Spencer Rattler is expected to get his second start while Derek Carr is out with an injury
Star wide receiver Chris Olave is listed as out while dealing with a concussion
The Broncos defense ranks top-5 in the league in Blitz Rate and Pressure Rate
For the second straight week, New Orleans quarterback Spencer Rattler will get the starting nod while surging MVP candidate Derek Carr is still out with an injury. While one performance is hardly enough of an indicator for long-term success, it’s apparent Rattler is a sizable drop off in production when compared to Carr as the Saints starting quarterback ranked first overall in PFF Grade and near the top of the board in EPA per Play before suffering an injury.
Against Denver, Rattler may potentially struggle to generate pass production as he faces off against a Broncos secondary who ranks well above league average in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Not only is he tasked with throwing against a stout coverage unit, he may also find himself under relentless pressure as the Broncos also rank top-5 in Blitz Rate and Pressure Rate. This may lead to an uptick in rush attempts for Alvin Kamara, yet for minimal success as Denver also excels at stuffing the run.
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As alluded to earlier, consistently moving the ball down the field through the air will be a struggle for Spencer Rattler and the Saints' offense as they are set to face off against one of the best coverage units in the league. Entering Thursday night, the Broncos' defense ranks well above league average in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. This a sharp contrast from the Saints' pass attack, a unit who struggles with the short throw as New Orleans offense ranks below league average in Pass Success Rate.
Worse yet for Rattler’s efforts of generating pass production, he may be under constant pressure as the Broncos' defensive front excels at collapsing the pocket. In six weeks of play, the Broncos' defense ranks near the top of the board in Blitz Rate, Pressure Rate, and Adjusted Sack Rate. When under pressure, Rattler will be forced to throw into low-quality passing lanes, increasing the chance of an incompletion.
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With the Saints pass attack in a position to struggle, New Orleans may revert to a heavier dose of the run to help command defensive attention to the middle of the field. While that normally plays towards the over on rushing props, Kamara will have just as hard a time with generating rush production as the Broncos' front seven has been dominant in their efforts of stopping the run. Heading into Thursday, the Broncos' defense ranks near the top of the board in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.
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Speaking of underwhelming pass attacks, the Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix has struggled in his efforts of generating pass production as Denver currently ranks near dead last across the board in Off Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Even when playing behind an offensive line that ranks first overall in Off Adjusted Sack Rate, Nix has failed to stretch out opposing secondaries as his lackluster group of pass catchers struggle to create separation from opposing coverage.
Fortunately for Denver, their ground game will have an opportunity to steal the spotlight as stopping the run has been an issue for the Saints' defense. Especially when in the middle of the field as the Saints front seven ranks well below league average in Def Rush Success Rate and Def Adjusted Line Yards. That indicates the Saints struggle with stopping opposing running backs from cutting the distance to gain in half on first down, as well as stopping them from converting on later downs. Expect an uptick in carries for their lead back Javonte Williams, increasing the chances of him clearing the over on his yardage prop.
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