‘Tie-break in the match’ parlay (Sam Querrey v Kevin Anderson, Feliciano Lopez v Jordan Thompson and John Millman v Brandon Nakashima) at +814 at FanDuel
Alexander Bublik to beat Andy Murray at +124 at FanDuel
Juan Ignacio Londero to beat Pablo Andujar at -106 at FanDuel
Taylor Fritz to win the Dallas Open at +440 at FanDuel
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I’ve not found a standout underdog on the first-round coupons this week but I’m still going to chase a big-priced winner at the Dallas Open.
This new ATP Tour event is using the same Laykold court surface that was employed by the owners when they staged their tournament in New York from 2018-2020.
It played quick there and Sunday’s qualifying showed it’s happening again.
Four of the first six qualifying matches featured a tie-break and I reckon it’s worth putting together a parlay regarding sets going the distance.
I’ll start with the obvious match in which ‘a tie-break in the match’ should land – Sam Querrey vs Kevin Anderson.
These are two veterans who have long lived off their big serves.
Twelve of their 16 previous meetings have involved a breaker, including both on indoor hard, one of which was on this surface in New York.
Next up is the Feliciano Lopez v Jordan Thompson match.
Lopez doesn’t have a great deal left apart from his big lefty serve but that should come in handy in these conditions. Thompson is another who is capable of holding his own deal fairly easily. They’ve played twice before, with one featuring a tie-break.
Last but not least, I’ll add in Brandon Nakashima’s clash with John Millman.
The pair have yet to meet but Nakashima’s early-season data very much suggests tie-breaks here. He’s held serve 87% of the time so far this season and broken less than 6%. As a result, six of his 10 sets played in Australia last month went to a tie-break.
Millman is already outside the world’s top 60 for return games won so it’s not hard to see him struggling to break but he was inside the top 40 across 2021 for service games won.
Put the three ‘tie-break in the match’ bets together and you get an +814 parlay.
Check out our guide and find out how do parlays work!
Bublik will arrive in Rotterdam straight off his maiden ATP title in Montpellier and I’m not sure the odds men have the right favorite here.
Slower conditions are expected in the Netherlands than in France but Bublik has a huge first serve which did plenty of damage last week – he served 69 aces – and it will still be able to cut through the court here.
The biggest problem Murray has had since hip surgery is that his return numbers have dipped markedly and those on a good serving day have often kept him pinned down.
He famously broke serve in 136 consecutive matches during his 2015-2017 peak.
However, he failed to break in three consecutive matches at the back end of 2020 and it’s become a fairly common problem, most recently against Aslan Karatsev in the recent Sydney final when Murray went 0 for 5 on breakpoints.
This may well be another tough day on that front and as long as Bublik hasn’t celebrated too hard, he looks worth backing at +124.
The layers appear to be paying too much attention to the fact that Andujar thrashed Londero for the lost of just three games here last year.
That match was part of a huge funk for the Argentine as he failed to win a match at tour-level in 2021.
However, after a couple of months away from competitive tennis, Londero returned in impressive fashion in Cordoba last week, reaching the semi-finals.
He produced some good numbers on serve and while the altitude is gone this week, Londero should still take renewed confidence into this match.
Andujar did beat Dominic Thiem and Roger Federer on clay last season but both stars were a long way from their best at the time and in the second half of the campaign wins were few and far between.
The Spaniard arrives here off a third-round showing at the Australian Open, although beating Damir Dzumhur and Alex Molcan is hardly form to worry about.
The fact Londero is already settled in on the claycourts is good thing and his much-improved form suggests he’ll win what the odds suggest is a 50-50 contest.
The top seeds get byes in Dallas and Buenos Aires this week, so who could be vulnerable in their opener?
Well, in Dallas, John Isner, who has never won an ATP title indoors, probably won’t want to face former Davis Cup team-mate Sam Querrey.
Querrey leads their head-to-head 5-4 and while his best days are now behind him, he’s another capable of fending off opponents with his serve, particularly in quick conditions. As an aside, eight of those nine matches have featured a tie-break.
In Buenos Aires, Alejandro Tabilo would be an awkward early test for Fabio Fognini after his breakout run in Cordoba last week, while rising star Sebastian Baez looks more than capable of testing third seed Lorenzo Sonego should they meet.
With his run to the fourth round of the Australian Open, Taylor Fritz has already backed up an impressive second half of 2021.
And this week looks a good opportunity for him to add a second ATP title to his collection at the Dallas Open.
The Californian’s big serve worked well in Melbourne where he pushed Stefanos Tsitsipas to a final set, but there was much more to his game than that.
He’s now a top-20 player and has a decent-looking draw here – Jack Sock/Oscar Otte, Marcos Giron, Jenson Brooksby and Reilly Opelka will be his route to the title if the seedings play out.
Fritz is at +440 and looks a worthy favorite in Texas.
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|ATP Rotterdam, Dallas & Buenos Aires Information|
|What||ATP ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament; ATP Dallas Open; ATP Argentina Open|
|Location||Rotterdam, Netherlands; Dallas, TX, USA; Buenos Aires, Argentina|
|Time||Monday, February 7 to Sunday, February 13|
|How to Watch||Tennis Channel|
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Andy is a sports journalist of more than 20 years’ experience and is a former betting editor of the UK-based website, Sporting Life. He has specialized in tennis for many years, previewing hundreds of ATP Tour events and reporting from tournaments such as the ATP Finals and Davis Cup final. Andy has also covered numerous other sports, with a particular interest in soccer and cricket.More info on Andy Schooler
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