2028 California Governor Race Predictions: Who Will Replace Gavin Newsom?

With incumbent Gavin Newsom term-limited as California Governor, prediction markets are offering contracts for an array of candidates to win the California Gubernatorial Election in November. 

Key Takeaways on Who Will Win the 2028 California Gubernatorial Election

• Career politician Xavier Becerra is a strong favorite to win the election

• Current California Gov. Gavin Newsom is a top candidate to win the 2028 Presidential Election

• London-born Steve Hilton is the top Republican candidate

• Rep. Eric Swalwell, previously the top candidate, recently dropped out of the race following accusations of sexual assault

2028 California Governor Race Odds at Kalshi 

Which candidates are in a position to not only run for the soon-to-be-vacated title of California Governor, but to actually win the gubernatorial election? This is how the Kalshi, one of the best US prediction market apps, user base sees the race unfolding as of May 20, 2026. 

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California Governor winner? (Party)

In 2026

• Democratic 97%
• Republican 4%

Source: Kalshi. Data is automatically updated according to market conditions.

2026 California Governor Prediction Market Analysis

With the June 2 primary now a couple of weeks behind us, Xavier Becerra has cemented his position as the clear betting favorite in the political prediction markets. Becerra, an attorney and the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services under President Joe Biden from 2021-25, officially advanced to the November general election. He gained massive support from other Democrats after former Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race in April, using his political experience to consolidate the Democratic base and secure the most votes.

Republican Steve Hilton claimed the second spot on the general election ballot, narrowly edging out billionaire and political activist Thomas Steyer and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. Steyer, known for his huge spending on progressive policy lobbying efforts, has now been eliminated from the race alongside the rest of the crowded 61-candidate primary field.

Xavier Becerra (Advanced to General Election)

At 68 years old, Xavier Becerra brings decades of public service to his gubernatorial bid. His extensive political career began in the California State Assembly in 1990, followed by 24 years as a U.S. Representative and a term as California Attorney General from 2017 to 2021. Most recently, he served as the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services under President Biden. Becerra's platform focuses on lowering the cost of living, expanding healthcare access, and bolstering the state’s resistance against the federal government. Fueled by a late surge of mail-in ballots, he comfortably captured the number one spot in the primary, advancing to the fall general election as the Democratic frontrunner.

Place Your Prediction on a Contract on Xavier Becerra

Steve Hilton (Advanced to General Election)

At 56 years old, British-American conservative Steve Hilton secured his spot in the November general election following a crucial endorsement from Donald Trump, which propelled him past Republican rival Chad Bianco. Widely recognized as a political commentator and former FOX News host, Hilton also brings high-level government experience to his campaign, having served as director of strategy for British Prime Minister David Cameron from 2010 to 2012. If he is victorious this fall, Hilton would become California's first Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger's term ended in 2011.

Place Your Prediction on a Contract on Steve Hilton

Tom Steyer (Eliminated in Primary)

A 68-year-old former hedge fund executive, Tom Steyer founded and managed Farallon Capital until 2012 before pivoting entirely to Democratic politics and climate advocacy. The Yale and Stanford graduate went on to found NextGen America and co-found Galvanize Climate Solutions. Aside from his unsuccessful run for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and early work on Walter Mondale's 1983 campaign, Steyer largely lacks traditional political experience. Despite injecting a massive amount of personal wealth into his California gubernatorial bid, he ultimately finished third in the June 2 primary and has been eliminated from the race.

Why the California Governor Prediction Market is Moving

As we head deeper into the summer, prediction markets have stabilized into the Becerra vs. Hilton matchup, but the volatility leading up to June 2 was historic.

The first major shift occurred when Eric Swalwell’s campaign collapsed in April following allegations of sexual misconduct. His sudden exit opened the door for Becerra to experience rapid growth in his chances of winning as Democratic establishment support consolidated behind him.

Prior to the primary, prediction markets priced in a high probability that two Democrats would advance and lock Republicans out of the general election entirely. However, Hilton's late surge—bolstered by his Trump endorsement—unified enough of the conservative vote to secure his spot on the November ballot.

Looking ahead, a Republican winning the gubernatorial election in a Democratic stronghold like California would have massive national implications. It would put the state on track to add a huge twist to the 2028 presidential race, where prediction markets currently view Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Governor Newsom as essentially locked in a three-way tie.

How California Gubernatorial Election Prediction Markets Work 

California gubernatorial prediction markets are direct reflections of consumer belief related to the ongoing race to become the state’s next Governor.

Kalshi users can purchase binary contracts that say “Yes” or “No” for a candidate to win the upcoming gubernatorial election. 

Contracts will only settle once the winner of the election is confirmed. Individuals who purchased “Yes” contracts for the winner and/or “No” contracts for losers will receive $1 for every contract they held, while individuals who purchased “Yes” contracts for the losers or a “No” contract for the winner will not receive any winnings.

Prices for contracts are constantly changing and represent the feelings of prediction market users; the higher a price for a contract, the more likely that users believe that the individual is to win the election.

Higher-price contracts also result in lower ROIs for traders. For example, an individual who pays $.50 for one contract of Becerra to win would claim $.50 in profit, whereas a single $.02 contract for Porter to win would produce a $.98 profit if she finished with the most votes.

California Governor Prediction Markets vs. Traditional Sportsbooks 

Legal sportsbooks in America are limited to offering betting odds for sports, not political events, such as elections. When evaluating the landscape of prediction markets vs. sportsbooks, there are distinct differences despite their superficial similarities. Prediction markets utilize contracts whose prices are determined entirely by peer-to-peer user trading activity, whereas the best online sportsbooks allow customers to bet against house-made odds.

Sportsbook odds also include a built-in "vig" (vigorish), which effectively acts as a tax to ensure that the “house always wins.” Prediction platforms instead typically implement minor platform or transaction fees, but they do not distribute probabilities in the same manner.

Prediction platforms also indicate favorites and underdogs through live market percentages. Any outcome with a 50% chance or higher is the co-favorite or outright favorite, or, in the prediction market event that no outcome has a probability of at least 50%, the outcome with the highest likelihood is considered the favorite.

Where to Trade California Governor Markets Legally

As prediction markets have continued to grow in popularity, they have become available for most users across the country. Many of these platforms incentivize new sign-ups by offering some of the best prediction bonuses to help offset your initial trading costs.

Licensed prediction operators are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which ensures that they are compliant with their set of standards and offer typical customer protections.

All in all, customers in every state should have at least one prediction platform available on which they may buy and sell contracts in various markets.