Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, April 7

MLB season is off and running. While we have a long season ahead, teams are already starting to show either great promise or many red flags through the first week. Baseball betting can be difficult because even the worst team in MLB will win 60 games this year. However, the sport is driven by analytics, so even a week of data can help us make educated wagers. Let’s get into our favorite plays for the Friday slate. 

Oakland A’s @ Tampa Bay Rays

• Time: 6:40 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Ken Waldichuk (OAK) vs Zach Eflin (TB)
• Moneyline: A’s (+188) | Rays (-225)
• Run Line: A’s +1.5 (-115) | Rays -1.5 (-105)
• Total: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

My Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-105)

The Oakland Athletics have battled through the first week of the season. If there is one team laying it on the line nightly, it’s Oakland. They have countless young players who are hungry to make an impression at the big-league level. However, it takes time to become a legitimate major league player, and the A’s don’t have many men on the roster that can carry the team. The A’s will likely have the worst record in baseball this season, and it’s because they’re just less talented than their opponents. 

The Athletics will face the Rays, and this is a bad matchup for Oakland. The talent discrepancy is why we’re going to take Tampa Bay’s run line, which is fairly priced at -105. Zach Eflin will take the ball for the undefeated Rays, and he was amazing in his first start. The pitcher struck out five in five innings and only walked one batter. 

Ken Waldichuk will pitch for Oakland; his ERA is 9.53 after one start. This number will come down, but he gave up three homers last time out, and the Rays have a tremendous eye at the plate. This could lead to many more moonshots on Friday at Tropicana Field. The Rays are the first team in seven years to start 6-0, and we don’t expect this streak to end on Friday. 

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

• Time: 1:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Edward Cabrera (MIA) vs Tylor Megill (NYM)
• Moneyline: Marlins (+128) | Mets (-152)
• Run Line: Marlins +1.5 (+170) | Mets -1.5 (+140)
• Total: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)

My Pick: New York Mets ML (-152)

The New York Mets should be embarrassed following their showing against the Brewers in the second series of the season. The Mets were dominated by Milwaukee in every facet of the game. New York didn’t even score for the first two games of the series, getting outscored 19-0.

In the final game of the series, the Brewers hit a walk-off homer to complete the sweep of the Mets. New York hasn’t been doing the little things right, as they’re hitting just .208 as a team. The Mets faced the Marlins in the first series of the year, and the two teams split. However, the Mets are now in their home opener, and if they have any pride, they should come out on fire. 

Edward Cabrera (MIA) and Tylor Megill (NYM) will take the ball. They pitched in the first series of the season against each other, and the Mets won 6-2. Neither pitcher was dominant, but Cabrera has been known for control issues, and we saw this in his first start. He walked six batters over four innings.

Megill’s strikeout ability is elite, and this was evident last week. He fanned seven batters in five innings, and we expect a similar result. The home crowd will be rocking for the Mets’ opener at Citi Field, and this will help them get the job done. 

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles 

• Time: 3:05 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Clarke Schmidt (NYY) vs Dean Kremer (BAL)
• Moneyline: Yankees (-116) | Orioles (-102)
• Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+134) | Orioles +1.5 (-162)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

My Pick: Over 8.5 (-115)

The New York Yankees are off to a 4-2 start and will face the Orioles for the first time this season on Friday. The primary issue with New York early in the season is pitching. Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes headline the rotation, but the staff is limited after these two stars. Frankie Montas will miss the entire season with an injury, and Rodon is rehabbing a left forearm strain. This has forced the Yankees to put pitchers like Clarke Schmidt in larger roles for the team. Schmidt doesn’t seem ready to be a starter, based on his first performance of the season. He allowed five hits and two homers in 3.1 innings against the Giants. 

Schmidt has good strikeout pitches, but he consistently leaves breaking balls hanging, which leads to runs. The Orioles don’t have a strong pitcher on the mound either in Dean Kremer. Kremer has been responsible for cashing multiple overs in his career, and we think this will occur on Friday. 

Kremer has a 15 ERA after one start and a 2.33 WHIP. Nothing in Kremer’s arsenal is overpowering, and the Yankees should feast on his pitching. We believe New York will win this game, but the value play is over at Camden Yards. 

Both pitchers have a higher likelihood of getting hit than having a strong performance. This factor, combined with the two offenses in this matchup are making us take the over of 8.5. 

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