ATP National Bank Open: Brooksby Could Be the Man to Take Advantage of That Kyrgios-Medvedev Draw

• De Minaur looks a good price
• Nakashima a lively outsider
• Murray can land upset
• Back Brooksby to surprise

ATP National Bank Open Picks

Alex de Minaur to beat Denis Shapovalov at -135 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Brandon Nakashima to beat Cameron Norrie at +163 at bet365

Andy Murray to beat Taylor Fritz at +207 at PointsBet

Jenson Brooksby to win ATP Montreal at +4000 at bet365

Picks made on 08/07/2022 at 06:23 PM EST

Denis Shapovalov vs Alex de Minaur

Since beating Rafael Nadal in Madrid, Shapovalov has won just one of nine matches he’s played.

He’ll hope a return to home soil in Canada will work in his favor but frankly I’m surprised to see opponent De Minaur as big as -135 to win this.

The Australian’s confidence is much higher right now – it’s only just over a week ago that he emerged as the champion in Atlanta.

Yes, he did lose early in Washington last week but that wasn’t the biggest surprise given his efforts the previous week, while his conqueror, Yoshihito Nishioka, did go on to reach the final.

In addition, the head-to-head record also works against Shapovalov.

De Minaur leads 2-0 with both matches being played on a hardcourt.

The DecoTurf surface in Montreal is medium-paced so should give De Minaur opportunity to shine and he looks worth backing at -135.

Cameron Norrie vs Brandon Nakashima

Norrie arrives here off the back of a final run in Los Cabos.

The Briton has long enjoyed his trips to Mexico to play on the slow Solflex courts but his record in Canada is much poorer – just one win in two visits with the faster courts not working for him.

Nakashima subsequently looks like a big price here.

The pair have split their two previous hardcourt meetings with the American not being the easiest man to break – he’s holding 84% of the time this season, five percentage points higher than Norrie, whose return stats are admittedly better.

With Norrie’s quick turnaround – these two will play on Tuesday – I’m tempted by Nakashima at +163.

Andy Murray vs Taylor Fritz

Former world number one Murray has shown he’s still got the old performance in him, usually at the start of a tournament when his body is still in decent shape.

And one suspects he’ll be relishing the chance to take on Fritz, given the American’s current state.

Fritz was, rather worryingly, forced to quit last week in the heat and humidity of Washington.

He later revealed his vision was blurred and that he felt like he was going to “pass out”.

Fritz added that his tournament preparations had been hampered by a foot problem which had seen his foot placed in a protective boot.

Add in a woeful 0-3 record at this Canadian Masters event and you can see why it might pay to oppose Fritz.

Conditions won’t be as hot this week but neither will they be as fast so Murray may well be able to hold his own from the back of the court and turn this into a physical match.

It’s worth paying to see if Fritz is in the right shape to respond.

Round two upsets?

Nick Kyrgios against Daniil Medvedev is the obvious choice here, although how much of an upset that would be is open to question.

The duo – two of the top three in the futures market – will meet in the second round as long as Kyrgios defeats Sebastian Baez in round one.

And with the Australian serving brilliantly right now – he won the title in Washington last week without dropping a set – world number one Medvedev could be in for a tough ride.

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Best futures pick

I’m going to try a long shot this week with American Jenson Brooksby.

He could be the man to take advantage of that Kyrgios-Medvedev draw which will see at least one of them go out early. Both players have the potential for fatigue this week too following title wins at the weekend.

Brooksby is also in the top half and looks a big price at +4000.

Seeds in his path include Roberto Bautista Agut, Casper Ruud and Felix Auger-Aliassime and that shouldn’t strike fear into a player who has great defensive skills.

He loves the hardcourts, as he showed in Atlanta recently when he put some disappointing clay and grass results aside to reach the final.

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