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Best MLB Prop Bets This Weekend | MLB Player Props, June 17-18

Written by: Michael Savio
Published June 17, 2023
13 min read
Best MLB Prop Bets This Weekend

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals

Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Hits (+115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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After a three-game streak without a hit, Arraez (.390 BA) went 5-5 at the plate last night. That includes a home run and a total of three RBIs. He went 5-5 earlier this month and followed that game up with four consecutive multi-hit performances. Arraez has more multi-hit games than anyone and leads all of baseball in batting average. Now he’ll be facing a struggling Nationals starter, which will lead to at least two hits tomorrow.

Jake Irvin (1-3, 5.81 ERA) will be starting for Washington tonight, and he’s a big reason we love this bet. Irvin has been pretty consistently bad all season. He has just one quality start over seven appearances and owns an ugly 1.68 WHIP. He's been especially bad over his last two starts, allowing 13 hits over nine combined innings. If Irvin sticks around for a few innings, expect Arraez to tag him for a couple of hits.

If Irvin doesn’t make it deep into the game, that will also give Arraez an advantage. The Nationals' bullpen features several relievers who have been unreliable in 2023. If the Marlins build a big lead and chase Irvin early, expect them to give one of their struggling pitchers a chance to get some work in. 

Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves

My Pick: Sean Murphy Over 0.5 Singles (-113 at Caesars Sportsbook)

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We love this bet for one of the top-hitting catchers in baseball. Sean Murphy (.285 BA, 12 HR, 42 RBI) is in the midst of the best season of his young career. A big reason for his success has been his increased batting average, which is well over his career average of .243. He has plenty of power, but he is also a catcher. That means extra-base hits are few and far between, as he mostly hits singles or home runs. He’ll be up against a new face on the mound tonight, but we love his chances to register a single today.

Connor Seabold (1-2, 4.70 ERA) did not have a good start to his first season as a full-time member of the starting rotation. He had an ugly 6.35 ERA in May, but he has been better in June. However, he showed some cracks in his last start by allowing six hits. He has been better about stranding runners on base, but all we need is for him to get Murphy to first base, and we see him doing just that tonight.

If Murphy can’t get a single off Seabold, he should have plenty of chances against the Rockies' bullpen. Several relievers have been hit hard over the last week, which is great news for the hot-hitting Murphy.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers

My Pick: Mitch Keller over 2.5 Earned Runs (+123 at Caesars Sportsbook)

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The Brewers' offense has been streaky, and right now, they are playing as well as they have all season. They have scored at least five runs in three of their last four games. They put up more than two runs on the opposing starter in two of those, including in their win last night. One of the players we see going deep is Wily Adames, who has a .333 batting average against Keller. Adames has been incredibly streaky, and he has been trending in the wrong direction. We know he is better than this, and facing a familiar face will be what he needs to break out of this slump.

Mitch Keller (8-2, 3.41 ERA) has been a big reason for the Pirates’ success so far this season. He looked like a true ace until mid-April. Now he has allowed at least four runs in three of his last four starts. Keller has been giving up a lot of hits and walks, giving opponents plenty of scoring opportunities. He has also struggled on the road this season, where he owns a 4.10 ERA. In his last two road starts, Keller has allowed ten runs on 17 hits over 12 innings. Combine that with the Brewers’ hot offense, and you have an easy cover on this bet.

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Michael Savio

423 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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