Penn Mile Predictions, Picks, Where to Bet (Penn National)

Check out our predictions and odds for the 2022 Penn Mile at Penn National! Odds taken from TwinSpires!

Penn Mile Predictions and Best Bets

Here are my plays ($40 in total)

$10 Exacta Box – Ohtwoohthreefive and Annapolis = $20

$5 Exacta Part Wheel – Ohtwoohthreefive over Red Danger and Fort Washington = $10

$5 Exacta Part Wheel – Red Danger and Fort Washington over Ohtwoohthreefive = $10

If you’re playing only to win, go with my top pick Ohtwoohthreefive (8/1)

Annapolis, unbeaten but making his first start of the year, is the headliner among a field of eight turf sophomores entered in Friday’s $400,000 Penn Mile at Penn National.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of War Front won the Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes by a head last October at Belmont Park, which followed an impressive debut victory at Saratoga.

Being pointed for the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar last fall, Annapolis had to skip the race due to bone chips in a hind ankle and will be making his first start in eight months in Friday’s Grade 2 grass affair.

Chief among his rivals in the Penn Mile will be Red Danger and Fort Washington.

Red Danger was a two-time stakes winner in 2021, having scored in the Pulpit Stakes in December to close out his season after having won the Juvenile Sprint Stakes at Kentucky Downs last September.

Fort Washington has yet to breakthrough in a stakes race, but the son of War Front has rallied to be third and then second in a pair of stakes racing since breaking his maiden three starts back for trainer Shug McGaughey.

Penn Mile Predictions and Race Analysis

Annapolis

This well-bred son of War Front was impressed last year with two good-looking wins on the turf to begin his career. In his debut at Saratoga, he showed a good turn of foot to come from well back, and then in his stakes debut at Belmont, he showed much more tactical speed and was game to the wire.

He likely would have been a threat in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf had he stayed healthy. Away for eight months, he will need to come back running to win this Grade 2 race in his return.

While he is the one to beat, he has been away for a long time and had surgery in the interim. If he comes back at his best, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt likely wins, but I think it is worth a shot to try to beat him here.

Red Danger

This son of Orb could only manage a seventh-place finish last out, but that came in a very tough field in the Grade 2 American Turf on Kentucky Derby Day.

A two-time stakes winner last year, he has yet to find the winner’s circle in four starts this year, but he has been keeping good company in all of them and has not been embarrassed. With Paco Lopez in the irons, look for him to be one of the ones close to the early speed here.

Once again, I think it is more likely he settles for a secondary award, but it would certainly be no surprise if he is right there in the thick of things down the lane.

Fort Washington

This late runner from the Hall of Fame barn of Shug McGaughey has been very consistent in his first four career races. Picking up the pieces each time late, he’s only won once, but has already proven to be competitive in stakes company, with a third and a second already this year.

He will need to have some pace upfront early to set the table for him, but if he gets it, he has a big shot to come running for the win.

On paper, there doesn’t seem to be too much early speed in here, which likely means another on-the-board finish for the son of War Front. He is a must-use in the exotics.

Ohtwoohthreefive

Trained by George Weaver, this son of Union Rags has proven to be a very consistent turf runner. Included in his eight career races on the grass are a just miss against the classy Sy Dog in a stakes race at Aqueduct and an impressive maiden win at Belmont going a flat mile.

He hasn’t won in four tries this year, but when returned to the turf two starts ago, he turned in two solid performances in New York.

While each of the top three have reasons to doubt them, this one seems like a good candidate to run a big race with very good value. He is the top pick.

Uncaptured Spirit

The speed of the field, this one will look to see if he can take them all the way around on Friday. After showing good early speed on the dirt, he switched to the turf two starts back and was a wire-to-wire winner of a 5 1/2-furlong allowance race at Laurel Park.

He moved up to stakes company last time and faded to fourth in the one-mile James W. Murphy on Preakness Day after setting a contested pace. If they leave him alone early, he could prove tough, but I think there will be early challengers to soften him up for the drive.

Witty

This Pennsylvania-bred son of Great Notion was on a bit of a roll when last seen. After easily winning a maiden and a stakes race against fellow state-breds at Parx to close out last season, he took his show on the road to romp in an open stakes race at Laurel in January.

Away since then and never having run around two turns before, he will also be making his first start on turf on Friday. If he takes to grass and returns sharp off the layoff, he is a threat here, but the negatives outweigh the positives in this spot.

Wow Whata Summer

A son of Summer Front, his only victory in six career starts came when he was put up from second in his debut race last summer. He was somewhat competitive in a pair of stakes races last year on the turf without really threatening.

Winless in two tries this year, he looks to be a deserving longshot as he takes on his toughest competition yet in this Grade 2 affair. I can’t find enough reasons to support him against this group.

Noneedtoworry

Never before having run on the turf after nine races on the dirt, this son of Algorithms seems up against it in the Penn Mile. He did put together two straight wins at Parx over the winter, but they came against significantly less than he will face on Friday.

In three subsequent attempts in stakes company, he was unable to show much of anything in the Withers, Gotham and Federico Tesio. I find him hard to recommend in his turf debut.

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