Who Will Win the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election? Political Prediction Markets Are Tracking the Race

The race to win the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election is already on, even as current President Donald Trump continues to work his way through his second term in office. Political prediction markets are tracking his right-hand man, Vice President J.D. Vance, as the favorite, although he’s being closely followed by multiple challengers. 

Key Takeaways on the U.S. Presidential Election

• VP J.D. Vance is the favorite but is falling

• Democrats are favored to win the election, but two of the top three candidates are Republicans

• The armed conflict with Iran is having a strong impact on candidates’ probabilities

• Election markets won’t settle until the 2028 results are confirmed

Current 2028 Presidential Election Prediction Market Odds 

2028 Presidential Election Prediction Market Analysis 

There are still more than two years until the Presidential election, meaning the market still has multiple natural cycles to go through before the race to win the presidency is fully refined. However, the board still reflects the way that the candidates are stacking up against one another.

Vance is the unsurprising favorite, as Vice Presidents often are when their bosses are still in office. However, his expected probability has consistently dropped throughout 2026 as several prominent candidates have gained steam in their pursuit of the right to sit behind the desk in the Oval Office. Here’s a look at the top options in the Kalshi Presidential Election prediction market. 

J.D. Vance (R) | 20% ($.21)

Vance, who will be 43 by the time of the election, is the current Vice President of the United States and a former U.S. Senator from Ohio. He is thought of as a right-wing populist, with a special focuse on border security, immigration control, supporting American manufacturing, and pro-life policies. 

He would tie John F. Kennedy for the title of the second-youngest President in American history, only one year behind Theodore Roosevelt, if he won the election. His chances will greatly hinge on the outcome of the armed conflict with Iran, in which he has been heavily involved, serving as a foreign policy advisor to President Trump.

Place Your Prediction on J.D. Vance at Kalshi

Gavin Newsom (D) | 18% ($.18)

Newsom, who will be 61 come election time, is serving as California’s 40th Governor, following his service as the California Lt. Gov., the Mayor of San Francisco, and a member of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors. He’s known for holding progressive ideologies, including empowering the LGBT community, enforcing gun control, fighting climate change, and supporting many liberal policies that contradict President Trump’s beliefs.

While many prominent Democratic candidates have lost the general jostle with their Republican counterparts, Newsom has shown a willingness to take confrontation head-on. He has been seen as the future face of the Democratic Party since Kamala Harris lost the 2024 Presidential Election and is the favorite to secure the party’s nomination.

Place Your Prediction on Gavin Newsom at Kalshi

Marco Rubio (R) | 15% ($.15)

Rubio, once a fierce opponent of Trump during the 2016 Presidential Election, has become one of his strongest allies, assuming the roles of the U.S. Secretary of State and the Acting U.S. National Security Advisor. He previously served as a U.S. Senator from Florida as both the Speaker and a member of the Florida House of Representatives. 

The Miami native—who would be 57 at the time of the election—has seen a sustained increase in likelihood over the last few months amid Vance’s descent. The outcome of the conflict with Iran should also greatly impact his reputation, seeing as he has his hands all over America’s foreign policy.

Place Your Prediction on Marco Rubio at Kalshi

2028 Presidential Election Prediction Market Sleeper 

The favored outcomes are the favorites for a reason: they have the greatest likelihood of occurring. With that being said, there are examples across time and industry that show that the expected result is not always the one that plays out.

Even though we already dove into the three top candidates on the board, there are a plethora of others who remain in contention to win the 2028 Presidential Election and pay big for all “Yes” contract traders. There’s also one that stands out in particular as someone who could become a serious threat to Vance, Newsom, and Rubio. 

Josh Shapiro (D) | 3.6% ($.036)

Shapiro currently stands sixth in the race to win the U.S. Presidency, according to Kalshi’s user base. The 52-year-old is a native of Kansas City, Missouri, but he currently presides as the Pennsylvania Gov. after working as the state’s attorney general and a member of the PA House of Representatives.

The Democrat supports abortion, voting rights, and developing educational opportunities. His political focus is centered on unity with a “Get Stuff Done” approach, which involves working across parties. That collaboration, combined with his action-focused approach, has helped tackle major issues and could make him an appealing candidate for more central voters.

Place Your Prediction on Josh Shapiro at Kalshi

Why the 2028 Presidential Election Prediction Market is Moving 

The situation with Iran is the biggest news topic in the world, much less in the U.S. The events and eventual outcome of that should be reflected by a movement in probabilities, with candidates responding along party lines based on the perceived success or failure of the operation.

There are also other factors, such as an increasing cost of living and a declining economy, which has lightened up now that some stability has returned following the initial attack of Iran.

How 2028 U.S. Presidential Election Prediction Markets Work 

Purchasing contracts in the U.S. Presidential Election market, and all political markets, is simple. 

Users are presented with binary “Yes” and “No” options. The next step is to identify an outcome of interest and purchase a corresponding contract(s) that equals the amount of money that is willing to be risked.

Let’s pretend that a user has $10 to trade, and they believe that Gavin Newsom will win the election. They could take their money and purchase “Yes” contracts for Newsom, or they could buy “No” contracts for any candidate not named Gavin Newsom.

Presidential Election Political Prediction Markets vs. Traditional Sportsbooks 

Sportsbooks and prediction markets have similar offerings in that they both allow customers to risk money to potentially win even more if they can correctly prognosticate the future.

The primary differences between the platforms are in how they operate. Sportsbooks use house-made odds with vigs, which are essentially built-in charges that ensure that the house will always stay ahead by adding implied probability beyond the true maximum of 100 percent.

Any outcome with a probability greater than 50 percent is always the favorite at prediction platforms. The outcome with the highest probability will also be the favorite, even in the event that no possible outcomes exceed 50 percent.

Prediction platforms have transaction fees and other charges, but their contract probabilities are real-time reflections of market sentiment. Each trade can alter the probability or price of an outcome, which is associated with peer-to-peer-traded contracts. 

While both outlets offer markets for sports, the U.S. does not authorize traditional betting in political markets. Anyone hoping to find betting odds for the 2028 Presidential Elections from verified U.S. sportsbooks will be out of luck.

Where to Trade 2028 Presidential Election Political Markets Legally 

Top prediction market sites are enjoying a strong surge of momentum as the industry continues to take hold. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has already licensed a variety of outlets and is continuing to add new operators that are suitable for the marketplace.

Of the many prediction apps that offer contracts in politics, sports, finance, weather, entertainment, and more industries, there are four on which we are going to focus. Here’s the low-down for each operator.

• Kalshi: The most popular prediction platform in America, Kalshi has offered markets in all 50 states. However, it was recently hit with criminal charges in Arizona and lost a key court battle in Nevada as state regulators continue to opine that their markets are effectively illegal gambling odds.

• Crypto.com: This platform is legal in 41 states. The ones that are not included in available jurisdictions are Arizona, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, and Ohio.

• OG: Owned and operated by Crypto.com, this prediction app is available in 48 states. Users in Arizona and New York will have to turn elsewhere for their predictive endeavors.

• Underdog: Underdog offers sports betting, fantasy sports contests, and prediction markets, making it unique in the marketplace. It offers prediction markets in 32 states, omitting Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee.