talent such as Notre Dame’s Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah or Tulsa’s Zaven Collins.

Miami Dolphins

Given that the 10-6 Dolphins almost made the playoffs last season, they seem to be just a few rosters moves away from getting themselves to that next level, but that is assuming they are happy with Tua Tagovailoa as their franchise quarterback.

In his rookie season, Tagovailoa went 6-3 under center, completing 64.1 percent of his passes for just over 1,800 yards and 11 touchdowns with 5 interceptions, numbers that could see improvement as he continues to learn Miami’s offense and adjust to the NFL level.

The Dolphins have the third overall pick in the draft, so they could use that to grab some more young quarterback talent, like OSU’s Justin Fields, for example, or they could double down on Tua and get him some speedy targets like LSU’s start receiver Ja’Marr Chase.

New England Patriots

With Cam Newton starting at quarterback in New England last season, the team posted their worst record since the 2000 season and failed to make the playoffs for the first time since 2008, the type of failures that do not sit well with GM and HC Bill Belichick.

Now Newton is a free agent and the Patriots’ starting QB job is open, with backups Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer next in line, though chances are the team’s front office is looking to bring in some more veteran help at QB using free agency the way they did last offseason.

But there are plenty of holes to fill in New England’s roster, including in a defense that is historically excellent, so look for the Patriots to use the upcoming draft to snag some young and affordable defensive talent to begin rebuilding the team on that side of the ball.

No Chance to Win

New York Jets

The Jets’ front office was able to land the highly coveted Robert Saleh as their new head coach, the former defensive guru, and coordinator for the 49ers who was destined to lead his own NFL team at some point.

Saleh has inherited a mess in New York, his Jets roster as holey as Swiss cheese on both sides of the ball, but the biggest question he must answer is who his main man under center will be now that Sam Darnold has become QB non gratis after failing to ever lead the Jets to the postseason.

Most mock drafts have the Jets taking BYU quarterback Zach Wilson with the second pick overall, which would involve trading away Darnold the former first-rounder, and given all the salary cap issues that the Jets face this offseason, that type of complicated trade might be easier said than done.

Which Team Has Won the Most AFC East Divisional Titles?

Team Division Titles
New England Patriots 21
Miami Dolphins 13
Buffalo Bills 7
New York Jets 2

Which AFC East Team Has Won the Most Super Bowls?

Team Super Bowls
New England Patriots 6
Miami Dolphins 2
New York Jets 1
Buffalo Bills 0

That honor also goes to the New England Patriots, who have won eleven AFC championships, which they have turned into six Super Bowl wins: XXXVI in 2001, XXXVIII in 2003, XXXIX in 2004, XLIX in 2014, LI in 2016 and LIII in 2018.

Next in line are the Miami Dolphins, who have won thirteen AFC championships, which they have turned into two Super Bowl wins, VII in 1972 and VIII in 1973.

Next come the New York Jets, who have won two AFC championships, which they have turned into one Super Bowl win, III, the AFL-NFL matchup in 1968.

Finally are the Buffalo Bills, who have won four conference championships, which they have turned into zero Super Bowl wins, though they did have two AFL championships in 1964 and 1965.

Bet on AFC East, Here!

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Mike Lukas

Expert on NFL

Mike Lukas is a retired standup comedian turned freelance writer now living in Dallas, Texas, originally from Cleveland, Ohio. His love for the game of football and all things Cleveland Browns turned Mike into a pro blogger years ago. Now Mike enjoys writing about all thirty-two NFL teams, hoping to help football gamblers gain a slight edge in their pursuit of the perfect wager. Email: [email protected]