The best two words in all of sports, game seven. That is exactly how we get to cap off our Monday night when the Edmonton Oilers battle it out against the Vancouver Canucks to see who moves on to the next round. It’s also Canada’s last hope to get a Canadian team to the Stanley Cup, a feat that no Canadian team has done since the 90’s. Expect players to tighten up and defenses to take the center stage, bringing us a nail biting low scoring affair. Also be sure to check out our player props for this game, bringing more excitement to pair with our best bet.
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It’s win or go home for both the Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks as they are locked into a game seven to see who moves on to play in the Western Conference Finals against the Stanley Cup favorite Dallas Stars. While this series has featured plenty of offense from both units at times, game seven brings an atmosphere geared towards an under as players limit risk on offense while tightening up their defenses on the opposite end.
The line movement alone agrees with that sentiment as the under opened at 6.5 and has already crashed down to 5.5 in some sportsbooks. There are still some juiced 6.5’s still out there, making it a buy up to -140. If you did not manage to get a 6.5, a favorable plus odds on an under of a flat 6 is okay too. Do not take a 5.5.
As for the game, don’t let game six fool you. It was a lot tighter than the final score indicates. When looking deeper into the Expected Goals over Shot Quality, game six actually ended with an Expected Goals scored of Oilers 2.73 and Canucks 2.70. Low quality shots managed to find the back of the net, indicating that positive regression looms large for both defensive units.
Some of the Oilers goals alone ended up with an Expected Goal of 0.07, 0.02, and 0.08. Arturs Silvos for the Canucks may not exactly be the most dominant goalies in net, but still possesses a Save Percentage of 0.898 and a Goals Against per Game mark of 2.89. Better yet in his favor, game sevens tend to typically see more conservative efforts which limits the rate of penalties and will get to avoid the dreaded Oilers power play.
With the Oilers offense being forced to play more 5 on 5 and positive regression looming large for both defenses, expect a low scoring affair in what will be a nail biting game seven. Drink the juice and take an under of 6.5, or find a plus odds flat 6.
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