Best Prop Bets This Weekend | MLB Player Props May 20-21

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies

My Pick: Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Total Bases (+133 Caesars Sportsbook)

Nick Castellanos (.300 BA 5 HR, 26 RBI) seems to be back to his old self in his second season with the Phillies. He already has almost half of his home run and RBI total from last season, with an extra 33 points added to his batting average. He seems much more comfortable, and he’s been carrying a lot of their offense this season. Though he struggled on their recent road trip, Castellanos will be back home in Philly today, where he owns a .420 batting average.

A big reason we love this bet is that Castellanos hasn’t just been getting on base, he has been a doubles machine. His 14 two-baggers are the seventh-highest total in the league, with nine of them coming at home, 12 coming against right-handers, and 10 coming in day games. All three of those factors will be in play tonight, making this our prop bet lock of the day.

If you still aren’t sold, then take a look at his opponent tonight. Jameson Taillon (0-2, 6.66 ERA) will get the start for Chicago. He’s been bad this season, and opponents have been hitting him hard. He has not lasted more than 4 ⅔ innings in a game this month, posting a combined 9.58 ERA. While he doesn’t give up a lot of home runs, he does give up extra-base hits. In his 10 ⅓ innings pitched in May, he has given up three doubles and two home runs. That includes the two doubles he gave up in the first inning of his previous start. Lock this bet in before the line moves anymore.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays

My Pick: Alek Manoah Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-104 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Things have gone very badly for Alek Manoah (1-4, 5.40 ERA) in 2023. After being one of the pre-season favorites to win the AL Cy Young, Manoah has taken a big step backward in 2023. He is struggling badly with his control, and teams have caught on. In his last start, he walked seven batters over four innings. The start before that, he walked four batters in less than five innings. In his three May starts, he has combined for a 6.59 ERA, 12 walks, and 18 hits over 13.2 innings pitched. He has not struck out more than three in any of those starts. These stats alone make this a smart bet, but there is more.

Manoah’s prospects for tonight get even worst when you dig deeper into the young pitcher’s stats. For example, he has been getting shelled at home this season. He owns an 8.50 ERA over four starts with a .333 opponent batting average. His three-day games have also been ugly, as he owns a 7.20 ERA.

While those stats all point to a tough night for the Blue Jays pitcher, there is also the fact that they are playing a top offense in the league. The Orioles are top ten in the league in hits, home runs, and RBIs. They also have the eighth fewest strikeouts of anyone in the MLB. While they haven’t been great against Manoah the last two years, this is not the same pitcher. We see a big night from Baltimore leading to an early exit for Manoah.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays

My Pick: Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 Home Runs (+410)

This is our best value prop bet of the weekend, as there are a lot of signs pointing to Randy Arozarena getting home run number 11 on Saturday. The left fielder has boosted his power numbers in 2023, as he is on pace to surpass his career-high total (20) easily. He has been seeing the ball very well this season, as shown by his batting average, which is a big reason he’s been able to increase his power. The most impressive part is that his splits are almost even when looking at home/away and left/right. The one split with a big difference is his play in day games, where he owns a .361 batting average. With numbers like that, this is a great bet to take a +410.

The other reason we love this bet is Eric Lauer (4-4, 4.54 ERA). The Brewers pitcher will get the start tonight and be looking to turn things around after an ugly May. One of the reasons he has struggled in 2023 has been his inability to keep the ball in the park. Over his last two starts, he has allowed four home runs in nine innings. Lauer has surrendered the ninth most home runs this season (10), and we see that trend continuing tonight.

If those numbers aren’t enough, there is also the fact that Lauer has struggled against Tampa in the past. That includes last season, where he allowed three runs and six hits over 4.1 innings. Considering all of these stats, we see him helping put money in our pockets by giving up a home run to Arozarena today.

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