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Natus Vincere and Brame are at that stage of the Dota2 Champions League where a minor slip-up could prove costly. Wednesday’s winner will vault into the Upper Bracket Round 2, from where the Grand Final is just two good games away. As teams, however, they will perhaps only be thinking about the present and how they can get the better of the other.
Natus Vincere has to do all the running. They are not at their best rhythm and are up against an aggressive outfit that scores better on a number of counts, not least the win percentage of 57.65 across 85 maps in the latest patch of Dota2.
Natus Vincere, in comparison, has played a sixth of those games, tallying a win percentage of just 42.86. It’s safe to say they have plenty of ground to cover. It must be noted, however, that Natus Vincere have played against higher-profile opponents, while much of Brame’s success has come against teams not quite at the same level.
All said Natus Vincere will be looking to channel their relative inexperience in a positive way. It can be hard to spot definitive trends and numbers can be hard to scrounge sometimes when you’ve played as few matches as them. What, possibly, can the opponent plot and plan for? It promises to be an exciting battle that could swing either way, even if Natus Vincere starts as a favorite.
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Natus Vincere may not have momentum at Dota2, but their history has been dotted with triumphs in Counter-Strike they’d want to replicate. They are best known for their results from The International 2011 to The International 2014, during which they won 20 Tier 1 event and made it to the finals of three consecutive internationals.
Here and now, they’ve had more deaths (24.57) than kills (23.79) in the latest patch. However, a high GPM of 2134 means not everything is doom and gloom. It’s an indication of potential and it is a matter of being able to translate that into more assists per map, and the by-product of these could mean more kills and victories.
Brame’s assist rate is a full two units (57.98) better than Natus Vincere, which means they’re able to penetrate the field that much better, resulting in a slightly better kill rate. They close out wins by averaging 35.18 minutes per map, which is quite an impressive tally. This is a whole three minutes faster than Natus Vincere.
In W1sh, Brame has a striker capable of landing the big kills. His kill rate of 8.19 over 191 maps is the best among the field. He has two allies in SsaSpartan and CTOMAHEH1, who are big on assists, having a rate of 13.43 and 12.77 respectively, which is quite staggering. How Natus Vincere keeps these three at bay could well form the crux of the contest. Can they breach the wall?
Natus Vincere will need more from V-Tune. With a kill rate of 8.10. there’s clearly a potential to do so. Now to translate potential into performances against some staunch defense.
The one area where they score significantly better than Brame is their Last Hits – which is a technique where a player enters the enemy lane to effect a kill. Natus Vincere’s rate of 1024 Last Hits is marginally higher than Brame’s 997. It is the sum of small significant wins like these they’d want to conjure together to effect a victory.
Entity to win
Meanwhile, Entity up against CIS Rejects is a clash of equals, a contest that only the brave can predict outright. Entity are relatively inexperienced, but have notched up 13 wins out of their last 18 maps; CIS Rejects have won 23 out of their 29 maps. So in terms of win percentage, there’s little to choose between the sides.
The entity has proven to be clinically efficient so far, affecting 28.28 kills for 20.78 deaths per map. Add their excellent assist rate of 61.89 and it’s a fine cocktail that more often than not is a recipe for success. So far at least, this strategy hasn’t been challenged. Can CIS Rejects storm the field and throw a spanner in their works?
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A sub-30-minute win rate per map is mighty impressive, whichever way you look at it. This can only be possible if your defense is as solid as the attack. At 29.24 minutes per win on an average per map, Entity are miles ahead of CIS Rejects, who take close to 10 minutes more on average.
This can possibly be down to two things: a strategy that borders on a safety-first approach. While such a plan isn’t often a bad thing, it can be tested against aggressive sides.
Both have an excellent kill rate of over 8.33 and 9.28 respectively, but their sub-3 death rate points to the precision that can be hard to breach. Add to this Fishman’s assist of 15.50 – these are ingredients for storming ahead.
The numbers point to it being a one-horse race. But CIS Rejects have thrived so far with their strategy that eliminates risk and focuses on tight defense. So it’s a contest between two confident sides that have contrasting approaches to the field, with neither giving an inch when it comes to baking their plans. It’ll be compelling to watch.
|Dota2 Champions League Infromation|
|Teams||Natus Vincere vs Brame, Entity vs CIS Rejects|
|Location||Luxembourg server, online event|
|Time||Wednesday, January 5 at 10.15 AM EST onwards|
|How to watch||Epic Esports Events Twitch|
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