Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, April 28

This week’s Friday MLB slate is loaded, and there is a lot of betting value all over the board. The action starts with a day game between the Royals and the Twins. It concludes with the Cardinals and Dodgers on the west coast. There is a betting option for every type of MLB bettor, so let’s get into some of the best picks of the day. 

Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox 

• Time: 7:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Shane Bieber (CLE) vs Nick Pivetta (BOS)
• Moneyline: Guardians (-140) | Red Sox (+118)
• Run Line: Guardians -1.5 (+126) | Red Sox +1.5 (-152)
• Total: Over 9 (-108) | Under 9 (-112)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

My Pick: Under 9 Runs (-112)

The Boston Red Sox have been playing very good baseball as of late. Their biggest issue is that they play in the AL East, which features three elite clubs, and an emerging group in the Orioles. Baltimore isn’t expected to win the division, but they do currently hold the second-best record in the American League. There are very few easy games for the Red Sox, so it’s remarkable they’re .500 after 26 contests. 

Boston must go through Shane Bieber and the Guardians, which won’t be easy on Friday night. Bieber is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he knows how to locate. This makes him dangerous, even against a Red Sox team that has been hitting. Bieber is a major reason I’m taking the under in this matchup, but it’s also because of Cleveland’s offense. 

The Guardians are hitting just .231 as a team and slugging .348. They don’t have an offense that can match the Red Sox, and they’ve only scored five runs in their past three games. Additionally, they don’t have much power throughout the order, blasting just 13 homers in 2023. This should give Nick Pivetta an easier night on the hill for Boston. 

The pitcher is 1-1 with a 4.58 and a 1.37 WHIP. When Pivetta controls his walk problem, he is one of the best in the Red Sox rotation. He doesn’t have to fear the long ball, which makes me think he’ll pound the zone and be effective, and this is why I’m leaning toward the under. 

Los Angeles Angels @ Milwaukee Brewers

• Time: 8:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Tyler Anderson (LAA) vs Wade Miley (MIL)
• Moneyline: Angels (+114) | Brewers (-134)
• Run Line: Angels +1.5 (-178) | Brewers -1.5 (+150)
• Total: Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (-102)

My Pick: Brewers ML (-134)

The Los Angeles Angels struggled against the Oakland Athletics this week. They found a way to win the series but gave up so many runs. The Angels allowed 24 runs in four games to the Athletics, who are closer to a Triple-A team than a pro roster. The Athletics have a lot of fight, but they’re not in the same arena as the Brewers in any aspect of the game. 

If Los Angeles struggled with Oakland, they will have a tough time against Milwaukee. Additionally, Shohei Ohtani, the best player in baseball, pitched on Thursday. He is the best wing Los Angeles has on their team, and there is a steep drop-off after the ace. This fact is evident based on their Friday starter, Tyler Anderson. 

Anderson has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season, with a 7.20 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. In 20 innings, he has allowed 26 hits with just 11 strikeouts. Anderson relies on location because of his lackluster velocity. He is averaging 89.3 mph on his fastball, which won’t get the job done in the big leagues without elite location. 

Wade Miley will take the ball for the Brewers and is off to a tremendous start. The pitcher is 3-1 with a 1.96 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. He has only allowed two homers in 23 innings, and this is an aspect of the game Los Angeles relies on for a win. Friday’s game is an ideal matchup for the Brewers, and that’s why we’re taking their moneyline. 

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

• Time: 8:40 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Merrill Kelly (ARZ) vs Kyle Freeland (COL)
• Moneyline: Diamondbacks (-126) | Rockies (+108)
• Run Line: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+112) | Rockies +1.5 (-134)
• Total: Over 11.5 (-102) | Under 11.5 (-120)

My Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-126)

The Diamondbacks have an elite pitching staff, and it’s why they’re at the top of the NL West. The National League West is one of the best divisions in baseball, and this team wasn’t expected to stay afloat. However, they’re on pace to surpass their win total of 74.5 and contend for a playoff spot at this point of the year. The big reason for the Diamondbacks success has been their pitching, and one of their stars is on the mound Friday. 

Merrill Kelly has struggled at times, but he is an exceptional locator. Sometimes he gets too particular with his location, which does lead to more walks, but he limits the long ball. The pitcher has only allowed two homers in 26.1 innings this year. This is a critical quality to have in Colorado where balls leave the yard consistently.

The Diamondbacks are hitting .260 as a team and can match the Rockies in power. We expect them to hit Kyle Freeland very well, with his 4.28 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Freeland can be solid, but he isn’t as dominant as Kelly. Take the visitors as road favorites have been hitting at 65% rate.