Club America vs Deportivo Toluca: CF America Still Unbeaten at Home This Season

• Toluca ended CF America’s 14-game unbeaten streak when they earned a hard-fought 2-1 win
• CF America are still unbeaten at home this Apertura season, winning 6 and drawing 2 of their 8 home games
• Toluca have lost the last two Apertura Playoff encounters against CF America. The latter won 5-4 on aggregate in 2018 and won 3-2 on aggregate in 2013

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Club America vs Deportivo Toluca Prediction

This will be the fourth Liga MX Apertura Playoff meeting between these two sides.

It is difficult to pick a favorite based on the head-to-head record of these two sides as it is fairly even. They have played each other 30 times in Liga MX. Toluca have won 9 games while CF America have registered 11 wins and the remaining 10 have ended in stalemates.

The two sides have previously met in the Liga MX Apertura Playoffs of 2012, 2013, and 2018. The Diablos Rojos won the tie in 2012 but the Aguilas came out on top in 2013 and 2018. They went on to win their 13th title in 2018

Toluca only won 3 out of their 8 away games in the league this season. In the quarter-finals, they narrowly defeated ten-men Santos Laguna but the match against CF America will be a different ball game altogether.

CF America Unbeaten at Estadio Azteca

The late goal CF America scored at the Estadio Nemesio Diez could prove to be the lifeline that the Aguilas desperately needed. Now they return home to play in a stadium that they have not lost a single game in this season.

The last time Toluca won at the venue was four years ago, during the Liga MX 2018 Clausura. The last time Toluca won an Apertura Playoff match at this venue was way back in 2012 when the visitors stunned CF America with a 2-0 win.

Club America Hungry for Title No. 14

In the Aperture league phase this season, CF America finished at the top of the table after winning 12 out of 17 games. The Aguilas scored 38 goals and let in only 17, finishing with the league’s best goal difference (+21).

In the quarterfinals, CF America walloped Club Puebla 11-2 on aggregate.

Statistically, CF America have been the most formidable team in the Liga MX Aperture this season. The side have recorded the highest goals-per-match (2.5) and also kept the ball well with an average possession of 56.6%.

CF America haven’t got their hands on the league title since 2018. The Aguilas will be desperate to end the drought this season by bringing in their 14th Liga MX title. But first, they will have to get past 10-time winners Deportivo Toluca.

Henry Martin Firing on All Cylinders

Striker Henry Martin has played an influential role for CF America so far this season. In the league stage, the 29-year-old scored 10 goals and nabbed 5 assists in 17 games. In the playoffs, so far, he has played 3 games, scored 3 goals, and pocketed an assist.

Martin assisted Emilio Lara’s goal against Toluca in the last game. Knowing that just a narrow win will take CF America to the finals will make Henry Martin bring his A-game to the pitch in the second leg of the semifinal.

The striker has provided 2 assists in 3 games against Toluca so far but is yet to score against them this season. His last goal in this fixture came in the Liga MX Apertura 2021-22 when he scored CF America’s only goal in a 3-1 defeat.

Decimated Opponents in the Quarter Finals

CF America faced Club Puebla in the quarterfinal. In the first leg, away from home, the Aguilas smashed 6 past Los Camoteros. Jordi Cortizo had put the hosts in front after 14 minutes. After that, Puebla faced a barrage of CF America attacks.

Diego Valdes, Alejandro Zendejas, Brian Rodriguez, and Federico Vinas got on the scoresheet. The prolific Henry Martin joined his teammates on the scoresheet with a splendid brace.

In the second leg, CF America netted 5 past Puebla. All five goals came from different players – Brian Rodriguez, Henry Martin, Roger Martinez, Alvaro Fidalgo, and Miguel Layun - displaying the array of attacking talent in the side.

Deportivo Toluca Nervy

Toluca finished 7th in the Aperture league phase this season after winning just 7 out of 17 games. The Diablos Rojos ended the league phase with 27 goals to their name and conceded 23, giving them a goal difference of +4.

Toluca averaged 1.8 goals per match in the league stage while their concession average was at 1.3. A clean sheet in their next game will confirm their passage to the finals but Toluca have only managed to keep 3 clean sheets in their last 21 games.

The Diablos Rojos rank second, behind CF America, in the Big Chances Created table with 38 chances. However, they are also second, behind Cruz Azul, on the Big Chances Missed table with 28 misses.

Deportivo Toluca swept Santos Laguna away with a 6-4 aggregate win in the quarterfinals.

Unconvincing Victory In The First Leg

Toluca secured a crucial home win in the first leg but it was not a convincing one. CF America finished the game with 62% ball possession. The Aguilas played 472 (84%) accurate passes compared to the Diablos Rojos’ 265 (75%).

The Toluca defense was solid as CF America finished the game with 16 shots, 7 of which were on target and only one crept in. At the other end, Toluca managed 11 shots, out of which 4 were on target.

CF America won more aerial and ground duels than Toluca. So, ultimately, the Aguilas did everything except winning. If Toluca fail to stage the same defensive performance in the second leg, CF America will be in line for a victory.

Camilo Ineffective in the Last Two Games

Toluca scored 27 goals in the league stage this season. Striker Camilo Sanvezzo is their top-scorer with 6 goals and 1 assist in 17 games. In the playoffs, he has scored 3 in 4 games. However, the Brazilian has been sub-par in the last two games.

After scoring in 4 successive games, the striker has entered a dry spell at the wrong time. The 34-year-old failed to score or assist in the quarterfinal second leg against Santos Laguna and in the semifinal first leg against CF America.

Misfiring for a third consecutive game would put the striker and his team under immense pressure. Toluca will be relying on their other attacker, Carlos Gonzalez if Camilo cannot find form at the Estadio Azteca.

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