Best NRFI Bets Today, April 13

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays - Corey Kluber (RHP) vs Jeffrey Springs (LHP)

Under 0.5 Runs (-155 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Day games are typically dominated by pitchers, especially early in games because the pitchers are usually well rested while the hitters need time to get going. That helps to mitigate some of the concerns with Corey Kluber’s uneven start. In fairness, his 6.48 ERA is mostly because of a bad season opener against the Orioles. He was much better in his second start of the season despite taking the loss. Even with the Rays off to an incredible 12-0 start, Kluber should be able to avoid trouble in the first inning.

As for the Rays, Jeffrey Springs is yet to allow a run this season, so he should be able to keep that going in the first inning of Thursday’s game. The lefty has allowed just three hits and four walks over his first 13 innings, striking out 19 during that stretch. He’s been utterly dominant this year, and there’s no reason to think that will change on Thursday. Springs also had a solid 3.60 ERA in the first inning of games last year, so he’s typically performed well early in games. Given his dominance, it’d be shocking to see him struggle out of the gate Thursday, helping to steer that value in this game toward no runs being scored early.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds - Bailey Falter (LHP) vs Nick Lodolo (LHP)

Under 0.5 Runs (-140 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Even in a hitter-friendly in Cincinnati, a pair of lefties should be able to maintain a scoreless first inning. For the Phillies, Bailey Falter has only allowed three runs over his first 10.1 innings of the season. Giving up home runs is where he’s gotten hurt the most early in 2023, but that plays in his favor because the Reds haven’t showcased a lot of power thus far. Falter also rocked a 2.25 ERA in the first inning of his starts in 2022, conceding just four earned runs in 16 starts during the opening inning. The Phillies should be in safe hands with him on the mound.

In fairness, the Phillies have enough offensive firepower to be a threat to score in the first inning of a game. However, they had no answer for Nick Lodolo, who threw seven scoreless innings in Philadelphia last week. The lefty allowed just three hits and struck out 12, showing a complete mastery of the Phillies. Keep in mind that some of Philly’s best hitters early in the season like Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh hit left-handed, allowing Lodolo to neutralize them. Plus, Philly’s biggest home run threat Kyle Schwarber is off to a dreadful start, so he’s not much of a factor right now. Look for Lodolo to match Falter by pitching a scoreless first inning on Thursday night.

Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays - Spencer Turnbull (RGP) vs Chris Bassitt (RHP)

Over 0.5 Runs (-115 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

The MLB game on Thursday with the best chance of first-inning fireworks features the Tigers and Blue Jays, who are wrapping up their three-game series. While the Blue Jays haven’t had a lot of success in the first inning of games this season, they have a dynamic that looks ready to jump all over Spencer Turnbull after scoring at least four runs in six straight games. The righty has allowed 12 runs on 13 hits over his first eight innings of the season, so it’d be unusual for him to pitch a scoreless inning. While most of Toronto’s hitters haven’t faced Turnbull, the Blue Jays have a stocked lineup, especially the top half, making a first-inning run likely against a pitcher who’s struggled as much as Turnbull this year.

On the other side, the Blue Jays must be at least mildly concerned with Chris Bassitt’s performance thus far. He got crushed for nine runs over 3.1 innings against the Cardinals in his first start and then walked five in six innings despite looking better against the Angels last week. Bassitt is yet to iron out whatever has been plaguing him early in the season. Facing a lackluster Detroit lineup should help, although it doesn’t completely negate the possibility that he’ll continue to struggle and give up a run in the first inning. That increases the likelihood of a first-inning run in this game.

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