Best NHL Bets Today: Defense to Continue to Shine

After going down 0-1 in the first period, the Florida Panthers finally woke up and skated past the Edmonton Oilers to the tune of 4-1 off of a third period explosion where they scored three of their four goals. With that win, the Panthers have a 2-0 series lead over the Oilers in the Stanley Cup Finals and now have a chance to apply even more pressure should they steal a win in Edmonton. While both units' production have been sporadic, elite defensive play has been a constant and is poised to continue into game three.

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Florida Panthers vs. Edmonton Oilers - Game 3 (8:00 PM, EST)

Under 5.5 (-114) at FanDuel

After anticipating the Edmonton Oilers offense to continue to dominate after finishing game one with an Expected Goal of well over 5.00, the opposite turned out to be true as the Panthers defense roared back to life and smothered the quality of the Oilers Shot Attempts. This resulted in the Oilers offense only generating an Expected Goal of 1.39, 47 Shot Attempts, and 19 Shots on Goal with only one finding the back of the net.

The Panthers defense excelled at shifting across the ice in an effort to match the movement of the puck, consistently keeping a man in front of the opposite side wings and neutralizing their quality of shot. Zach Hyman has been a top performing player for the Oilers offense throughout the playoffs as he has routinely found himself at the top of the board in Expected Goals, yet was held to just one Shot on Goal and an Expected Goal of 0.033.

In the off chance the Oilers did manage to rifle off a high quality Shot on Goal, they found it tough to get past the Panthers star goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky who has continued to play as one of the best goalies in the league. An argument can be made that Bobrovsky single handedly won game one for the Panthers, finishing with an Goals Saved Above Expected of +5.70, and continued to shine in game two with a mark of +0.39.

While his game one performance screamed negative regression, Bobrovsky is one of the rare expectations where his high quality of play is more poised to continue rather than the average goaltender. Bobrovsky has been a consistent force to be reckoned with during the course of the NHL Playoffs, entering game three with a Save Percentage of .916 and a Goals Against per Game average of 2.02.

While the Panthers defense have seemingly rounded back into form, their offense has now underwhelmed two games in a row. The Panthers quality of goals scored have consistently clocked in at a shockingly low mark, finishing game two with an Expected Goal of 0.04, 0.07, and 0.09. Stuart Skinner’s low level of play as the Oilers goalie has contributed to this, but he has actually fared well by not straying too far off from Goals Saved Above Expected with a mark of -0.52 in game one and -0.58 in game two.

Better yet for the under, the amount of penalties being called will steadily decline the deeper we get into the playoffs which limits the number of power plays. With a lesser amount of power plays comes a lower quality of shot attempts from both units, potentially limiting total scoring opportunities as well. Back the under of 5.5 for game three in what should be a low scoring affair.

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