After entering the Conference Finals as a favorite to win the Stanley Cup, the Panthers found themselves in a 1-2 hole against the New York Rangers. They have since tied up the series after a 3-2 win in game four, now turning their series into a best of three. Both teams are now just two wins away from advancing to the Stanley Cup Finals, making game five massive to see who takes one step closer to moving on. With the Panthers starting to dominate on both sides of the ice, value lies within their player props ahead of game five.
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Arguably no one in the Eastern Conference Finals was poised for more positive regression than Sergei Bobrovsky heading into game four of the series. After allowing in an abundance of low quality shot attempts in the back of the net in game three, Bobrovsky quickly rounded back into form and held the Rangers to just two. Both goals were hard fought to get there, clocking in an Expected Goal of 0.45 and 0.28.
Speaking of Expected Goals, high quality offense has been tough for the Rangers to come by as game four now marks two games in a row that they have generated an Expected Goal of 2.00 or less. The New York Rangers finished game three with an Expected Goal of 1.69 and an Expected Goal of 1.78 in game four. A big reason for their struggles stems from their lack of 5-on-5 production, ranking well below average in Expected Goals in 5-on-5 situations.
With the Panthers 5-on-5 dominating the Rangers, that leaves their high quality Shots on Goal attempts far and few inbetween. With less high quality shot attempts comes a higher chance of limiting their scoring, playing towards Bobrovsky’s goals against under. Expect Bobrovsky to continue to add to his impressive statline since the start of the NHL Playoffs, possessing a Save Percentage of .904 and Goals Against per Game average of 2.29.
Bet on Sergei Bobrovsky at DraftKings
Much like the Rangers offense poised to regress after another lackluster performance in Expected Goals, the Panthers offense are in a position to continue to dominate after two impressive performances in a row. A source of their offensive production has stemmed from the consistent play from Carter Verhaeghe, coming off of game three with an Expected Goal of 0.83 and 0.48 in game four.
His consistency was rewarded in game four when he scored in the second period to take a 2-1 lead. Verhaeghe has maintained a high level of aggressiveness with generating high quality Shots on Goal as his Expected Goal marks indicate as well as putting himself in favorable positions to score. While his over on Shots on Goal is tempting, I am bypassing it and taking his goalscorer prop as players tend to get more conservative the deeper a series gets.
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