The AT&T Byron Nelson Predictions, Betting Odds, Picks

• The tournament is staged at TPC Craig Ranch for a second consecutive year
• Korea’s Kyoung-Hoon Lee defends the title
• World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the tournament favorite

The AT&T Byron Nelson Odds

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The AT&T Byron Nelson Picks

Talor Gooch is the outright pick at +4500 win and +400 top 10 with DraftKings

Tom Hoge win at +1100 and top 20 at +350 with DraftKings 

Sam Burns to beat Jordan Spieth at -125 with BetMGM

This week’s tournament was first played in 1944 and it has had a remarkably long list of different titles down the years, since 1968, all of those variations have celebrated the very first man to win it – Byron Nelson.

Jack Nicklaus and Tom Watson are among the multiple winners of the tournament, while Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson have also lifted the trophy.

In more recent times the event has become less of a draw for the world’s elite but not this week.

It has been an odd spell for the PGA Tour since the Masters, with the world’s best players taking a lot of time off, aware that from next week the schedule is packed with high-class events right into the last week of August.

Nine of the world’s top 20 ranked players are in Texas this week, led by the #1 and Masters winner Scottie Scheffler.

All of them are aware that they need to sharpen their competitive instincts before next week’s PGA Championship.

The test they face is a Tom Weiskopf design that is long but wide.

It hosted the event for the first time 12 months ago and Korea’s KH Lee won it with a 25-under total that reveals it was something of a birdie-fest.

With the weather set fair, we can expect more of the same this week.

If the players find the fairway – and it’s not difficult – then the Zoysia grass sits the ball up nicely for them to attack the greens.

Gooch Looks a Great Fit

In last year’s event, five of the top six finishers ranked top seven for Strokes Gained Approach and those numbers backed up the stats from the two times TPC Craig Ranch hosted the second tier Korn Ferry Tour.

Those events did take place in 2008 and 2012 and featured only traditional statistical metrics, but both times a good long game mattered: in the first event the top four, and in the second the top eight, all ranked top 20 for Greens in Regulation.

There was also a key trend on the par-3s: the winners, and those golfers who placed, all played the short holes in fine style.

Those two factors lead us to Talor Gooch, who ranks 19th for both SG Approach and Greens in Regulation this season and first for Par-3 Scoring.

He’s been in superb form all season, landing no less than 13 top 30 finishes including a first PGA Tour victory at the RSM Classic.

More recently he contended at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and was T14th at the Masters.

He was a solid enough T39th on course debut last year and can improve on that in his current form.

Take him to win at +4500 with DraftKings and +400 to make the top 10 at the same form.

Hoge Not Done

Let’s stick with this season’s first-time PGA Tour winners in the form of Tom Hoge.

He broke through at the AT&T Pebble Beach and maybe he can complete the AT&T double?!

He has good stats too: He shares top spot with Gooch in Par-3 scoring this season and he is ninth for SG Approach.

He’s never quite fired at a course Tom Weiskopf has re-designed – TPC Scottsdale – but he’s not been far off.

He’s played there five times and, although he has a best of T14th (this year), he has featured in the top 12 in each of his last four starts at some point in the week.

He’s a big price for a man with a win and a second on his CV from this season alone.

Back him at +1100 for the win and +350 for the top 20, again with DraftKings.

Hot Burns Can Win Again

We’re in good form with match-ups currently, with Sergio Garcia’s victory over Troy Merritt being our eighth winning selection in a row – fingers crossed that run continues this week.

We’ll focus on the BetMGM match-bet between Sam Burns and Jordan Spieth.

If you look at their entire careers then it is a dead split at 25 wins apiece.

But Speith held the early advantage, when he was a standout performer on the PGA Tour and Burns was still a rookie.

Since the start of 2020 Burns holds a significant 19-12 advantage.

Moreover, Burns leads 8-2 in the last 10 events the pair have played together.

It’s true that Spieth finished tied ninth at TPC Craig Ranch last year but even then Burns bettered him by finishing second.

It’s a battle of the recent winners because Burns won the Valspar Championship just before the Masters and Spieth the RBC Heritage just after it.

But those long-term and short-term advantages for Burns are persuasive.

Back him to continue his dominance at -125 at BetMGM.

How to Watch The AT&T Byron Nelson