2028 California Governor Prediction Markets to Replace Newsom

With incumbent Gavin Newsom term-limited as California Governor, prediction markets are offering contracts for an array of candidates to win the California Gubernatorial Election in November. 

Key Takeaways on Who Will Win the 2028 California Gubernatorial Election

• Career politician Xavier Becerra is a strong favorite to win the election

• Current California Gov. Gavin Newsom is a top candidate to win the 2028 Presidential Election

• London-born Steve Hilton is the top Republican candidate

• Rep. Eric Swalwell, previously the top candidate, recently dropped out of the race following accusations of sexual assault

Current 2028 California Governor Prediction Market Chances 

Which candidates are in a position to not only run for the soon-to-be-vacated title of California Governor, but to actually win the gubernatorial election? This is how the Kalshi user base sees the race unfolding as of May 20, 2026. 

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2026 California Governor Prediction Market Analysis 

Becerra, an attorney and the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services under President Joe Biden from 2021-25, is a strong leader in the political prediction market. He gained support from other Democrats after former Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race, using his political experience as a tool to inch ahead of competing individuals, many of whom have much shorter resumes.

Billionaire and political activist Thomas Steyer is second in Kalshi’s market prices. Also a Democrat, Strayer is known for his huge spending on pro-progressive policy lobbying efforts and organizations. The remaining candidates' chances of winning the election are significantly lower, with only one individual boasting a chance of at least 10 percent.

Xavier Becerra | 66% ($.59)

Becerra, 68, has been in office since he was a member of the California State Assembly in 1990. He was also the California Attorney General from 2017 to 2021 and a U.S. Representative from California from 1993 until 2017. He’s running on a platform that is focused on lowering the cost of living, expanding healthcare, and increasing the state’s resistance to the federal government. 

Place Your Prediction on Contract on Xavier Becerra

Tom Steyer | 23% ($.27)

The 68-year-old Steyer founded and managed Farallon Capital until 2012. He left and became active in advocating for climate protection and Democratic politics, later founding NextGen America and co-founding Galvanize Climate Solutions. A former Yale and Stanford grad, he does not have political experience aside from working on Walter Mondale’s presidential campaign in 1983 and a failed attempt to secure the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, not counting his fundraising efforts.

Place Your Prediction on Contract on Tom Steyer

Steve Hilton | 9.7% ($.09)

A 56-year-old British-American conservative, Hilton is a political commentator and former FOX News host. He has serious political experience, having previously served as the director of strategy for British Prime Minister David Cameron from 2010 to 2012. If elected, he would be the first Republican Governor of California since Arnold Schwarzenegger, who served from 2003 until 2011.

Place Your Prediction on Contract on Steve Hilton

California Gubernatorial Election Prediction Market Sleeper 

Upsets happen every day. While there are several candidates that have pulled ahead from the pack in California Governor prediction markets, there are several others who are alive and well in the role of the underdog.

In an era that is focused on digitizing and appealing to the masses, a candidate who finds a way to leverage the internet and social media, while still appealing to older TV-based audiences, would stand a great chance at securing the nomination. Here’s one person who could throw a wrench into the race.

Katie Porter | 0.6% ($.011)

52-year-old Katie Porter, a former member of the U.S. House of Reps. from California, has pledged to “stand up” to President Trump” and to “fight for Californians.” Her base revolved around serving people, not big corporations, by helping with the rising costs of housing, groceries, child care, education, transportation, and retirement. Taking on Trump is a bold task that comes with lots of jabs and verbal altercations, but if Porter is up to the task — after Gov. Newsom similarly engaged with the President — she may be able to swing enough votes. 

Place Your Prediction on Contract on Katie Porter

Why the California Governor Prediction Market is Moving 

The collapse of Eric Swalwell’s campaign opened the door to other candidates, namely the favorite, Becerra, to experience rapid growth in their chances of winning the California gubernatorial election.

It was no surprise that Newsom did not seek reelection, given that he was term-limited. Even still, his leadership in California has been strong, in the sense that he was never under a real challenge to lose his position, meaning that his departure leaves the door open to significant change across the state.

There could also be substantial national implications if a Republican were to win the election. California is typically a Democratic stronghold, carrying 54 electoral votes for the Presidential Election. A Republican winning the gubernatorial election would put the state on track to add a huge twist to the 2028 race, for which presidential election prediction markets believe that Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Newsom are essentially locked in a three-way tie.

How California Gubernatorial Election Prediction Markets Work 

California gubernatorial prediction markets are direct reflections of consumer belief related to the ongoing race to become the state’s next Governor.

Kalshi users can purchase binary contracts that say “Yes” or “No” for a candidate to win the upcoming gubernatorial election. 

Contracts will only settle once the winner of the election is confirmed. Individuals who purchased “Yes” contracts for the winner and/or “No” contracts for losers will receive $1 for every contract they held, while individuals who purchased “Yes” contracts for the losers or a “No” contract for the winner will not receive any winnings.

Prices for contracts are constantly changing and represent the feelings of prediction market users; the higher a price for a contract, the more likely that users believe that the individual is to win the election.

Higher-price contracts also result in lower ROIs for traders. For example, an individual who pays $.50 for one contract of Becerra to win would claim $.50 in profit, whereas a single $.02 contract for Porter to win would produce a $.98 profit if she finished with the most votes.

California Governor Prediction Markets vs. Traditional Sportsbooks 

Legal sportsbooks in America are limited to offering betting odds for sports, not political events, such as elections.

Despite appearing similar in their offerings, there are distinct differences between prediction markets and sportsbooks. Prediction markets utilize contracts whose prices are determined by users, whereas the best online sportsbooks allow customers to bet against house-made odds.

Sportsbook odds also include vigs, which effectively act as a tax to ensure that the “house always wins.” Prediction platforms implement charges such as transaction fees, but they do not district probabilities in the same manner.

Prediction platforms also indicate favorites and underdogs through their percentages. Any outcome with a 50% chance is the co-favorite or outright favorite, or, in the event that no outcome has a probability of at least 50%, the outcome with the highest likelihood is considered the favorite. 

Where to Trade California Governor Markets Legally

As prediction markets have continued to grow in popularity, they have become available for most users across the country. Many of these platforms incentivize new sign-ups by offering some of the best prediction bonuses to help offset your initial trading costs.

Licensed prediction operators are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which ensures that they are compliant with their set of standards and offer typical customer protections. 

The best prediction market sites will have sports, entertainment, politics, finance, and more industries covered. Here are a few of the top choices on the market.

All in all, customers in every state should have at least one prediction platform available on which they may buy and sell contracts in various markets.