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UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez - Odds, Predictions & Picks

Written by: Ryan Bristlon
Published April 26, 2024
10 min read
  • Alex Perez replaces injured Manel Kape in the main event bout versus Nicolau

  • “Superman” Spann faces Bogdan Guskov in the co-main event

  • Top-15 flyweights go toe-to-toe on the main card

UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez

The odds for this match are provided by the DraftKings Sportsbook. Click the odds in the table below to place your bets and get $200 in Bonus Bets when wagering just $5 at DraftKings.

Fighter Odds
Matheus Nicolau -192
Alex Perez +160
Fighter Odds
Ryan Spann -198
Bogdan Guskov +164
Fighter Odds
Ariane Lipski +124
Karine Silva -148
Fighter Odds
Austen Lane +210
Jhonata Diniz -258
Fighter Odds
Jonathan Pearce -170
David Onama +142
Fighter Odds
Tim Means +250
Uros Medic -310

For more UFC betting opportunities, take a look at our list of the best UFC betting sites.

UFC Fight Night Nicolau vs Perez Predictions

UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez - Picks & Predictions

Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez - Flyweight division

Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov - Light heavyweight division

Ariane Lipski vs. Karine Silva - Women’s flyweight division

Austen Lane vs. Jhonata Diniz - Heavyweight division

Jonathan Pearce vs. David Onama - Featherweight division

Tim Means vs. Uros Medic - Welterweight division

Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez - Flyweight Division

Matheus Nicolau TALE OF THE TAPE Alex Perez
31 Age 32
5 ft 6 in Height 5 ft 6 in
66 in Reach 65 in
19-3-1 Record 24-8

Originally slated to rematch with Manel Kape, number-five-ranked flyweight Matheus Nicolau now finds himself coming up against the number-eight-ranked Alex Perez - who steps in for the injured Kape.

Nicolau recently enjoyed a six-fight winning streak but saw that come to an end when he lost his most recent bout via first-round KO at the hands of Brandon Royval.

Perez is looking to snap his three-fight skid this weekend. He dropped back-to-back submission losses to Deiveson Figueiredo and Alexandre Pantoja and lost via unanimous decision in his most recent bout against the undefeated Muhammad Mokaev.

Nicolau, a -192 favorite to win at DraftKings, will have a one-inch reach advantage in this bout. Everything else between these men is nearly identical statistically.

To find out how to place your bets for this top-10 flyweight main event, check out our ultimate UFC betting guide to get started.

Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov - Light Heavyweight Division

Ryan Spann TALE OF THE TAPE Bogdan Guskov
32 Age 31
6 ft 5 in Height 6 ft 3 in
81.5 Reach 76 in
21-9 Record 15-3

In what will be just his second UFC fight, the promotion didn’t make things easy for Bogdan Guskov as they have tagged him to fight the taller, longer Ryan Spann.

Guskov is 1-1 with the promotion and is coming off of a TKO win over Zac Pauga.

Spann, an 11-fight UFC veteran, has actually dropped his last two fights in a row. He is coming off of a very close split-decision loss against Anthony Smith.

With that said, with a two-inch advantage in height and a 5.5-inch reach advantage, Spann will enter this co-main event as the -198 favorite.

Ariane Lipski vs Karine Silva - Women’s Flyweight Division

Ariane Lipski TALE OF THE TAPE Karine Silva
30 Age 30
5 ft 6 in Height 5 ft 5 in
67 in Reach 67 in
17-8 Record 17-4

The number-12-ranked Ariane Lipski takes on the number-13-ranked Karine Silva in a bout that could see one of these two fighters crack the division’s top-10. Check out our UFC Rankings Guide for more info.

Lipski has now won three in a row, having most recently defeated Casey O’Neill via second-round submission at UFC 196 last December.

Not to be outdone, Silva has won her last eight fights and has won her last three in a row via first-round submission. 

Lipski will stand one inch taller but is considered the +124 underdog in this matchup.

Austen Lane vs. Jhonata Diniz - Heavyweight Division

Austen Lane TALE OF THE TAPE Jhonata Diniz
36 Age 32
6 ft 6 in Height 6 ft 3 in
80 in Reach 79.5 in
12-4, 1 no-contest Record 6-0

Former NFL player-turned-UFC heavyweight Austen Lane is still looking for his first promotional win after earning a first-round TKO win on the Contender Series.

Lane debuted against Justin Tafa last June but the bout was deemed a no-contest after an accidental eye poke. He then faced off against Tafa in a rematch - a fight he lost via first-round knockout.

Also looking for his first UFC win is Jhonata Diniz. The undefeated former kickboxer is coming off a TKO win on the Contender Series and will be making his promotional debut this weekend.

Lane will stand three inches taller and will have a half-inch advantage in reach. However, the 6-0 Diniz will enter the octagon at -258 via DraftKings.

Jonathan Pearce vs. David Onama - Featherweight Division

Jonathan Pearce TALE OF THE TAPE David Onama
31 Age 29
5 ft 11 in Height 5 ft 11 in
71 in Reach 74 in
14-5 Record 11-2

Jonathan Pearce looks to get back into the win column this weekend after having his five-fight winning streak snapped by Joanderson Brito last November. 

He takes on David Onama, a fighter with a 3-2 UFC record who is coming off of a huge second-round KO of Gabriel Santos that took place last June.

This will be the first fight of 2024 for both fighters.

Standing equal in height, the +142 underdog Onama will look to make the most of his three-inch reach advantage. 

Tim Means vs. Uros Medic - Welterweight Division

Tim Means TALE OF THE TAPE Uros Medic
40 Age 30
6 ft 2 in Height 6 ft 1 in
75 in Reach 71 in
33-15-1, 1 no-contest Record 9-2

A member of the UFC roster since 2014, Tim Means recently snapped a three-fight losing skid with his third-round TKO win over Andre Fialho last December in what was deemed the fight of the night.

He opens the main card against Uros Medic, a fighter who has a UFC record of 3-2 and who recently had his two-fight win streak broken via a submission loss at the hands of Myktybek Orolbai last November.

Despite Means’ height and reach advantages, Uros Medic will enter the octagon this Saturday as the biggest betting favorite on the main card at -310 via DraftKings.

How to Watch UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez

  • Location: UFC Apex, Enterprise, Nevada

  • When: Saturday, April 27

  • Time: 7 PM EST

  • How: ESPN, ESPN+, Sportsnet+


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Ryan Bristlon

433 Articles

Ryan Bristlon is a Canadian writer currently residing in Hamilton, Ontario. He studied print and broadcast journalism at Humber College and has been a lifelong fan of the sport of hockey and the NHL.

Email: [email protected]

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