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Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, May 18

Written by: Michael Savio
Published May 18, 2023
13 min read
MLB Picks May 18

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox

  • Time: 2:10 PM EST
  • Starting Pitchers: LHP Logan Allen (CLE) vs RHP Dylan Cease (CHW)
  • Moneyline: Guardians +120 | White Sox -140
  • Run Line: Guardians +1.5 (-170) | White Sox -1.5 (+145)
  • Total: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

My Pick: White Sox -1.5 (+145 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Our first bet of the day comes from the worst division of 2023, the AL Central. Both teams have records under .500, thanks partly to offenses that have struggled. We knew the White Sox (16-28) would be bad, but the Guardians (19-23) were expected to compete for the division. Instead, they have consistently failed to generate offense all season, which is costing them a lot of games. Now they’ll need to try and break that trend today against one of the top pitchers in the AL last season.

Dylan Cease (2-2, 4.86 ERA) has had a rocky few weeks but bounced back in his last start to shut out the Astros over six innings. He has had some issues with control, but we saw him overcome that last season. We love his chances of another big start tonight as he faces a familiar foe in the Guardians. Cease posted a 1.96 ERA across four starts against Cleveland in 2022. On top of that, he owned an ERA of 1.44 in day games. Those stats and his bounce-back start last week have us loving the Sox run line.

The Cleveland offense is broken. Despite some powerful bats, they are 29th in batting average and 30th in home runs and RBIs. The struggles have led to many bad series losses, including to the Tigers, Marlins, and Rockies. It seems like this is an issue they’ll be dealing with all season, and it will be a problem today with Cease on the mound.

While Chicago hasn’t been great, their lineup has been far better in 2023. They will face rookie Logan Allen (1-1, 3.43 ERA) in what will be just his second road start of his career. We like the Sox to tag Allen for a few runs early, following up their impressive performance from last night.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals

  • Time: 7:45 PM EST
  • Starting Pitchers: LHP Julio Urias (LAD) vs RHP Adam Wainwright (STL)
  • Moneyline: Dodgers -145 | Cardinals +125
  • Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 (+110) | Cardinals +1.5 (-130)
  • Total: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

My Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (+110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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The Dodgers (28-16) will meet the St. Louis Cardinals (18-26) in a matchup of long-time NL powerhouses. The Dodgers are in the midst of another incredible season, but the Cardinals sit in the basement of the NL Central. Their offense struggled mightily out of the gate, but that has turned around over the last two weeks. They have had a resurgence, leading them to begin to turn things around. It’s been a promising sign, but it won’t continue tonight.

We love this bet because Adam Wainright (0-0, 7.20 ERA) will be on the mound tonight. He was initially scheduled to get the nod last night against the Brewers but was bumped, so his schedule is already off. The 41-year-old has been bad to begin the season, allowing 15 hits and eight runs over ten innings. Now he’ll be charged with figuring out a Dodger lineup that he’s posted an ERA over 4.00 against the last two seasons. The Dodgers' offense is as good as expected this season, ranking third in home runs and fourth in RBIs. That, combined with Wainright’s struggles, have us loving this run-line bet.

We also love this bet because of Julio Urias (5-3, 3.61 ERA). He’s been good this season but has struggled in his five starts in day games (1-3, 5.60 ERA). Fortunately, he has been sharp during night games like he’ll have tonight, going 4-0 with a 1.44 ERA. On top of that, Urias went 11-4 with a 1.94 ERA on the road in 2022. Considering those factors, along with the Cardinals' offensive struggles, it’s easy to see that the Dodgers' run line is the bet to make tonight. 

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets

  • Time: 1:10 PM EST
  • Starting Pitchers: RHP Taj Bradley (TB) vs RHP Tylor Megill (NYM)
  • Moneyline: Rays -105 | Mets -115
  • Run Line: Rays -1.5 (+155) | Mets +1.5 (-180)
  • Total: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

My Pick: Over 9 (+100 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Today’s final bet involves two teams that have been in many high-scoring games lately. Five of the Rays’ (33-11) last six games have had a total of over nine runs, while the Mets (20-24) have surpassed that total in three of their previous four games. That is a lot of runs being scored, and we love that trend to continue today with this pitching matchup.

Tylor Megill (4-2, 4.02 ERA) will get the start for the Mets today. He has been better in his third season in the big leagues but far from dominant. The pitcher has just one quality start over eight appearances, which was the only game he completed six full innings. The biggest issue is his inability to keep runners off the bases. While the ERA isn’t too scary, he is giving up a lot of hits and walks (1.51 WHIP). He has walked three or more batters in four of his last five starts, which is a significant number considering his throwing fewer than six innings. That will be a big issue today, as he faces the best offense in baseball.

The Rays have dominated offensively all season. They lead the league in batting average, home runs, RBIs, and hits while ranking fifth in stolen bases. That shows just how incredible they have been, and there are no signs they are slowing down. Add that to the fact that they have exceeded the run total in 63.2% of their road games (4th in MLB), and you can see why we love the overbet today. 

Conversely, the Mets' offense has struggled but has the talent to do a ton of damage. They have been hot lately, though poor pitching has prevented them from turning that into wins. We expect this trend to continue tonight with rookie Taj Bradley (3-0, 3.52 ERA) on the mound for Tampa. The rookie's lone career road start came against the Reds, but he’ll be in for a much different experience today at Citi Field. Expect the Mets to do some damage early, leading to an easy over.

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AUTHOR

Michael Savio

352 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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