Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, July 3

This Monday, July 3rd, begins the last week of the first half of the 2023 MLB Season and the 2023 MLB All-Star Break. There will be some key divisional games that help carry momentum through the All-Star Break into the second half of the season a few weeks later. One game will feature the return of New York Yankees pitcher Domingo German, who is fresh off his perfect game last week. There are several games to bet as well as one of the last chances before the All-Star Break.

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees

• Time: 5:05 PM E.T. - Monday
• Starting Pitchers: Tyler Wells (Orioles) vs Domingo German (Yankees)
• Moneyline: Orioles (-120) | Yankees (+100)
• Run Line: Orioles -1.5 (+150) | Yankees +1.5 (-175)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8;5 (-115)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out other MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities! 

My Pick: Baltimore Orioles (BAL)

This Monday, July 3rd, the Baltimore Orioles (49-33) are set to host a crucial four-game series against the New York Yankees (46-38) in the loaded race for the AL East Divisional title. The series is split 3-3 as the Orioles have won the last two games of the series.

This will be a big game for the Yankees and their starting pitcher Domingo German (4.54 ERA in 81.1 innings pitched) as this will be German’s first game on the mound since throwing a perfect game in the Yankees’ 11-0 win over the Oakland Athletics on June 28th. While German’s accomplishment for the MLB’s 24th-ever perfect game is not to be undermined, the opponent was the Athletics.

German will have to look past the historic performance and prepare for a consistent and well-rounded batting team of the Orioles. Baltimore ranks fifth in the AL in runs accounted for (391), eighth in home runs (96), sixth in stolen bases (62), third in fewest strikeouts encountered (677), sixth in batting average (.249), sixth in on-base percentage (.319) and sixth in slugging percentage (.415).

The Yankees are having a hard time at the plate without their star outfielder in Aaron Judge. New York is 16-19 without their star batter this season. To make matters worse for the Yankees, they are having to go against the Orioles’ best pitcher Tyler Wells (3.21 ERA in 92.2 innings pitched).

All signs are going in the way of the Orioles, who have the pitching, top-tier healthy talent at the plate, and the momentum.

Atlanta Braves @ Cleveland Guardians

• Time: 7:10 PM E.T. - Monday
• Starting Pitchers: Bryce Elder (Braves) vs Gavin Williams (Guardians)
• Moneyline: Braves (-155) | Guardians (+135)
• Run Line: Braves -1.5 (+105) | Guardians +1.5 (-125)
• Total: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

My Pick: Atlanta Braves (ATL)

The Atlanta Braves (56-27) had one of the best sets of performances in the entire MLB in the month of June thanks to the elite talent throughout their team. The Braves had 61 home runs at home just in the month of June.

The Cleveland Guardians (41-42) had a successful month of June as they 14-12 and over .500% for the first time in any month this season. As of Monday, July 3rd, the Guardians are tied with the Minnesota Twins for first place in the AL Central.

The Guardians will host the Braves in a three-game series to start the final week of the 2023 season before the All-Star Break. Among the games being played on Monday, there is a lower faith that the Braves will be victorious over the Guardians.

Atlanta’s batting team ranks first in the NL in runs accounted for (470), first in hits accounted for (773), first in home runs accounted for (158), first in batting average (.272), first in on-base percentage (.341) and first in slugging percentage (.497). The Braves are one of the most consistent batting teams in the entire MLB this season.

The Braves are set to face Gavin Williams (2.84 ERA in 12.2 innings pitched) at the mound for the Guardians. While Williams has been productive in his limited role, the Braves’ elite batting team will be too much.

On the other side of the spectrum, the Braves are going with their ace pitcher Bryce Elder (2.44 ERA in 96 innings pitched). He will give the Guardians’ batting team, who ranks 12th in the AL in runs accounted for (336), some serious trouble.

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

• Time: 8:10 PM E.T. - Monday
• Starting Pitchers: Austin Cox (Royals) vs Joe Ryan (Twins)
• Moneyline: Royals (+190) | Twins (-225)
• Run Line: Royals +1.5 (-105) | Twins -1.5 (-115)
• Total: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

My Pick: Minnesota Twins (MIN)

The Minnesota Twins (42-43) are more thankful that the month of June is over. The Twins started the 2023 MLB Season 17-12 with a solid lead in the AL Central Division, but have since accounted for a 24-30 in May and June. They have to be feeling some gratitude, however, as they are not in the situation like the Kansas City Royals (25-59), who are at the bottom of the barrel in the AL Central Division and the AL overall.

The Twins are set to host the Royals in the final AL Central Divisional matchup before the start of the 2023 MLB All-Star Break. The Twins and the Royals have not faced each other since the four-game series in Minnesota from April 27th to 30th. Minnesota has accounted for a 6-1 record over Kansas City in the seven games played this season.

In those seven games, the Twins have averaged 5.1 runs, 9.1 hits, 5.0 RBIs, 15 total bases, 3.9 walks, 9.4 strikeouts, a .272 batting average, an on-base percentage of .352 and a slugging .447 slugging percentage.

It doesn’t help the Royals that their pitching units have gotten worse this season. Kansas City ranks 14th in the AL in ERA (5.20) as well as 14th in hits allowed (742), 14th in runs allowed (450), 13th in walks allowed (309) and 13th in strikeouts enforced (675). The Royals will be going with Austin Cox (2.25 ERA in 16 innings pitched), who has shown progress but is not ready to take on the Twins’ batting.