Best NHL Bets Today: Expect Another Abundance of Goals

With a chance to complete the sweep and win the Stanley Cup, the Florida Panthers came out as flat as possible in one of the more embarrassing Finals performances in quite some time. The Edmonton Oilers set the tone early and did not look back as they skated past the Panthers in game four to the tune of 8-1. It got so bad to the point the Panthers threw in the towel and benched Conn Smythe award favorite Sergei Bobrovsky. With Bobrovsky looking mortal, as well as the Panthers offense poised to bounce back, expect another exciting offensive showing in game five of the Stanley Cup Finals.

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Edmonton Oilers vs. Florida Panthers - Game 5 (8:00 PM, EST)

Over 5.5 (-105) at FanDuel

It was a night and day performance from Sergei Bobrovsky when comparing his game one performance to his most recent one in game four. After single handedly winning the Panthers game one with a Goals Saved Above Expected mark of +5.70, Bobrovsky finally looked mortal in game four and finished the contest with a Goals Saved Above Expected of -3.04.

While Bobrovsky does deserve a majority of the blame for allowing in five goals before his benching, some of it should be pointed towards the Panthers back end as the Oilers had no issue with generating high quality Shots on Goal. Edmonton’s offense faced minimal resistance with shifting the puck across the ice, creating high quality shooting lanes towards the net. The Oilers finished with an Expected Goal of 0.25, 0.19, 0.13, 0.09, and 0.05 against Bobrovsky.

While positive regression looming large for Bobrovsky does spell potential trouble for the over, the Oilers offense should still manage to do their part as they have had no issue with generating high quality Shots on Goal all series long. Game four was the first game where it finally swung towards their way after finishing game one with an Expected Goal of 5.61, a 1.39 in game two, and 3.64 in game three. That is an Expected Goal of 10.64 in their first three contests while only scoring an actual total of four goals.

It’s also not as if the Oilers offense was not a dominant unit in their own right, finally playing like we saw in the regular season after drastically underperforming throughout the NHL Playoffs. Especially in 5-on-5 situations, finishing the regular season at the top of the board with an Expected Goal of 3.21, but 10th throughout the playoffs with an Expected Goal of 2.38. A shockingly bad difference, especially for a team that needs to use their offense to mask their horrendous goaltending.

Speaking of their horrendous goaltending, fading Stuart Skinner has been a common theme throughout the playoffs as he has mightily struggled in the Oilers net. He entered the NHL Playoffs as one of the lowest graded goalies in the field of 16, possessing a Save Percentage of .898 and a Goals Against per Game average of 2.51. While he has had brilliant performances like we just saw in game four, his majority of his tape indicates that negative regression looms large entering game five.

Especially since Skinner has routinely allowed low quality Shots on Goal to blow past him, putting the Panthers offense in a great position to round back into form and match the Oilers scoring pace should they maintain their high level of play. Like the Oilers, the Panthers also boasts one of the best offensive units in the league by ranking second in all situations in Expected Goals For throughout the whole season. With positive regression looming large to match the Oilers production, expect another abundance of goals to be scored.

Bet on Over 5.5 (-105) at FanDuel

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