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The Three Lions are stuck in a rut right now and the visitors to Wembley can take advantage.
Back Germany to beat England on Monday.
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Of all the times to lose form, this is perhaps the worst. England remain winless in the 2022/23 Nations League, having failed to emerge victorious in each of their first five matches. A 1-0 defeat by Italy on Friday condemned the Three Lions to relegation to League B. But even more concerning is the fact that the loss in Milan took place less than two months before the start of the 2022 World Cup. As such, England do not look in particularly good shape going into Qatar.
There is no doubt that the national team has made huge progress under Gareth Southgate. England have been one of the biggest underachievers in international soccer, with just one major tournament triumph – and that, at the 1966 World Cup, came with the benefit of home advantage. Southgate inherited a team that had recently been embarrassed by Iceland at Euro 2016, and within two years turned them into World Cup semi-finalists. Last summer, they came within a penalty shoot-out of being crowned European champions for the first time.
Yet there are signs that Southgate has lost his way. His conservative methods always attracted a degree of criticism among supporters, but it was harder to dispute when results were positive. Now, though, the argument that Southgate is holding a talented squad back contains more merit. Despite an abundance of attacking quality within the ranks, England have gone 495 minutes without scoring a goal from open play.
That would be cause for concern at any time, but it is particularly worrying given how close we are to the World Cup. England look bereft of not only confidence but also ideas. There is no clear attacking strategy, the type of which is a prerequisite for success at the very highest level. As things stand, it is hard to see Southgate’s side going deep in Qatar.
Germany will not be relegated to League B but the 2022/23 Nations League has not gone to plan for them either. In many ways the Mannschaft have improved since Joachim Low’s tenure as national team manager finally ended after last summer’s European Championship. Germany’s elimination from that tournament came at Wembley in a 2-0 defeat by the opponents they will face at the same ground on Monday.
Even so, Germany have not yet provided enough evidence for them to be one of the leading favorites to win the World Cup – and the best online sportsbooks seem to agree, with most placing them sixth in the rankings. They may have topped their World Cup qualification group with a minimum of fuss, but against stronger opposition the Mannschaft have been inconsistent throughout their Nations League campaign.
While it was possible to take positives from 1-1 draws with Italy and England earlier in the group phase, a 1-0 loss to Hungary last time out means Germany took just one point from their two meetings with the so-called weakest team in the group. Hungary, in fairness, have exceeded everyone’s expectations in recent months, but Germany were indisputably poor on Friday. It was a performance and a loss that showed that Flick’s team still has a long way to go.
As far as the Nations League is concerned, this match has little significance. England have already been demoted from League A, while Germany can no longer qualify for the Finals (the battle for top spot is now between Hungary and Italy, who meet in Budapest on Monday). But with the World Cup just around the corner, both England and Germany will be desperate to register a morale-boosting victory.
The odds on offer would appear to suggest that the Three Lions are clear favorites, perhaps because of home advantage more than anything. But playing in front of thousands of your own fans is not always a positive. The Wembley crowd could grow restless if things do not go well, even if the score is still 0-0. Southgate has already come under fire from England supporters inside the stadium, with many openly criticizing him after a stunning 4-0 thumping by Hungary in June.
Germany struggled to break down the Hungarians when they had the lion’s share of possession last time out, but they should fare better in a match where there will be more opportunities to break forward at speed and play on the counter-attack. Back Germany to take advantage of England’s woes by winning at Wembley as the 2022/23 Nations League group phase comes to an end.
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Teams | England vs Germany |
Location | Wembley Stadium, London, England |
Time | Monday, 26 September 2022, 14.45 PM EST |
How to watch | fuboTV |
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Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts. Email: [email protected]
More info on Greg Lea
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