It was one of the more incredible goalie performances in Stanley Cup history as the Panthers Sergei Bobrovsky successfully walled off a relentless Oilers offensive attack. With minimal support of his defense, an argument can be made that Bobrovsky single handedly won the Panthers game one of the Stanley Cup Finals. Positive regression now looms large should the Oilers generate the same level of offensive pressure that we saw in game one, shading value towards the over as the Panthers offense should continue to find success as well.
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Don’t let the final score fool you, the Edmonton Oilers offense very much controlled the whole entire game with their relentless pressure and high quality shots on net. Crazy to say about a team that got shut out, but after looking into the advanced shot quality stats it’s shocking to see that they failed to put the puck in the back of the net. While they lost 0-3 on the scoreboard, the Oilers won in Expected Goals 5.61-1.88.
Game one’s Expected Goal score tells me two things, positive regression looms large over the Oilers offense while the Panthers will continue to be given high quality scoring opportunities against their goaltender Stuart Skinner. The latter was expected heading into game one, and a big reason why we backed the Panthers on the moneyline as Skinner continues to severely underwhelm in net by allowing in low quality goals.
The Panthers two non-empty net goals emphasize that previous statement as their Expected Goals clocked in at 0.10 and 0.11. While that normally screams negative regression for the Panthers offense, Stuart Skinner’s low level of play in net will continue to keep the Panthers offense competitive as every shot they take will have a higher quality chance of scoring than normal. Skinner enters game two with a Save Percentage of .897 and Goals Against per Game average of 2.47.
As for the Oilers offense, expect positive regression to swing back towards their way as Sergei Bobrovsky can only continue to stand on his head for so long. While an elite talent in his own right, goalies are still prone to letting a few goals in against a high powered offensive attack. Especially when against an improved Oilers 5-on-5 attack, as well as the most formidable power play unit that excels at creating high quality shot attempts with crisp passing and defensive attention shaded towards Connor McDavid.
Speaking of spacing, the Oilers did a phenomenal job of spreading out their attack as seven players clocked in an Expected Goal of 0.30 or higher. That keeps Bobrovsky on the move and under pressure for the full course of 60 minutes, keeping the Oilers in a position to continue to generate high quality shots on goal. Expect more success in the scoring department this time around for Edmonton, as well as the Panthers offense being given scoring chances against the lowly Stuart Skinner.
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