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The Rays were able to hold off a comeback by the Red Sox offense to win 9-7 yesterday. While they didn’t get the win, Boston did show some life in their offense for the first time in the series. Now they’ll need to find a way to keep their bats hot against Jeffrey Springs, who has yet to allow a run this season.
While Springs’ stats may lead many to take the under, his splits against Boston have us believing he will fall victim to this Red Sox lineup. In 2022, the Tampa pitcher faced the Red Sox five times and allowed nine runs over 108 innings. Even with Duvall and Yoshida out, the Red Sox still have a formidable lineup led by Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo, and Justin Turner.
Another reason I love the over here is that Corey Kluber will be on the mound for Boston. The former Cy Young winner is quickly approaching the end of his career. He finished with a 4.34 ERA for the Rays' last reason and has a 6.48 ERA this season. A big reason for the Rays being 12-0 is their ability to capitalize on mediocre pitching, and that is what we’ll see today.
Take the over on this one and enjoy what will be an exciting final game of the series.
Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Vince Velasquez gives up a LOT of runs. The veteran starter is in his first season with the Pirates and owns a career 4.98 ERA. That hasn’t changed in 2023, as Velasquez has allowed eight runs over 7 ⅓ innings in his first two starts. While he didn’t face the Cardinals last year, He did two seasons ago. In 2021 he faced St. Louis three times, surrendering seven earned runs over 10 ⅔ innings.
The Cardinals' offense has been impressive to begin the season. They are fourth in the MLB in batting average (.286) and sixth in hits (109). They haven’t been able to turn many of them into runs, ranking twenty-first with 48. That will change tonight as they face a Pirates pitcher that gives up plenty of runs.
The Pirates' offense will be up against a talented veteran pitcher in Jordan Montgomery. The left-hander dominated the Brewers in his last start, going seven innings with zero runs and nine strikeouts. It’s impressive, but the Pirates are finding ways to generate offense this season. While they rank lower in RBIs and hits, the Pirates are eighth in home runs (15) and fourth in stolen bases (14). We don’t think they’ll be able to generate enough runs to keep up with the Cardinals, but it will be enough to hit the over.
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Twins’ starter Joe Ryan is a talented young arm but has struggled against formidable lineups. We saw that when he gave up four runs to the Astros in his last start. The second-year pitcher also struggled on the road last season, posting an ERA of 4.22 (3.04 ERA at home).
Ryan did start one game against the Yankees last season but was chased after giving up four earned runs and four walks in four innings. He had similar numbers against other potent offenses, including the Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, and Astros. Ryan is improved from his rookie season, but the Astro gam shows he still has a ways to go.
The Yankees' offense ranks in the top 14 of the league in every significant offensive category. While they don’t crack the top five, this shows how well-rounded they are already. New York’s bats were quieter in their win yesterday, so expect a big bounce back at home tonight.
The Yankees have won the first game of every series they have played. That trend will continue tonight.
Max Heering graduated from the University of Kansas Sport Management program in May 2020. Max follows and writes about the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, MLS, college football, and college basketball. In his free time, you can catch Max draining threes on the basketball court. Email: [email protected]More info on Max Heering
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