Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, May 4

Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox

• Time: 6:11 PM EST

• Starting Pitchers: RHP Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs RHP Brayan Bello (BOS)

• Moneyline: Blue Jays -164 | Red Sox +138

• Run Line: Blue Jays -1.5 (+105) | Red Sox +1.5 (-126)

• Total: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

My Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (+105 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Red Sox offense has been coming alive as of late, but they will face a familiar foe today in Kevin Gausman (2-2, 2.33 ERA). The veteran starting pitcher has had a fantastic start to the season. He has five quality starts, and he didn’t allow an earned run in four of them. Gausman has issued just six walks this season while striking out 54. Those are some incredible stats early in the season, and signs point to that continuing today.

Gausman made six starts against Boston last season, posting an impressive 2.65 ERA. That means many of these Red Sox players have seen and struggled against him before. That is highlighted by Alex Verdugo and Rafael Devers going a combined 5-31 against the Jays starter over their careers. Boston’s bats have been hot, but we expect Gausman to help cool them off today.

Bryan Bello (0-1, 6.57 ERA) is the other reason we love the Toronto run line here. The 23-year-old has a ton of potential, but he has shown he still has a ways to go. He was shelled in his first two starts but bounced back to allow just one run over five innings in his next. However, that came against a Guardians offense that has not shown a lot of life. Bello saw Toronto twice last season and was awful. He lost both of his starts and posted a combined 7.62 ERA. The current Blue Jays lineup has a .444 batting average against the young Boston starter. Toronto’s offense has been cranking, and Bello and the Red Sox won’t stop them today.

Los Angeles Angels @ St. Louis Cardinals

• Time: 1:15 PM EST

• Starting Pitchers: RHP Griffin Canning (LAA) vs RHP Jack Flaherty (STL)

• Moneyline: Angels +116 | Cardinals -136

• Run Line: Angels +1.5 (-170) | Cardinals -1.5 (+140)

• Total: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-122)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

My Pick: Over 9 (+100)

The Angels and Cardinals actually have a lot in common in 2023. Both came in with high hopes but have stumbled a bit out of the gate. Both have struggled to score runs, leading to many low-scoring games, which have ended in losses. Fortunately, both have the talent to turn things around at the plate. The Angels have had Shohei Ohtani (.294 BA, 7 HR, 18 RBI) and Mike Trout (.297 BA, 7 HR, 18 RBI) swinging hot bats, and two solid power hitters join them in Hunter Renfroe (.259 BA, 7 HR, 20 RBI) and Brandon Drury (.235 BA, 6 HR, 18 RBI). 

Conversely, it is just a matter of time before the Cardinals start scoring runs. The team has been in the top ten in the MLB in hits, but they rank in the bottom half in RBIs and runs. Paul Goldschmidt (.304 BA, 4 HR, 14 RBI) and Nolan Arenado (.233 2 HR, 14 RBI) have failed to generate much power, but they’ll have a great chance to change that today.

Griffin Canning (1-0, 4.11 ERA) will take the mound for the Angels today. He has made three starts this season but only lasted about five innings in each. He has five walks in his last 10 ⅓ innings, along with eight hits and five runs. The pitcher missed 20 months of baseball after an injury to his lower back in 2021, meaning he is still working his way back into form. Canning did not look good before the injury, so there is no reason to think he will be sharp today.

Jack Flaherty (2-3, 3.94 ERA) will be getting the start for the Cardinals. He missed most of last season with an injury, and his return in 2023 has been a mixed bag. While the ERA is solid, he has been far from efficient. That was on full display in his last start, where he allowed seven hits, five runs (4 earned), and two walks over 4 ⅔ innings. Flaherty has 21 walks over six starts and has given up a home run in four straight games. Expect him to struggle against Trout, Ohtani, and the rest of this improving Angels lineup.

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox

• Time: 1:10 PM EST

• Starting Pitchers: RHP Pablo Lopez (MIN) vs RHP Lucas Giolito (CHW)

• Moneyline: Twins -132 | White Sox +112

• Run Line: Twins -1.5 (+1.22) | White Sox +1.5 (-146)

• Total: Over 7.5 (-122) | Under 7.5 (+100)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

My Pick: Under 7.5 (+100)

This is our favorite bet of the day. Both teams rank in the bottom ten in the league in batting average, and runs scored, relying on pitching to get wins. The Twins have been better at it, but they’ll face a familiar foe on the mound today. The same goes for the White Sox, who have a roster filled with holes. We expect both to struggle during this day game, especially considering the pitchers on the mound.

Pablo Lopez (2-2, 4.00 ERA) has not looked sharp over his last two starts, giving up 11 runs over ten innings. However, both of those starts came at home, a place where Lopez has struggled over the last couple of seasons. He has a 6.62 ERA at home this season and posted a 4.55 ERA at home in 2022. It was a different story on the road, where Lopez had a 3.00 ERA in 2022 and a 1.47 ERA this season. Lopez has a start against the White Sox this season and was electric. The pitcher allowed two runs and struck out ten over 7 ⅔ innings. We believe he will repeat this performance today in a badly needed-bounce-back game.

The White Sox will be going with veteran Lucas Giolito (1-2, 4.15 ERA) on the mound tonight. He has been hit or miss this season, but one of his best outings came against this Twins team. Giolito threw six innings, allowing one run and striking out seven. It’s hardly a surprise, given his past dominance of the Twins. Minnesota’s roster has a combined 187 at-bats against Gioltio but has only managed 19 RBIs and a .198 ERA. The Twins have talent but expect their bats to go quiet again against Giolito.

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