Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, June 29

Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels

• Time: 4:07 PM EST
• Starting Pitchers: RHP Lance Lynn (CHW) vs LHP Patrick Sandoval (LAA)
• Moneyline: White Sox +135 | Angels -155
• Run Line: White Sox +1.5 (-145) | Angels -1.5 (+125)
• Total: Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (+100)

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings

My Pick: Over 9 Runs (-120)

This is the easiest bet to make today. We have a matchup between two pitchers that sport ERAs over 5.90 in June, and both are coming off of rough outings. We know the Angels can put up big run totals, especially with Shohei Ohtani tearing the cover off the ball in June. The White Sox offense has struggled, but they are good enough to put up four or five runs against bad pitching, which they will see this afternoon. We’re locking in this bet before the line moves higher up.

The White Sox will have Lance Lynn (4-8, 6.40 ERA) on the mound tonight. The 36-year-old is having the worst season of his long career, and there are no signs that things are turning around. Lynn has a 5.96 ERA in four June starts, allowing at least three runs in each. The veteran hasn’t been able to miss bats this season, leading to an ugly 1.49 WHIP. That isn’t going to get any easier today when he faces Ohtani, Mike Trout, and the rest of this LA lineup. 

Patrick Sandoval (4-6, 4.16 ERA) will be on the bump for the Angels tonight, which is why we are locking in this over. He looks like a different pitcher from his fantastic 2022 campaign, and things have been terrible in June. Sandoval has a 6.20 ERA across four starts this month and allowed at least eight hits in three of those games. His WHIP has now climbed up to 1.47, which is just shy of Lance Lynn’s. That means he will let this White Sox team get runners on base, leading to an easy cover of the over tonight.

Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox

• Time: 6:10 PM EST
• Starting Pitchers: LHP Jesus Luzardo (MIA) vs RHP Brayan Bello (BOS)
• Moneyline: Marlins +105 | Red Sox -125
• Run Line: Marlins +1.5 (-180) | Red Sox -1.5 (+155)
• Total: Over 9.5 (+100) | Under 9.5 (-120)

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings

My Pick: Under 9.5 (-120)

This total is way too high, so we are jumping on the under. One of the biggest reasons is the play of the Boston Red Sox offense. Their team average is under .200 over the last week, which has sent them into a rough losing streak. One of the reasons for their drop-off has been the struggles of Masataka Yoshida. The left fielder was on fire in May but has a .259 average in June. While that isn’t overly bad, the lack of power makes his ability to get on base paramount. Until he can turn things around, we’re avoiding betting on this Boston offense.

While their offense is struggling, the Red Sox will have an excellent young arm on the mound in Brayan Bello (5-4, 3.27 ERA). The 24-year-old has looked far better in his second season and seems to be improving as the season progresses. Bello has a 2.36 ERA across four starts this month, all of which qualified as quality starts. The pitcher has allowed more than three runs once this season, and we expect that to be the case again today.

Jesus Luzardo (6-5, 3.77 ERA) will get the start today for the Marlins. While he hasn’t been as good as Bello, the 25-year-old has posted back-to-back quality starts. That includes an impressive start against Pittsburgh, where he allowed two hits and no runs across seven innings. He has allowed two or fewer runs in three of his previous four starts, and that trend will continue tonight against a struggling Boston offense.

Houston Astros vs St. Louis Cardinals

• Time: 7:15 PM EST
• Starting Pitchers: RHP JP France (HOU) vs RHP Adam Wainwright (STL)
• Moneyline: Astros -110 | Cardinals -110
• Run Line: Astros -1.5 (+160) | Cardinals +1.5 (-190)
• Total: Over 9 (-115) | Under 9 (-105)

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings

My Pick: Astros -1.5 (+160)

Things have not been going well in Houston in June, but tonight will provide them a great chance to turn things around. One big reason for that is Alex Bregman, who has once again started to hit. The third baseman has been incredibly streaky this season, and the Astros' offense has felt it. With Yordan Alvarez still far from a return, the Astros need Bregman to produce to generate offense, and he has been doing it over the last week. Considering our pitching matchup tonight, we expect an impressive state line from the veteran tonight. 

We've been all over his opponent's run line when he has seen Adam Wainwright (3-2, 6.56 ERA) starting, and it's been a profitable strategy this season. The veteran may not make it through the year, as it appears he has finally reached the end of his impressive career. His 1.82 WHIP is brutal, resulting from allowing at least seven hits in each of his last five starts. Wainwright has been especially bad at home, with a 7.03 ERA across five starts. The veteran also has a 7.66 ERA across five-night games, which makes this bet an easy choice tonight.

JP France (2-3, 3.54 ERA) is another reason we love this bet. The rookie has looked good and played a crucial role in this rotation after they were hit with a slew of injuries. France has a 3.08 ERA across four starts this month, each qualifying as a quality start. That includes impressive outings versus the Angels and Dodgers, showing he can dominate good offenses. We see him cruising to another quality start tonight, leading to an east cover of the run line.