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UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento - Odds, Predictions & Picks

Written by: Ryan Bristlon
Published May 10, 2024
10 min read
  • Derrick Lewis looks to get back into the top-ten heavyweight rankings

  • Rodgrigo Nascimento looks to crack the heavyweight top-ten for the first time

  • Hometown fighter Joaquin Buckley gets a co-main event bout 

UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento

The odds for this match are provided by the DraftKings Sportsbook. Click the odds in the table below to place your bets and get $200 in Bonus Bets when wagering just $5 at DraftKings.

Derrick Lewis-155
Rodrigo Nascimento+130
Joaquin Buckley-135
Nursulton Ruziboev+114
Alonzo Menifield+220
Carlos Ulberg-270
Carlos Diego Ferriera+310
Mateusz Rebecki-395
Alex Caceres+164
Sean Woodson-198
Waldo Cortes-Acosta+170
Robelis Despaigne-205
UFC Lewis vs Nascimento Predictions

UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento - Picks & Predictions

Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento - Heavyweight Division

Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev - Welterweight Division

Alonzo Menifield vs. Carlos Ulberg - Light Heavyweight Division

Carlos Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Rebecki - Lightweight Division

Alex Caceres vs. Sean Woodson - Featherweight Division

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Robelis Despaigne - Heavyweight Division

Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento - Heavyweight Division

Derrick Lewis TALE OF THE TAPE Rodrigo Nascimento
39 Age 31
6 ft 3 in Height 6 ft 3 in
79 in Reach 80 in
27-12, 1 no-contest Record 11-1, 1 no-contest

Derrick Lewis aka The Black Beast returns to action this Saturday in the main event where he will take on the number-15 ranked rising contender Rodrigo Nascimento.

To say Lewis, a former UFC heavyweight title challenger, has struggled in recent years is putting things rather mildly. The former top-five heavyweight has just one win in his last five appearances and is coming off a recent loss at the hands of Jailton Almeida.

Nascimento has won his last three fights in a row - all coming via decision. He has four wins under the UFC banner and just a single loss on his record.

Despite his shortcomings in recent years, Derrick Lewis was the first to go the distance with Almeida and is a much more experienced fighter. Despite his one-inch disadvantage in reach, the Black Beast will still enter the main event this Saturday as a -155 favorite.

To find out how to place your bets for this heavyweight main event, check out our ultimate UFC betting guide to get started.

Bet on Derrick Lewis (-155) at DraftKings CTA icon

Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev - Welterweight Division

Joaquin Buckley TALE OF THE TAPE Nursulton Ruziboev
30 Age 30
5 ft 8 in Height 6 ft 5 in
76 in Reach 76 in
18-6 Record 34-8-2, 2 no-contests

Joaquin Buckley asked the UFC for a fight in his hometown and they gave it to him. But it will not be easy.

Buckley - currently on a three-fight winning streak - drew the name of Nursulton Ruziboev; a fighter who has won ten in a row (two in the UFC) and a fighter who will stand nine inches taller.

However, despite the gap in height, both fighters will share an equal 76-inch reach.

Nursulton, a +114 underdog, is coming off a first-round TKO win over Sedriques Dumas. Buckley, the -135 favorite in this bout, is coming off an impressive second-round TKO win over Vicente Luque.

Bet on Nursulton Ruziboev (+114) at DraftKings CTA icon

Alonzo Menifield vs. Carlos Ulberg - Light Heavyweight Division

Alonzo Menifield TALE OF THE TAPE Carlos Ulberg
36 Age 33
6 ft Height 6 ft 4 in
76 in Reach 77 in
15-3-1 Record 9-1

4-0-1 in his last five fights, Alonzo Menifiled is coming off of a unanimous decision win over Dustin Jacoby that took place last December at UFC 296. Prior to that win, he had submitted Jimmy Crute in the second round of their UFC 290 bout.

Carlos Ulberg, a student of the well-renowned City Kickboxing gym in New Zealand, most recently won his fifth fight in a row: a third-round submission over Jung Da-Un. His last four wins were stoppages. 

Ulberg will stand four inches taller but will only have a narrow, one-inch reach advantage over Menifield. 

Despite more experience in the octagon, Menifield is listed as a +220 underdog.

Bet on Carlos Ulberg (-270) at DraftKings CTA icon

Carlos Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Rebecki - Lightweight Division

Carlos Diego Ferreira TALE OF THE TAPE Mateusz Rebecki
39 Age 31
5 ft 9 in Height 5 ft 7 in
74 in Reach 66 in
18-5 Record 19-1

Despite his third-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-jitsu, Carlos Diego Ferreira has struggled in the octagon as of late - going just 1-3 in his last four fights. However, he is coming off of a significant second-round knockout win over Michael Johnson that took place last May.

Mateusz Rebecki has won 16 fights in a row, including three wins in the UFC. He most recently defeated Roosevelt Roberts via first-round armbar submission at UFC 295. 

Ferreira will be the taller of the two fighters and will also boast a significant eight-inch reach advantage. However, Rebecki is still listed as the -395 favorite to win; the largest betting favorite on the entire main card.

Bet on Mateusz Rebecki (-395) at DraftKings CTA icon

Alex Caceres vs. Sean Woodson - Featherweight Division

Alex Caceres TALE OF THE TAPE Sean Woodson
35 Age 31
5 ft 9 in Height 6 ft 2 in
73.5 in Reach 78 in
21-14, 1 no-contest Record 11-1-1

Southpaw striker and UFC veteran Alex Caceres has had a bit of a career resurgence as of late. Despite losing to Giga Chikadze in his most recent bout, Caceres has quietly gone 7-2 over his last nine fights.

This Saturday he will take on Sean Woodson, a fighter who is 4-0-1 in his last five appearances. He most recently defeated Charles Jourdain by split decision at UFC 297.

A -198 favorite, Woodson will stand five inches taller and have a 4.5-inch reach advantage over Caceres.

Bet on Alex Caceeres (+164) at DraftKings CTA icon

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Robelis Despaigne - Heavyweight Division

Waldo Cortes-Acosta TALE OF THE TAPE Robelis Despaigne
32 Age 35
6 ft 4 in Height 6 ft 7 in
78 in Reach 87 in
11-1 Record 5-0

Now 4-1 in the UFC, Waldo Cortes-Acosta currently finds himself on a two-fight winning streak that most recently saw him defeat former heavyweight champion and UFC legend Andrei Arlovski.

This weekend he will kick off the main card by taking on the undefeated taekwondo black belt Robelis Despaigne. Now 5-0, Despaigne made his UFC debut at UFC 299 back in March, earning a first-round TKO win over Josh Parisian.

Despite more experience in the UFC and mixed martial arts as a whole, Cortes-Acosta will have his hands full as Despaigne will stand three inches taller and have a NINE-INCH reach advantage!

Despaigne will enter the octagon on Saturday as the -205 favorite.

Bet on Robelis Despaigne (-205) at DraftKings CTA icon

How to Watch UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento

  • Location: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, Missouri

  • When: Saturday, May 11

  • Time: 7 PM EST

  • How: ESPN, ESPN+, Sportsnet+


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Ryan Bristlon

433 Articles

Ryan Bristlon is a Canadian writer currently residing in Hamilton, Ontario. He studied print and broadcast journalism at Humber College and has been a lifelong fan of the sport of hockey and the NHL.

Email: [email protected]

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