Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, April 21

There are 15 games on the Friday MLB schedule, and this couldn’t be better for us as bettors. With 10% of the season in the books, we know the teams we can trust which helps raise our gambling success rate. We also have learned who the franchises are that have quickly made their way to the no bet list. Last Friday, we went 2-1 on our best bets, and we’re looking for the sweep today. Let’s get into the plays for Friday April 20. 

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees 

• Time: 7:05 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Yusei Kikuchi (TOR) vs Domingo German (NYY)
• Moneyline: Blue Jays (+114) | Yankees (-134)
• Run Line: Blue Jays +1.5 (-182) | Yankees -1.5 (+150)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-124) | Under 8.5 (+102)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

My Pick: Over 8.5 runs (-124)

The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays will compete in a huge AL East series this weekend. Both teams must continue winning to keep up with the Rays, who have only lost three games this season. The Yankees and Blue Jays are similar in the sense that they both have power hitters from top to bottom. 

Both teams have been trending under recently, but this is because they have quality starting pitchers at the frontend of the rotation. On Friday, we will not see the best pitchers in Yusei Kikuchi and Domingo German. Kikuchi is 2-0, but he has a 4.70 ERA and has allowed 16 hits in 15.1 innings. His biggest flaw has been hanging his offspeed pitches, which has resulted in a lot of homers. 

Kikcuchi is averaging nearly three home runs per nine innings, which won’t cut it in MLB. German has been strong this season, but he hasn’t faced many noteworthy lineups. German pitched against a struggling Phillies team, the Guardians and the Twins. The Blue Jays trump all three of these teams. The 8.5 run total is too low for the offenses in this game. 

Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers

• Time: 8:05 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: JP Sears (OAK) vs Jon Gray (TEX)
• Moneyline: Athletics (+164) | Rangers (-196)
• Run Line: Athletics +1.5 (+170) | Rangers -1.5 (+105)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (-102)

My Pick: Rangers -1.5 (+105)

It’s sad watching the Oakland Athletics because this team has no chance to be good for years to come. The most positive news coming out of the Athletics franchise is they’re moving to Vegas for a fresh start. Oakland A’s baseball has been nothing but depression in 2023, and anytime you can get -1.5 for plus money with their opponent, it’s a viable betting option. 

The Athletics are 3-16 and 1-6 on the road in 2023. They’ll travel to Texas to face the Rangers, and this should be an easy series win for the home team. The Rangers have been hot, posting a 12-6 record thus far and a 6-3 mark in Arlington. 

Texas is -1.5 (+105) with a massive advantage at the plate. JP Sears is one of the better wings for Oakland but the team has hit much stronger pitchers. Sears is 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. In 15.2 innings, he has allowed 15 hits and five homers. The Rangers have scored 112 runs compared to 65 for Oakland. 

Every stat points to the Rangers in this position. The Athletics are closer to a Triple-A roster than a big league squad, and we must take advantage of the Ranger’s generous price. 

Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies

• Time: 6:40 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Noah Davis (COL) vs Aaron Nola (PHI)
• Moneyline: Rockies (+255) | Phillies (-290)
• Run Line: Rockies -1.5 (+114) | Phillies -1.5 (-115)
• Total: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)

My Pick: Under 9 (-115)

The Philadelphia Phillies are an embarrassment every time they take the field, and that’s putting it nicely. The team lost Rhys Hoskins prior to the season and Bryce Harper is still out with an injury, but the Phillies have no respect for themselves at this point. They were bested 5-0 by the Rockies in the series opener.

Philadelphia shouldn’t be shut out by the Rockies, one of the worst teams in MLB. The Phillies are 8-12 and 3-4 at home this year, and they’ve suffered some ugly losses. This lineup is too good to perform as they have early in the season, but this may be the Phillies of 2023.
As bettors, we can only go off what we’ve seen as of late, and Philadelphia is no longer a National League champion. That success occurred last year, and isn’t the franchise’s current identity. Therefore, we must take their current play ability and match it with the market. 

The Phillies can’t score and they have Aaron Nola on the bump on Friday. Nola has been getting lit up, but he hasn’t been giving up the long ball. Colorado has a tough time spraying runs together so look for them to be limited offensively. The Phillies have shown very little signs of scoring, so we’re going to take the under in this spot.