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Back under 1.5 goals
Egypt likes to keep things tight, particularly at home, and Senegal will not go gung-ho with a second leg to come.
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There are many reasons why a 48-team World Cup is unpopular with some soccer fans, but in many African and Asian countries, there is excitement about the expansion of the tournament scheduled for 2026.
There will be almost double the number of African nations at the next edition of the World Cup than the one taking place later this year. Whereas only five will be present in Qatar, there will be nine African teams in the United States, Canada, and Mexico in four years.
That is good news for the continent. For now, though, we face the prospect of one of the two best teams in Africa missing out on the 2022 World Cup. Senegal beat Egypt on penalties in the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations final just a few weeks ago. In the next few days, the pair will lock horns again with a place at the World Cup on the line. The stakes could hardly be higher.
Senegal could not find a way past Egypt in regulation time in the final in Cameroon. Sadio Mane missed a penalty in the fourth minute and Aliou Cisse’s side spurned several other golden opportunities to make a breakthrough. After Egypt successfully shut Senegal out for 120 minutes, the advantage seemingly belonged to them. But the Lions of Teranga held their nerve to triumph on spot-kicks.
Both Cisse and his opposite number, Carlos Queiroz, will have learned lessons from their respective team’s performance on the night. However, they have had minimal time to make any meaningful changes in response.
This will be Egypt and Senegal’s first matches since the final. There is no trophy up for grabs this time, but the prize on offer is just as big.
Queiroz, who was appointed Egypt manager in 2021, looks like a good fit for the position.
In recent years the Pharaohs have tended towards a conservative, counter-attacking approach with an emphasis on keeping things tight at the back and nicking goals on the break. In many ways it has served them well: Egypt qualified for the 2018 World Cup and were a penalty shoot-out away from being crowned African champions this year.
Yet it is hard to shake the feeling that this team is capable of so much more.
Liverpool forward Mohamed Salah is arguably the best player in the world right now. By playing more attacking soccer, Egypt could get even more out of their star man. Instead, Salah is often left to fight for scraps up front on his own. It is almost as if Egypt feels that showing too much ambition would be detrimental.
Queiroz will not change his ways in this play-off, and perhaps his team’s ability to shut out opposition attacks and keep clean sheets will pay dividends this time. It is a dangerous game to play, though.
Making it to the World Cup is all that matters, but Egypt could come unstuck over two legs if they fail to show enough attacking intent.
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Having said that, Senegal know they will be in for a tough match at the Cairo International Stadium on Friday.
Egypt has won 20 of their last 21 World Cup qualifiers at home. Three of those wins came in the second round of the current campaign when Egypt conceded only one goal to Gabon, Libya, and Angola. Queiroz’s side do not score many goals, but they concede even fewer.
Senegal are likely to have plenty of possession in the first leg, just as they did in the Africa Cup of Nations final. But if they are to prise Egypt’s backline open, they will have to show more guile than they did in Cameroon. It is easy to envisage Senegal being frustrated by their hosts, who will be roared on by one of the most passionate fan bases in African soccer.
Matches like this between two evenly-matched teams are hard to predict, but we can make one forecast with a degree of confidence: there are unlikely to be too many goals in Cairo.
In fact, it would not be a huge surprise if this game ended 0-0. With a second leg still to come, Senegal will not force the issue – and it is not in Egypt’s nature to do so either.
Instead of backing 0-0 in the correct scoreline market, opt for the safer choice of under 1.5 goals.
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Egypt vs Senegal Information | |
Teams | Egypt vs Senegal |
Location | Cairo International Stadium, Cairo, Egypt |
Time | Friday 25 March 2022, 03.30 PM EST |
How to watch | ESPN+ |
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Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts. Email: [email protected]
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