After comfortably outpacing the Florida Panthers in Expected Goals in the first two games of the Stanley Cup Finals, the Edmonton Oilers offense fell hard back down to reality after severely underwhelming in game three. Stuart Skinner also reverted back to his old ways, resulting in a goalie change late in the contest. Should Calvin Pickard get the start for game four, then that creates the perfect opportunity to escalator bet the full game under.
As previously mentioned, the play on the total will be decided by who Edmonton starts at goalie in game four. After Stuart Skinner regressed in game three, the Oilers may give Calvin Pickard the opportunity to earn back the starting role he lost when he suffered an injury. Pickard was the more consistent goalie this season as he led Skinner in average Goals Against per game and in Save Percentage. It is also worth noting that Pickard is currently 6-0 in his starts this postseason.
Edmonton’s back line also excels in coverage which will help Pickard ease back into his start as the Oilers ended the year ranked second overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 2.79 Expected Goals Against per game. If it is reported Pickard is getting the start for game four, then escalator bet the full game under by placing smaller wagers on the alternate totals. Should Skinner get the start in net for Edmonton instead, then just play the full game under of 6.5 for a smaller amount.
Positive regression looms large over Leon Draisaitl after he was held without a Shot on Goal in game three. A stunning performance from the Hart Memorial Trophy contender, especially when he averages over three Shots on Goal per game. Even when matched up against a back line who leads all playoff contenders in Expected Goals Against, Draisaitl has had no issue with pressuring their net due to the high quality shooting lanes his linemate Connor McDavid creates by pulling defensive attention away from him.
Connor McDavid has been active in his efforts of creating pressure in front of the Panthers net as he finished game one with an Expected Goal of 0.37 and game two with a 1.01. With Zach Hyman out with an injury, McDavid has been tasked with shouldering a heavier workload in an effort to keep their offense competitive. This prop also serves as a reminder to always line shop before placing a bet as his odds to score the first goal can be found as low as +425 which is a difference of $525 in profit for a $100 bettor.
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