Charles Schwab Challenge Prediction: Finau Ready to Fire

Written by: Dave Tindall
Updated May 22, 2024
7 min read
  • Colonial Country Club has been used on the PGA Tour since 1946  

  • The par 70 has undergone a major redesign ahead of the 2024 event

  • Texas local Scottie Scheffler is the hot betting favorite

Charles Schwab Challenge Odds

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PlayerOdds 
Scottie Scheffler+275
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Collin Morikawa+1200
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Max Homa+1800
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Jordan Spieth+2200
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Tony Finau+2800
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Harris English+3300
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Brian Harman+3500
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Billy Horschel+4000
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Min Woo Lee+4000
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Si Woo Kim+4000
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Charles Schwab Challenge Predictions

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Charles Schwab Challenge Prediction Tony Finau

Charles Schwab Challenge Intro

After two players shot 21-under and 20-under on a 7,600+ course in last week’s PGA Championship at Valhalla, it’s worth noting that the last two winners at shortish Colonial Country Club triumphed with single digits under par.

It reiterates that length isn’t everything when trying to stop the game’s best players taking a course apart.

Colonial is one of the PGA Tour’s classic venues and is the longest running non-major tour event to be held at the same venue.

While the obvious names haven’t always won, check out the list of runners-up from 2017 to 2022 - Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth again and Scottie Scheffler.

Ahead of this year’s event, the course has undergone a $25m redesign from Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner.

The visuals remain broadly the same but there is new bentgrass on the greens, some of which have been majorly modified. Par remains 70.

As usual in Texas, expect wind to be a factor throughout the week.

It’s set to blow at 20mph or more at times over the first three days before calming on Sunday.

Heavy rain on Wednesday could soften the course for round one.

Last 5 Winners of the Charles Schwab Challenge

YearChampion, nationality and winning score
2023Emiliano Grillo (Argentina) -8 Playoff 
2022Sam Burns (United States) -9 Playoff 
2021Jason Kokrak (United States) -14
2020Daniel Berger (United States) -15 Playoff
2019Kevin Na (United States) -13

Course Notes

  • Colonial CC is a par 70 and measures 7,289 yards from the tips

  • It opened in the 1930s and has staged a PGA Tour event every year since 1946

  • The Texas course has been redesigned by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner this year

  • Legend and local resident Ben Hogan won five times at Colonial

  • The greens are bentgrass and the fairways bermuda   

  • Zach Johnson’s total of 259 in 2010 is the 72-hole record

  • Seven players, including Texan Justin Leonard, have the course record of 61

Favorites to Win the Charles Schwab Challenge

Scottie Scheffler (+275) at BetMGM

Texas local Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite to win this week. It makes sense many levels: he’s the World No.1, is a winner on four of his last six starts on the PGA Tour and has a second and a third here in his last two visits. But how do you factor in the aftershock of his arrest at last week’s PGA and the very welcome distraction of becoming a new father? To back someone at that price, you don’t want doubt.

Bet on Scottie Scheffler (+275) at BetMGM   

Collin Morikawa (+1200) at BetMGM

Morikawa did lots of things right at Valhalla, his tied fourth place finish at the PGA backing up a top three in The Masters. But he will still be frustrated by a flat final-round that saw him drop away having started Sunday tied for the lead. Morikawa, who was 4th Tee To Green last week, was runner-up on his Colonial debut in 2020 but has had to settle for 14-40-29 since.      

Bet on Collin Morikawa (+1200) at BetMGM   

Max Homa (+1800) at BetMGM

Homa was a popular pick at Valhalla but never got in a blow and slid rather tamely away to finish tied 35th. He’s had five previous cracks at Colonial, with his best finishes coming in the latest two: 23rd in 2022 and ninth last year.    

Bet on Max Homa (+1800) at BetMGM   

Back Finau for the Win

Tony Finau couldn’t quite sustain his challenge at last week’s PGA Championship after residing in the top 10 after 18, 36 and 54 holes.

But tied 18th was his seventh top 25 of the campaign and this could be a good week to catch him.

Finau owns a second (2019) and a fourth (2022) at the famed Texas layout and has only finished outside the top 25 in one of his last five visits.

That forms part of an excellent record in Texas which shows a win (2022 Houston Open), a second and a fourth in his last five starts there.

Also second in this year’s Houston Open at the end of March, Finau ranked 1st for SG: Approach in last week’s PGA Championship so his irons are very much on point.

Everyone has new putting surfaces to learn this year following the redesign so it’s unlikely this is a week where it’s won on the greens.

Instead, look to what goes on before the greens are reached and, if that’s the case, Finau stands out as a strong bet.

We just missed the jackpot with PGA runner-up Bryson DeChambeau at Valhalla so hopefully Finau can go one better at a similar price and land the +2800 with BetMGM.

Rai to Beat Moore

Last week’s 72-hole match bet landed easily as Justin Thomas (eighth) took down Wyndham Clark (missed cut).

For Colonial, I’m backing Aaron Rai to beat Taylor Moore in a -110 pick ‘em at bet365.

Moore got the better of Rai at last week’s PGA, beating him by five shots, but I’m taking the Englishman to flip that here.

Rai has form of 4-58-7-12 in Texas, the fourth coming at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson earlier this month and the 12th here at Colonial in 2023.

Moore has missed both his Colonial cuts and slammed his trunk early in five of six starts in Texas since 2021.

Hodges to Land Top 10

Lee Hodges rode some stellar iron play to finish tied 12th at the PGA Championship.

A winner at the 3M Open by a massive seven shots last year, he has course form here of 35-29 and looks a value bet to improve on that and finish in the top 10 at +700 with DraftKings Sportsbook.

How to Watch the Charles Schwab Challenge

  • Tournament: Charles Schwab Challenge

  • Location: Colonial CC, Fort Worth, TX

  • Date: Thursday, May 23 - Sunday, May 26

  • How to watch: Thursday-Friday 4 p.m.-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), Saturday-Sunday 1 p.m.-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3 p.m.-6 p.m. (CBS). And all four days on Sky Sports.

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Dave Tindall

Golf Betting Analyst

Expertise:
Golf
Betting Picks
Dave Tindall is former golf editor at SkySports.com and Golf365.com and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.
Nationality: British
Education: Bachelor of Arts (Psychology and Media)
Favourite Sportsbook: bet365 Sportsbook
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Experience:
25 years
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