Who Will Win the 2028 GOP Nomination? Markets Say Vance

With President Donald Trump set to exit the White House after his second term concludes, Kalshi prediction market users have lined up a list of candidates for the Republican nomination in the 2028 US Presidential Election.

Key Takeaways Republican Nomination 2028

• J.D. Vance ceded a considerable amount of ground to Marco Rubio

• Tucker Carlson, an independent right-wing news host, is third among all candidates

• Prediction markets may change significantly based on the war with Iran

• The Republican nominee likely won’t be announced until spring or summer in 2028

Current 2028 Republican Nomination Prediction Market Odds 

Which candidates are best positioned to make the 2028 Presidential ticket on behalf of the Republican Party? Here’s a look at prediction market prices at Kalshi as of March 16, 2026.

2028 Republican Nomination Prediction Market Analysis 

It comes as no surprise that current Vice President J.D. Vance is the favorite to secure the Republican nomination, though his lead has significantly narrowed to roughly a 31% chance of earning the distinction. Acting National Security Advisor and Secretary of State Marco Rubio has surged to close the gap almost completely, pulling away from the rest of the field with a 30% chance to go toe-to-toe with the Democratic nominee.

The one major shock is that Tucker Carlson – an independent right-wing political commentator and activist – is third in Kalshi users’ expected likelihood at roughly 5 to 6%. He’s ahead of Trump’s namesake legacy (Donald Trump Jr.), Trump himself (who wouldn’t be eligible for a third term without a Constitutional amendment), prominent Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and other notable candidates.

J.D. Vance

Vance, who was only 40 when he was sworn in as Vice President of the United States, was long projected to represent the Republican Party in the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election. He served as a U.S. Senator from Ohio from 2023-25, before which he was a military journalist in the U.S. Marine Corps and graduated from Ohio State University and Yale University. He’s a strong proponent of immigration restrictions, reduced foreign intervention, conservative social issues, and pro-life policies.

Place your prediction on a contract on J.D. Vance

Marco Rubio

Rubio, 54, was a member of the Florida House of Representatives, the U.S. Senate, and is now the U.S. Secretary of State and acting National Security Advisor. He heavily criticized President Trump during the 2016 Presidential Election, but he later endorsed him and grew to become one of Trump’s most trusted voices. He is known for his support of a strong military, promoting policies to help keep America ahead of China, corporate tax cuts, and conservative social views.

Place your prediction on a contract on Marco Rubio

Tucker Carlson

Carlson, 56, is known for challenging the establishment as the host of his independent right-wing political news network. Although he’s still heavily in the “America First” movement, his shift toward populism and away from existing structures has made him more agreeable with younger voters. He’s critical of both immigration and U.S. foreign intervention and has dived into what would traditionally be considered “conspiracy theories.”

Place your prediction on a contract on Tucker Carlson

Republican Nomination Prediction Market Sleeper

Lest we forget, President Trump once polled less than one percent and was an enormous underdog in the Republican party ahead of the 2016 U.S. Presidential election. Upsets happen all over the world, and politics are not exempt from that rule.

Securing the nomination could be an uphill battle without an endorsement from President Trump. However, that vote of confidence may never come if Trump himself remains steadfast in finding a way to become the second President to get back into the Oval Office for a third term.

Josh Hawley

Hawley, a 46-year-old U.S. Senator from Missouri, is a supporter of right-wing populism who has fought against “elites” in politics and business. One of Trump's key allies, he believes in an “America first” approach and has lashed out at Democratic policies, although he also took more liberal stances on familial issues, such as expanding the child tax credit, raising the minimum wage, and regulating large corporations. His blend of focuses could help him appeal to more middle-ground voters without losing confidence from Trump-backers.

Why the Republican Nomination Prediction Market is Moving

While Vance has been the favorite since Trump took office, the biggest evolution in this market has been Marco Rubio's meteoric rise to make this a true toss-up.

Rubio was only given an 11% chance to secure the Republican nomination on New Year’s Day. He’s nearly three times more likely than he was at the start of the year, having risen to a 30% likelihood, now sitting practically neck-and-neck with Vance.

Rubio’s rise is directly tied to the U.S.’s foreign policy. As Secretary of State and the acting National Security Advisor, his profile and responsibilities grew considerably once the war with Iran erupted. In early May, following a highly praised fill-in appearance as White House press secretary where he charmed the press corps and fiercely defended the administration's handling of the conflict, Rubio's stock skyrocketed. He actually briefly overtook Vance as the most likely candidate to win the general election outright on Kalshi, though Vance still maintains a slim one-point lead for the primary nomination.

Trump himself noted that Rubio had become a “popular” and “loved” member of his inner circle, sources told ABC News. Additionally, the news outlet reported that Republican donors had discussed ways to increase Rubio’s political status ahead of the 2028 Presidential Election.

Place a Contract on Your Opinion on Kalshi

How Republican Nomination Prediction Markets Work

Prediction contracts are directly related to the outcome of an event, in this case, the Republican nomination, similar to other prediction market events.

Users can purchase “Yes” or “No” contracts for any individuals listed on Kalshi’s market. The contract will settle once the nominee is confirmed, and based on whether the purchased contract was correct or incorrect.

Nominees are typically revealed in the spring or summer before the election and officially nominated at the National Convention in late summer. However, there is no set date for when the contracts will settle. 

Prices for each contract are determined by real-time market dynamics from the customer base. Every winning contract will pay $1, no matter the price, and every losing contract will pay $0. The price at the time the contract settles is irrelevant.

For example, a user who purchases 10 contracts for $0.05 for Tucker Carlson to secure the nomination will pay $0.50 for the chance to win $10. 

Republican Nomination Prediction Markets vs. Traditional Sportsbooks 

Legal sportsbooks are not allowed to offer political betting markets, making prediction markets the primary solution for those looking to trade on political futures.

When comparing prediction markets vs. sportsbooks, the core structural differences become obvious despite their visual similarities. For starters, prediction contract prices are based entirely on peer-to-peer supply and demand, whereas sportsbooks utilize house-made odds that contain a vig (a built-in margin to ensure the “house always wins”).

Sportsbooks’ vigs also distort the true probability of an outcome. For example, true even money implies a 50% probability (+100 odds), but sportsbooks typically set their odds at -110 on each side for balanced two-outcome markets. This equals a total implied probability of about 104.8% (52.4% each side).

Prediction markets instead charge transparent transaction fees, but they don’t bake a vig into their contract prices.

Because of this structure, any market with a live trading probability greater than 50% is always the favorite at prediction platforms. In the event that no outcome reaches 50%, the option with the highest trading probability is considered the favorite.

Where to Trade Republican Nomination Markets Legally 

Prediction platforms available for American customers must be licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This regulation ensures that markets are compliant with general guidelines and that consumers are afforded a variety of protections.

There are many prediction platforms that offer markets in sports, entertainment, politics, and the financial industry. Here are a few of the top prediction market operators: