The Indiana Fever were brought back down to Earth Friday night with a 99-88 loss at the hands of the Minnesota Lynx. After taking Saturday off, it is time to get back on the right side of the scoreboard with a win over the Atlanta Dream at home.
Indiana opened as a 6.5-point home favorite and can still be found at -6.5 at most sportsbooks. Let’s take a look at the whole betting line for Dream vs. Fever and our preview and prediction for the game.
Indiana went into Friday’s contest vs. the Lynx, riding the emotional high that comes with a five-game winning streak. The last time they had lost at home was back on July 10. But there is a reason why the Minnesota Lynx is one of two teams in the league with single-digit losses—they’re pretty good.
Atlanta doesn’t quite measure up to the Lynx, but they are a solid team. They’ve won two of their last three and are coming off a 107-96 overtime victory in which Rhyne Howard put up 30+ points for the second game in a row.
Let’s take a look at the betting odds for the Dream vs. Fever, with odds via FanDuel:
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Atlanta Dream | -2.5 (-106) | -148 | O 169.5 (-110) |
Indiana Fever | +2.5 (-114) | +120 | U 169.5 (-110) |
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Indiana has dominated the season series, with Atlanta winning all three previous matchups this year. However, Atlanta has a slight lead in the all-time series with 38 wins to 34 for the Fever. The team is riding a five-game win streak over the Dream; the Fever’s last loss to Atlanta came during the 2023 season (Sept 6, 82-73).
The Fever won six of the last ten. The OVER won in six of the last ten.
12-22 SU, 19-21 ATS
OVER: 17-23
Away teams are 92-115 SU and 112-92-3 ATS
Atlanta came out of the break red hot, winning their first three games. But then things came crashing down as the team went on to lose its next four games. A game against the LA Sparks allowed them to get back on the right side of the scoreboard with a win.
Then, they lost to Phoenix for the second time in less than two weeks.
In their last game on Friday, they took a 14-point lead into the half but saw it slowly slip away as Dallas tied the game up and sent it to overtime. The Dream took over in the OT period to win 107-96.
It was a rare offensive explosion for the Dream, their first 100+ point night of the season. They had not had one since Aug. 25 of last season (112-100 loss to Vegas). Of course, it becomes a little easier to drop 100 points when you play the worst defense in the league (last since the break, 95 points per game allowed.
Indiana’s is not much better. The Fever defense has given up 85.8 points per game since the break, but Indiana has had the No. 1 offense in the league in that time frame (91 ppg).
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18-17 SU, 20-15 ATS
OVER: 23-12
Home Teams are 115-92 SU and 92-112-3 ATS
A win over Minnesota the other night would have been nice, but the loss could be good for the team in the long run. A loss in the postseason can mean your season is over. But if you drop one in the regular season, you have time to correct any mistakes before it’s too late.
However, the Fever didn’t necessarily have a bad game against the Lynx. Caitlin Clark led the way with 25 points, hitting five of ten three-pointers. It was the third time in four games where she made five three-pointers. Kelsey Mitchell chipped on 23, and Aaliyah Boston knocked down 20.
But then the same ole’ problem kicked back up—they are a dreadful defensive team. Minnesota hit 45.2% of their shots from the field and 40.6% from three-point range. It is pretty hard to beat a team that’s hitting 40+% of their three-pointers.
Atlanta ranks ninth in three-point shooting percentage since the break at 32/9%.
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Yes, the Fever struggles on the defensive end of the court, but that does not mean the team with the worst defense in the league (76.7 ppg allowed) will suddenly become a scoring machine. It certainly didn’t help the other three teams these teams played.
We’re expecting the Dream to put up a fight, but the Fever will have the game well in hand before the fourth quarter.
Our Pick: Fever -6.5
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Clark did not get off to a strong start this season, but the young rookie appears to have figured out how to get the job done. Since the break, she’s averaged 24.6 points per game. She’s had two 19-point games but has otherwise scored 20+ points a game. However, one of the 19-point nights was vs. the Dream in Atlanta.
With how the last couple of weeks have gone for Clark, there is no reason to doubt her. She’ll take her shots, and as long as she doesn’t have an off night, she’ll go over 19.5 points again. But will she clear 25+ points?
It is tempting to say absolutely, but that may be our inner fanboy talking. Clark is undoubtedly capable, but the Dream have been one of the better defensive teams in the league (78 points per game allowed since the break, third best). Our best advice for this market is not to say yea or nay but to proceed with caution.
It could go either way.
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She is averaging ten attempts with four made threes per game since the break. Clark has hit five in three of her last four games and 4+ in six of her last nine. Atlanta has been stingy on the perimeter (31.5% allowed since the break). But we are still leaning toward the OVER.
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After dishing out 10+ dimes in six of seven games in July, Clark has not been nearly as productive in August. She averaged 8.5 per game but had under 9.5 in four of six games. However, she has had 8, 10, and 12 in her last three games (in September).
The plus-money odds for the OVER are really tempting, but the Dream has been stingy, allowing just 18.2 per game (good for second-best since break). We’re reluctantly leaning toward the UNDER.
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