ATP Cincinnati Predictions, Odds & Picks
- Filip to provide fillip for punters
- Tie-break looms in Isner v Norrie
- Back Basilashvili again in Cincy
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ATP Cincinnati Picks
Filip Krajinovic to beat Alex de Minaur at +110 at bet365
Over 12.5 games in first set of John Isner v Cameron Norrie at +150 at bet365
Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Fabio Fognini at -140 at bet365
How to Watch ATP Cincinnati
|ATP Cincinnati Information|
|What||ATP Western and Southern Open|
|Location||Cincinnati, Ohio, USA|
|Time||Sunday August 15 to Sunday August 22|
|How to Watch||Tennis Channel|
Filip Krajinovic vs Alex de Minaur
|Filip Krajinovic||+115 |
|Alex de Minaur||-140 |
De Minaur missed the Olympics following a positive COVID-19 test and has since lost both matches on the North American hardcourts.
His 6-1 6-1 defeat to Nikoloz Basilashvili in Toronto last week was a worrying one and the Australian doesn’t look in great shape heading into this clash.
Krajinovic will be playing his first hardcourt match since March – he opted to play the three-week European clay swing after Wimbledon, beating Stefanos Tsitsipas en route to the final in Hamburg – but his game should fit in well to the speedy conditions expected in Cincinnati. It has always played quick here and the new Laykold courts may accentuate that further.
It was on Laykold at this event last year (admittedly held in New York) that the Serb crushed Dominic Thiem, with his serve highly impressive.
I’d expect the conditions to be a bit too fast for De Minaur here with Krajinovic, whose game is not dissimilar to Basilashvili’s, having the tools to take him down as a +110 underdog.
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John Isner vs Cameron Norrie
These two have played each other twice before, each claiming a victory, but both have been tight matches.
There have been just two breaks of serve in the five sets played and so it makes sense to look towards the tie-break markets.
Isner’s serve was firing well until running into Daniil Medvedev in Toronto. He was broken just twice in four matches en route to that semi-final showdown.
Norrie’s form has dipped a little since winning the title in Los Cabos, an event where he also lost serve only twice in four matches. Still, I’d expect his serve to dominate Isner’s weak return game.
The big American played a first-set tie-break in four of his five matches en route to winning the title in Atlanta recently and with conditions here set to be even slightly faster, I’ll happily back another one here at +150.
It’s a bet which has landed in both of their previous encounters.
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Fabio Fognini vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
|Nikoloz Basilashvili||-140 |
|Fabio Fognini||+110 |
Basilashvili delivered this column a tasty +210 winner last week in Toronto and while the Georgian’s price has tumbled for his first-round match in Ohio, he still looks worth backing.
The layers make this a 50-50 contest but if Basilashvili plays as he did last week, I’d expect him to be too good for Fognini, who may find these courts to fast for his liking.
Basilashvili won us money against Jenson Brookksby and then dismantled Alex de Minaur before losing 6-4 in the third set to Wimbledon semi-finalist Hubert Hurkacz.
It’s worth remembering he also pushed eventual gold medallist Alex Zverev hard at the Olympics last month.
Fognini beat Jan-Lennard Struff before losing to Andrey Rublev in Toronto – not brilliant form but not bad either. However, I’d expect Basilashvili’s power to trouble him in these conditions and will back him in what the sportsbooks have as a 50-50 contest.
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Round Two Upsets?
The top eight seeds all get first-round byes this week so it’s worth looking at who may be in trouble in their opener.
Casper Ruud looks a prime candidate, although he won’t be the favorite if he faces Toronto finalist Reilly Opelka in his first match.
There could be a better chance of a big payout with Lloyd Harris, should he face Alex Zverev.
The German will be playing for the first time since his Olympic success and he’ll find conditions much quicker here than in Tokyo.
That’s a potential problem against a player who has been in North America for weeks, and one who beat Rafael Nadal recently in Washington.
Matteo Berrettini is another returning to action after a break. He’s not played since Wimbledon due to a thigh problem and Taylor Fritz has the tools to punish any ring rust.
Like Harris, Fritz is bedded in on the hardcourts having made semi-final runs in Los Cabos and Atlanta. He won the pair’s only previous meeting and could win a serve-dominated match.
Best Outright Pick
Stefanos Tsitsipas was angry at himself for losing to Reilly Opelka in the Toronto semi-finals the other day – he knew he’d missed a great chance and had only himself to blame following a couple of untimely double-faults in a key game in what was always going to be a tight match.
Still, the rest of the week was certainly a plus – the Greek had looked in great nick before running into the American’s huge serve.
He’s a player who likes to play a lot of matches and so he’ll be keen to get back on the horse and continue his momentum on the road towards the US Open.
Alex Zverev and Matteo Berrettini look the biggest threats in the bottom half of the draw but, as indicated above, both are transitioning into these conditions and could be vulnerable. In any case, Tsitsipas leads Zverev 6-2 in their head-to-head and is 3-0 up on Berrettini.
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Andy is a sports journalist of more than 20 years’ experience and is a former betting editor of the UK-based website, Sporting Life. He has specialized in tennis for many years, previewing hundreds of ATP Tour events and reporting from tournaments such as the ATP Finals and Davis Cup final. Andy has also covered numerous other sports, with a particular interest in soccer and cricket.