Indiana Derby: Full Race Analysis and Odds for Horseshoe Indianapolis This Saturday!

Check out our predictions and odds for the 2022 Indiana Derby at Horseshoe Indianapolis!

Indiana Derby Predictions and Best Bets

Here are my plays ($60 in total)

$10 Exacta Box – Best Actor and Actuator = $20

$10 Exacta Part Wheel – Best Actor over Actuator, Rattle N Roll, and Mowins = $30

$5 Exacta Part Wheel – Actuator over Rattle N Roll and Mowins = $10

Top Pick: Best Actor (4/1)

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Coming off a win in the American Derby at Churchill Downs seven days ago, Rattle N Roll headlines a field of ten in Saturday’s Grade 3 Indiana Derby at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

A Grade 1 winner as a 2-year-old, the Kenny McPeek-trained son of Connect will be looking for his second victory this year five straight defeats to begin the season.

Chief among his challengers in the $300,000 feature will be the stakes winners Un Ojo and King Ottoman.

Un Ojo will be making his first start since a tough trip eighth in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on April 2.

Before that the one-eyed son of Laoban won the $1 million Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park as a longshot. He was forced to miss the Kentucky Derby due to a foot bruise.

King Ottoman, trained by Steve Asmussen, won the $300,000 Texas Derby at Lone Star Park in his last start.

The gray son of Curlin actually broke his maiden that afternoon after finishing third or fourth in his first three career starts.

Best Actor and Actuator should also get plenty of betting support in the 1 1/16-mile Indiana Derby. Both lightly raced colts are coming in off fast wins at Churchill Downs.

Indiana Derby Predictions and Race Analysis

Rattle N Roll

A grade 1 winner as a juvenile, this son of Connect could not quite live up to that promise this year. After being pretty well beaten in three straight against some of the top horses of the crop, he has moved down into a secondary class the last three with better results.

Most recently, he earned his first victory of the year with a convincing score in the off-the-turf American Derby at Churchill Downs. It seems odd that they would bring him back so quickly after the win, but they must feel like he is going good.

This should be a tougher test than the last one, so he will not be my top pick, but he is an obvious threat on Saturday.

Actuator

This one actually began his career on the turf at Horseshoe Indianapolis and finished third in a pair of maiden races last year. Off for eight months and transferred to the barn of Michael McCarthy, he returned in style last month with a big win going 7 furlongs at Churchill Downs.

Off the maiden breaker, he moves right up into graded stakes company. It’s a stout step up, but the race was impressive enough to believe in his future. He is a serious threat to remaining unbeaten on the dirt.

Best Actor

Trained by Brad Cox, this son of Flatter has gotten off to a very promising start to his career. A $330,000 yearling purchase, he didn’t make it to the races until mid-April when he dueled for the lead and cleared late to win a maiden special weight at Oaklawn Park.

Next out, he chased a solid pace before taking over to win easily in a fast allowance race at Churchill Downs. Looking the part of a graded stakes winner, he steps right up to this for his third career start.

With strong tactical speed, and a sharp win four weeks ago, I like his chances against a moderate field here. He is the top pick.

King Ottoman

After three decent efforts in maiden company at three different tracks, this well-bred son of Curlin stepped up with a game win in the Texas Derby. Off that maiden-breaking stakes victory, he moves into graded company on Saturday for trainer Steve Asmussen.

This test looks tougher than the one in Texas, but another move forward would certainly put him in with a chance. He could beat me, but I like a few others better here.

Un Ojo

It’s hard to know what you are going to get out of this son of Laoban on Saturday. Away from the races for more than three months, he will be making his first start for trainer Robertini Diodoro.

When last seen, he did not do much in the Arkansas Derby, but was checked pretty hard during the race. Before that, though, he earned a narrow victory over a solid Grade 2 Rebel field and rallied for second behind Early Voting in the Withers.

On his best, he is clearly a threat in here, but I am going to let him beat me after the layoff and physical issues.

Fowler Blue

From the barn of Doug O’Neill, who has won this race twice in the past, this son of Curlin to Mischief has only won twice against much cheaper in eleven career starts. Since graduating to the stakes company, he has yet to threaten in four tries around the country.

Most recently, he produced a mild rally to pass only two horses in the Texas Derby. Despite the success of the barn over the years, I find this one hard to like on Saturday.

Trademark

After winning a maiden and an allowance race in good style last fall at Churchill Downs, this son of Upstart has been thrown into the deep end of the pool ever since. In four starts this year, all in graded stakes, he has fared no better than a pair of fifth-place finishes.

This will mark his fifth consecutive graded stakes try to begin his 3-year-old season and I don’t see any good reason to expect a better result this time around.

Mowins

One of two Indiana-breds in the field, this is the one that interests me a little bit. Four times a winner over the track, he is also unbeaten going two-turns with two romping wins. His most recent was his best yet when he rolled to his third career stakes win 17 days ago.

Of course, each of those stakes wins came against fellow state-breds, so this will be a big step up. Still, I think the son of Mohaymen is worth inclusion in the exotics at attractive odds.

First Glimpse

Only once a winner in eleven career starts, this one’s lone career victory came against maiden claimers. Clearly, he deserves his place as a longshot against this Grade 3 field.

The one bright spot for the son of First Samurai is that in his only start since being gelded, he turned in a much-improved effort to run second in a local allowance race on a sloppy track. Still, I can’t jump on his bandwagon here.

New Year’s Fever

A homebred for Jim Edgar, this gelding will get a serious class test after winning his first two starts over the track nicely.

While the son of New Year’s Eve looked good in those first two starts last month, they both came against fellow Indiana-breds. Having not made his debut until less than six weeks ago, this test figures to be a little too much for him on Saturday.

How to Watch the Indiana Derby