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UFC Fight Night: Pantoja vs. Erceg - Odds, Predictions & Picks

Written by: Ryan Bristlon
Published May 3, 2024
10 min read
  • The UFC returns to Brazil where a hometown fighter will defend his title

  • Pantajoa defends his Flyweight title for the first time against Australian Steve Erceg

  • “King of Rio” Jose Aldo returns from retirement to fight for the first time since 2022

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg

The odds for this match are provided by the DraftKings Sportsbook. Click the odds in the table below to place your bets and get $200 in Bonus Bets when wagering just $5 at DraftKings.

Fighter Odds
(C) Alexandre Pantoja -192
Steve Erceg +160
Fighter Odds
Jonathan Martinez -155
Jose Aldo +130
Fighter Odds
Anthony Smith +410
Vitor Petrino -550
Fighter Odds
Michel Pereira -675
Ihor Potieria +490
Fighter Odds
Paul Craig +425
Caio Borralho -575
UFC Fight Night Pantoja vs Erceg Predictions

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg - Picks & Predictions

(C) Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg - Flyweight Championship

Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo - Bantamweight Division

Anthony Smith vs. Vitor Petrino - Light Heavyweight Division

Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Potieria - Middleweight Division

Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho - Middleweight Division

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg - Flyweight Championship

Alexandre Pantoja TALE OF THE TAPE Steve Erceg
34 Age 28
5 ft 5 in Height 5 ft 8 in
68 in Reach 68 in
27-5 Record 12-1

Undefeated in the UFC, number-ten-ranked flyweight Steve Erceg will ride an 11-fight winning streak heading into his first title fight and is coming off of a second-round knockout over Matt Schnell that took place in March.

He challenges the champion, Alexandre Pantoja. Pantoja won the title from Brandon Moreno at UFC 290 and has since defended it once; against Brandon Royval at UFC 296.

A UFC roster member since 2017, Pantoja has a promotional record of 11-3 and has won his last five fights in a row.

Both fighters will have an equal reach but it is the challenger Erceg who will stand two-inches taller than the champion.

The champion will come in as the slight betting favorite at -192 compared to Erceg’s +160 at DraftKings Sportsbook, but this should be the most tightly contested fight on the main card.

To find out how to place your bets for this top-10 flyweight main event, check out our ultimate UFC betting guide to get started.

Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo - Bantamweight Division

Jonathan Martinez TALE OF THE TAPE Jose Aldo
30 Age 37
5 ft 7 in Height 5 ft 7 in
70 in Reach 70 in
19-4 Record 31-8

In one of the shorter retirements in UFC history, Jose Aldo returns to action this Saturday to fight the last fight on his UFC contract after having originally announced his retirement in 2022.

The former featherweight champion and BJJ black belt will take on number-12 ranked bantamweight Jonathan Martinez - a BJJ blue belt currently on a six-fight winning streak.

Martinez is coming off a leg kick TKO win over Adrian Yanez. It was his second leg kick TKO win in his last three fights. Quite a coincidence, as Jose Aldo was considered one of the best leg kickers in MMA history.

Martinez is the favorite at -155 but at +130, oddsmakers are definitely not ruling out Aldo’s chances despite his time away.

Anthony Smith vs. Vitor Petrino - Light Heavyweight Division

Anthony Smith TALE OF THE TAPE Vitor Petrino
35 Age 26
6 ft 4 in Height 6 ft 2 in
76 in Reach 77.5 in
37-19 Record 11-0

From this point on, starting with BJJ black belt Anthony Smith, the odds discrepancies between UFC 301 fighters gets a little extreme. 

Former title challenger Anthony Smith - 1-3 in his last four fights - will enter the octagon this weekend as a +410 underdog. He is coming off of a TKO loss against Khalil Rountree.

His opponent, Vitor Petrino, is still undefeated in his professional career and will be considered the -550 favorite. He most recently earned a unanimous decision win over Tyson Pedro in March.

Smith will stand two inches taller but Petrino will have a 1.5-inch reach advantage.

Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Potieria - Middleweight Division

Michel Pereira TALE OF THE TAPE Ihor Potieria
30 Age 27
6 ft 1 in Height 6 ft 3 in
73 in Reach 75 in
30-11, 2 no-contests Record 21-5

Another Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt (we are in Brazil after all!), the always flashy and entertaining Michel Pereira will compete in his third UFC middleweight contest after years spent as a welterweight and will take on Ukraine’s Ihor Potieria.

Despite his weight struggles, Pereira has still managed to win his last seven fights in a row, having most recently submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk at UFC 299.

Potieria is also coming off of a win - a decision over Robert Bryczek - but overall is just 2-3 since signing with the UFC in 2022.

Despite being at physical height and reach disadvantages, the more experienced Pereira is listed as the largest betting favorite on the main card at -675 via DraftKings.

Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho - Middleweight Division

Paul Craig TALE OF THE TAPE Caio Borralho
36 Age 31
6 ft 4 in Height 6 ft 2 in
76 in Reach 75 in
17-7-1 Record 15-1, 1 no-contest

The main card of UFC 301 will kick-off with a battle of the BJJ black belts as Scotland’s Paul Craig - who has won 13 of his 17 wins via submission, takes on Brazil’s-own Caio Borralho.

Craig, a former light heavyweight, moved down to middleweight in 2023 and has fought twice in the weight class, going 1-1. He is coming off of a submission loss at the hands of Brendan Allen.

Borralho, undefeated since 2015, has won all five of his UFC fights but has only one submission win in the promotion. He most recently defeated Abus Magomedov by unanimous decision last November.

Like a majority of the fights on this card, there is quite a discrepancy when it comes to betting odds. Borralho is the -575 favorite over Craig, who is listed as a +425 underdog.

How to Watch UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg

  • Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

  • When: Saturday, May 4

  • Time: 10 PM EST

  • How: UFC Fight Pass, PPV, ESPN+


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Ryan Bristlon

433 Articles

Ryan Bristlon is a Canadian writer currently residing in Hamilton, Ontario. He studied print and broadcast journalism at Humber College and has been a lifelong fan of the sport of hockey and the NHL.

Email: [email protected]

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