Portugal Masters Predictions, Betting Odds, Picks

  • After a week off, the European Tour moves from Spain to Portugal
  • The tournament takes place at Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course in Vilamoura
  • George Coetzee returns to defend the title he won in 2020

Portugal Masters Odds

The odds for this tournament are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Click on the odds below to head to DraftKings and place a bet.

Player Odds
Matt Wallace +1600
Laurie Canter +2000
Thomas Pieters +2500
Andrew Johnston +2500
Min Woo Lee +2500
Richard Bland +2800
Robert MacIntyre +2800
Sam Horsfield +3000
George Coetzee +3500
Fabrizio Zanotti +4000
John Catlin +4000

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Portugal Masters Predictions

Portugal Masters Picks

Mikko Korhonen each-way (1/4 1-2-3-4-5) at +5000 with bet365

Jorge Campillo to outscore Wil Besseling in a 72-hole match at +100 with bet365

George Coetzee to finish in the top 10 at +350 with DraftKings Sportsbook

Portugal Masters Predictions

After a dark week following a trio of events in Spain, the European Tour makes the short hop to Vilamoura for the Portugal Masters.

The area is well known to tourists and Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course is set up to fuel that market.

In other words, this is one of the easier tests the European Tour players will see.

It’s reflected in the scores with the winning totals between 2015 and 2018 reading -23, -23, -20, and -22.

That said, winds can make it play a little tougher and in 2019 Steven Brown won with 17-under while last year George Coetzee’s 16-under was enough to secure the silverware.

Dom Pedro is an Arnold Palmer design with a par of 71. The three par 5s come at 5, 12, and 17 while overall par measures a fraction under 7,200 yards so it’s short by modern standards.

English players have won six of the 14 editions while Irishman Padraig Harrington lifted the trophy in 2016.

The other big factor this week is incentives.

There are just three events left on this season’s European Tour schedule and players are either scrapping to retain their cards or book a place in the top 50 on the Race to Dubai which will punch their tickets to the season-ending DP World Tour Championship.

In 2017, Jamie Donaldson, Wade Ormsby, and Daniel Brooks all played the final event needing a top-five to secure their playing privileges. Remarkably, all three got the job done.

Finally, the weather forecast shows sunshine and temperatures around 70 degrees. Wind speeds are around 10-12mph but it could gust harder.

Korkohen Carries Plenty of Appeal

Mikko Korhonen is one of those on the outside looking in: he’s 54th on the Race to Dubai so needs to nudge up several spots to secure his place in the top 50.

The good news is that Dom Pedro looks at an ideal stage on which the Finn can make a move.

He’s a perfect 5-for-5 in this event (2015-2019) and in that run, he can boast a third, a ninth, and a 12th.

Looking at his round scores, he’s fired three 64s, two 65s, and two 66s so the two-time European Tour winner has repeatedly shown an ability to go low on this par 71.

That course form and Race to Dubai incentive can be backed up further with some notable results over the last few months.

Clearly, Korhonen must have been doing something right to be just outside the top 50 and, from betting on the outright market point of view, his results are ideal: a combination of feast and famine rather than a succession of steady top 15s.

In his last 12 starts, Korhonen has bagged a pair of top threes and two further top eights.

The first of those third places came in the British Masters where he finished at -12 while the second place was posted in the Cazoo Open at Celtic Manor thanks to laps of 66-70-67-66 which put him at -15.

Two starts ago, the 41-year-old was tied eighth at the Italian Open having been second at halfway and fourth with around to play.

Strokes Gained: Putting is definitely a stat to look at on this course and Korhonen ranks a healthy 35th for SGP this season.

There are lots to like and that includes his price of +5000 with bet365. Back him each way (1/4 1-2-3-4-5).

Campillo Can Outscore Besseling

For this week’s match bet, I want to focus on putting.

Over the last eight weeks, only five other players have better Strokes Gained: Putting figures than Jorge Campillo.

The Spaniard has finished in the top eight in that category in three of his last four events and that prowess on the greens helped him finish runner-up in the Mallorca Golf Open on his latest start.

Earlier in October, he was also tied 17th in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, another coastal event.

Campillo likes this course too. He was eighth last year, sixth in 2015, and hasn’t missed the cut in his last seven visits.

His rival in a 72-hole match at bet365 is Wil Besseling.

The Dutchman was a useful tied 14th here last year on his first visit but his SGP numbers are negative over the last eight weeks.

That’s led to two missed cuts in his last four starts.

He did putt well when sixth at the Open de Espana but that remains something of an anomaly and, overall, Campillo has the more robust numbers.

Back Campillo to win the day.

Champion Coetzee Can Crack The Top 10

George Coetzee remains one of the best putters around and that ability has always served him well here.

The South African shot three rounds of 66 and a 70 to win here last year, a victory that he’d been threatening for many years.

Coetzee now has four top 10s at the course in eight starts while three of his other finishes were 14th, 20th, and 21st.

A top 25 at the Open de Espana last month shows he’s in decent form and the five-time European Tour winner has ranked in the top five for Putting Average in both his latest two events.

Also third in last year’s Open de Portugal, he loves this part of Europe and I’ll confidently back him at +350 with DraftKings Sportsbook to make the top 10 yet again.

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How to Watch Portugal Masters

Portugal Masters Information
Tournament Portugal Masters
Location Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course, Vilamoura, Portugal
Time Thursday, November 04 – Sunday, November 07
How to Watch Thursday 8 am-1 pm (Golf Channel), Friday 8 am-11 am (Golf Channel), Saturday 8 am-1 pm (Golf Channel), Sunday 7 am-10 am (Golf Channel). All 4 days on Sky Sports

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Dave Tindall

Expert on Golf

Dave Tindall is former golf editor at SkySports.com and Golf365.com and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.

Email: [email protected]